Making Sense Of The Chiefs Draft

 

What a whirlwind weekend! Chiefs traded up three times and changed their 10 picks into six. Just about everyone was thrilled to see the Chiefs take a big swing on a QB for the first time since 1983. After that though, most fans started to get a bit nervous. Chiefs went from a hugely popular player to a bunch of under the radar guys and left the draft with few clear starters. Are Chiefs so confident in their current roster that they really weren’t concerned about finding starters? Maybe. Did the loss of Chris Ballard hurt their draft efforts? It’s certainly possible. Perhaps we’re all concerned about nothing and Dorsey, being a much better evaluator of talent than myself, snagged excellent talent and we just don’t realize it yet. I think the real answer to this question is nuanced and has to include a variety of factors. This is my best shot at explaining it.

The Chiefs Draft Position in Each Round

Success has its downside. The Chiefs found themselves selecting players near the bottom of the draft. Considering they also had to trade into the top 10, we shouldn’t be that surprised that there was some cost associated. K.C. typically comes away from each draft with two new starters. This year is different because the Chiefs spent their first round pick, which would usually be an instant starter, on a QB who has the potential to be elite but, will need at least a year to develop. They also used their third round pick (and next year’s first). The Chiefs have also often found starters in the third round.

Fortunately, they were able to trade up higher in the third and grab the most likely day one starter of the bunch in running back Kareem Hunt, but it cost them their 4th round pick. This is a move they wouldn’t have had to make if they didn’t go up and get a QBOTF like Mahomes. If you like that pick, you have to live with the move to get RB  Kareem Hunt. The Chiefs had some players they really liked, but picking low in the draft made it tough to get those guys. The Chiefs seem to have mostly gambled on future potential over present talent. It’s a risky approach, but it could pay off.

Difficulty of Schedule and Lack of Confidence

Call me a cynic, but I think this factored in. The Chiefs have the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL this year. If they even reach the playoffs, which I think they still will, they’ll be leaning on Smith who looked pretty awful against the Steelers last year. If the chances of reaching the Super Bowl this year are pretty slim, why not get some players with big upside who will be ready next year when the Chiefs will have an easier schedule and, probably, a better QB. If the Chiefs thought they had a real shot of winning the big game with Smith, they would have loaded up on defense and TEs, or traded up for a top RB like McCaffrey. By drafting a RB and WR in the mid rounds, Chiefs got two guys who will be in full swing next year, and will spend this off-season developing chemistry with Mahomes by playing with the 2s in training camp. The Chiefs grabbed a QB they believe in, and then immediately set about preparing for his future. You don’t do that unless you’re not happy with your present.

Salary Cap Issues Moving Forward

Chiefs are tighter against the cap than just about anybody, and while drafting a QB will help with that, in the long run, it makes matters worse for this year. The Chiefs had to cut Jaye Howard, and in a draft that was thin on DL, picking Kpassagnon early was probably influenced by that. Kansas City’s first four picks are all at positions where Chiefs can clear some cap space by cutting, or not re-signing, a veteran next year.

Dealing With Their Roster Depth

The Chiefs lost basically nothing in free agency. Poe was replaced with Logan, which I actually believe will prove to be an upgrade. Charles hasn’t been healthy in forever. Chiefs cut Howard and lost Reyes, but Chiefs didn’t have Howard most of the year last year anyway, and they had picked Reyes up off the street. Mauga came to the Chiefs as an injury prone ILB and left the same way. The Chiefs are staring down a roster with 3-6 spots up for grabs and, even with all the trades, they drafted 6 guys. You can draft all the talent in the world, but those guys won’t do you any good when you have to try to sneak them through waivers. Chiefs reputation for finding talent is too big. Somebody’s going to take a look at their leftovers.

If you barely have any money, why waste it signing rookies you only wish you could keep. The Chiefs settled on guys they could afford at positions where they had room and kept rolling with the rest of a very talented roster. If the Chiefs UDFA signings look less than impressive, it’s probably because most agents are too smart to let their clients compete to make this roster. Dorsey has built a great team and they’re gambling on roster continuity to get them through this year. Considering their track record, it’s really not a bad bet.

Using Risk and Reward, Cause and Effect

Once the Chiefs decided to draft Mahomes, it shaped their entire draft, but honestly, their strategy has been shifting towards a higher risk model for a while. Fisher was a safe pick, Ford was a bit riskier, but still a pretty standard first round pick. After that, Chiefs took a big risk on Marcus Peters. Chris Jones is considered a steal now, but he was boom or bust at the time. KeiVarae Russel was a risk that didn’t pay off, Hill paid off big time. With a nearly intact roster from last year, the Chiefs feel comfortable swinging for the fences on every pick. I’m ok with that approach for now. Drafting is like investing, the biggest returns come from high-risk investments, but so do the biggest losses. If the Chiefs hit on most of their picks, they’ll be a much better roster, but if they start to miss on too many, they’ll have to go back to the conservative approach to rebuild their depth.

Ransom’s Bonus Thought

The Chiefs still technically run a 3-4 defense, but they’re hardly ever in the base personnel you would traditionally associate with a 3-4. This is carrying over into their draft strategy. While many of us wanted to see a NT selected, the Chiefs haven’t shown much interest in securing true NTs these days. The role of NT, for the Chiefs, is generally played by a stout DT whose true strength is pushing the pocket against zero personnel groupings (5WRs). Between Justin Houston and Tanoh Kpassagnon, the Chiefs actually have the personnel to mix in some true 4-3 looks if DC Bob Sutton wants to. In the modern NFL, versatility is king. D-line guys who can only do one thing get drafted on the third day or not at all.

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