Eye in the Sky Report: October 29, 2016

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Eye in the Sky Report: 2016 Kansas City Chiefs

October 29, 2016

By John Cooney

Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind

 

It is amazing how Coach Reid has his teams prepared and winning after the bye week break. KC is 2-0 after the week 5 bye; way to go Big Red!

 

After taking down the Raiders in week 6 and lifting Coach Reid’s post-bye record to 14-2, the Saints came marchin’ in for week 7. Though the score was 27-21 and New Orleans prolific passer Drew Bress racked up 367 yards and 3 TDs, the game really wasn’t that close. Saints went up 7-0 early but the Chiefs answered with 21 straight points and honestly the game never seemed in doubt.

 

Game Balls:

Safety Daniel Sorensen had 6 solo tackles, a sack and a 48-yard pick-6; OUTSTANDING! RB Spencer Ware racked up 131 Yards From Scrimmage and a Td receiving, and Tyreek Hill, our KR/WR, created 61 yards of offense on 2 rushes for 23 yards and hauling in 1 pass for a 38-yard score. The guy is simply electric!

 

Housekeeping and injury notes:

RB Jamaal Charles is bothered by a swelling in his knee and will be inactive for Sunday’s game against the Colts.

DB D.J. White broke his hand in Week 7 and will be inactive against the Colts on Sunday.

OLBTamba Hali is dealing with a knee injury and it is unclear if he will participate in Sunday’s game against the Colts.

OL Mitchell Schwartz is dealing with an ankle injury and his status for Sunday’s game against the Colts is unclear.

LB Sio Moore missed the previous game due to an illness and it is unknown if he will play against the Colts on Sunday.

OL Jordan Devey missed the last game due to an ankle injury and it is unclear if he will take the field against the Colts on Sunday.

CB Phillip Gaines sat out the previous game due to a knee injury and it is undetermined if he will play against the Colts on Sunday.

 

OK, let’s get to week 8 as the club rolls into Indianapolis to take on Andrew Luck and the Colts.

 

We all know that RB Knile Davis was traded to the Packers last week, but just wondering how close RB Charcandrick West came to being a Packer before both teams settled on Davis? I have a feeling if RB Jamaal Charles knee(s) weren’t so cranky West may be in Green Bay this week. Charles, pronounced 110% ready last week, played just 2 snaps; he is NOT close to healthy and is OUT for week 8. RB Spencer Ware is once again the big Chief in the backfield and has a juicy week8 matchup with the Colts. Indy gives up 4.8 YPC to RBs and 10 total TDs (6 run- 4 receiving. Ware is rocking 5.2 YPC this season and has gotten over 80 YFS every game this year. The ramblin’ rusher has 294 YFS and 2 TDs in the last 2 games. Until Charles shows he can stay on the field, nix his FFB play in lineups. Indy has been gashed by RBs for 100+ rushing yards in 3 consecutive games. Backs have scored 4 combined TDs over the last 2 games (2 run- 2 receiving). Ware is an underrated receiver and his off-season work in that skill has paid off… Indy has let up 100 receptions to WRs, 5th most in the NFL. Despite the voluminous allowance of catches, Colts’ DBs cap WRs to just 3 TDs all season. KC seems to have reverted to a conservative, run-first game plan. QB Alex Smith has thrown the ball 22 and 24 times in last 2 tilts. But Smith is getting a surprising 9.5 YPA since coming out of the break, assisted by big YAC by Ware and WR Tyreek Hill. Their post-catch work has contributed to the inflated YPA of Smith over the last 2 contests. Indy gives up 7.7 YPA to QBs and 67.7% passing. This is a defense built for Smith’s dart-throwing style. .No KC WR has surpassed 78 yards receiving this season, which is surprising but disappointing at the same time. KC WRs combined for just 2 TDs over the last 5 games and only 1 KC WR has scored on the road (Hill). The exciting rookie WR, Hill, actually owns 3 of the 4 KC WR TDs. He is a catch-n-go blur on the field and needs just a touch to score. It would be nice to see more footballs in his hands on offense. Something tells me that is in the work. Chris Conley, the player I felt was on the cusp of breaking out after the bye, has barely been involved and I’m afraid Coach is wasting yet another WR talent. TE Travis Kelce has a hot matchup here as the Colts have been burned for 40 catches by TEs, 3rd most in the league. KC is clearly back to run-first mode and Ware is the YFS monster for his FFB coaches. WR Hill is sneaky good as a WR3, owning 3 of the KC 4 WR scores this season. Hill can house-it anywhere on the field, and is exciting microwave FFB points just waiting to happen. If the Colts turn this into a track meet, Hill could flat-out shine here.

 

It ain’t broke so Coach Reid won’t fix it! RB Spencer Ware is on a roll as Jamaal Charles clearly is still “broken”. The Colts field a defense that KC will ‘Ware’ on. The Colts will obviously try to take the Chiefs out of the comfy ground mode and force Alex Smith to go toe-to-toe with Luck. It could very well happen as CB Phillip Gaines is out and his stand-in, Steve Nelson, has been the target of opposing QBs, and for good reason. He’s a nice slotCB, but no outside cover guy. The Chiefs’ wide receivers are a talented group, but they are also the 4th least utilized bunch in the NFL. Indy’s secondary practices full-blown bend-don’t-break play, allowing 100 WR catches but stiffening near the endzone for a meager 3 WR scores. KC WRs have combined for 4 TDs all season. Jeremy Maclin might have modest PPR value this week, but that’s about it. Rookie Tyreek Hill is the microwave TD scorer of the bunch; Indy plays to prevent his type from the quick-6.

 

For the IDP folks out there, as I said Steve Nelson has a bullseye on his back and though he gets beat early and often, he makes tackles and that’s good IDP value in a weird way. Nelson had 8 solo tackles last week. Eventually a QB is going to be off the mark and Nelson will add a pick to 2 to his stat lines. In fantasy football, good on-the-field CBs are usually not good FFB starters as opposing passers avoid those guys, like Marcus Peters. Well, he may be the exception since he is ALWAYS around the football. Guys like Nelson are solid IDP plays because they are always picked on by QBs, and that leads to tackles. BTW, for TY Hilton fantasy coaches, gotta love his week 8 prospects! ILB Ramik Wilson tallied 8 tackles of his own last week, 5 solo. Wilson chases the ball and is a good bet for 6-8 take downs a week. Love those Georgia players! AS I said, Peters being the exception to the “good” CB IDP rule, play him, especially with the Colts trying to force an aerial show in this one. Can’t recommend Dee Ford anymore, even against a sack-prone o-line like the Colts. He is just not getting there. Looked like he was breaking out a couple of weeks ago, but just a mirage.

 

This should be a great study in contrasting styles of offense. The Chiefs will force their dominating ground offensive on the Colts while Indy counters with an aerial assault. Honestly, I’d love to be wrong here and see the Chiefs air it out, getting dangerous Tyreek Hill the ball on that fast turf in the dome. In any event, it’ll be a fun game to watch.

 

John Cooney is a Senior Staff Writer for Fantasy Football Mastermind.

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  • Gaines was Full Practice Thursday, which means he should start, which puts Nelson back in his comfort zone in the slot. If Reid plays his playbook right, you will see another week which favors snaps for the run v pass. When passing, look for some deep routes but behind it, the Chiefs should see crossing routes short and intermediate, so layering it ought to be factor. I like Ware to be a big dose of mean and also may be a factor in the aerial game, much to Indy’s chagrin. He is fast, and quick, which means LBs will have trouble covering him, especially if Reid mixes the plays up appropriately. If getting first downs, and moving the chains, play action over smartsy-gimmicky baloney but Reid will fubar that(take the playcalling away from him please). If Gaines is good to go, we are going to be okay and a pass rush simplified if Poe takes on 2 and Chris Jones plus the edge rushers get their shot. I think running between tackles should free up the aerial attack and make play action very effective.