NSLU: A New Lineman, Go-No Go, Mile High, ‘Auld Lang Syne’, and 2018’s QB Starter

 

 

 

First off before the “Next” —

a New Offensive Lineman

 

The Chiefs signed Andrew Wylie to the Practice Squad. He is 6-5, 310, a 2016 UDFA. In 2017 he joined the Ravens in May 2017. From there, he went to the Colts and then the Browns PS. His collegiate experience was at Eastern Michigan, 46 of 47 games, 3rd team All-American Conference his Sr. yr, 2016.

 

Next: 2018 — Go or No-Go?

A lot of hype is going round the various circuits, including Arrowheadone. What’s it about? Excitement over starting Patrick Mahomes at Denver in Week 17. In 2018, almost everyone believes he will take over the reins and Al Smith’s time as a Chief will have ended before June First.

 

I am not a fan of this approach and I will give examples of why this is so: Rodgers/Favre, Brady/Garappolo, Montana/Young, Al Smith/Kaepernick, to name just a few. How about we add in 1st round QB picks that were thrown to a starting role? Bortles, Mariotta and Lynch are good examples, but there are more.

 

Successful Handoffs Favor a 2-year wait or even more

There are several exceptions to this, but the first two on my list provide glaring examples as to why waiting and giving 2 years growth time to new QBs before his first full season under center. The exceptions you can list but how many of those new QBs as new Starters out of the gate got to the playoffs?

 

Questions About Year Two?

Here I want to give notice related to the performance fall-off in the 2nd year, notably Dak and Carr. After Defensive Coordinators have a full season of film to study, they “Figure it out” at NFL Speed. Carr may be the better example than you are willing to admit. Bortles struggled mightily in his first season and didn’t appear to have it all improved gradually. Marietta is a lot more questionable. Right now? Trubisky had a mighty strong test which likely will see some negatives Sunday as will Goff.

 

You might even select Cam Newton as another…big bang, first year, but his second and third have been full of ups and downs and some of this is largely due to his decision making on the field. Newton has a ton of talent. I think he thinks too much of himself. My judgement about this is one of maturity and he often demonstrates the lack of it. All the more reason to delay the starting role for QBs with talent.

 

Let’s take Al Smith. Here he is at 33 having his best season ever(despite the losing skid). His numbers are extremely comparable to those of Tom Brady, which makes him the #2 QB in the NFL in my view for 2017. He is and has been a candidate for MVP.

 

Yes, he has had perhaps 3 games where he was “off”. But then, so has Brady; think back to week 1 as an example. That is part of the game and it’s part of the “Parity” Program which the NFL is has been pushing for 20 years. When Al Smith was given a true #1 WR in Hill(meaning, not Dwayne Bowe, a possession receiver not a #1 deep threat), look at what he has accomplished. This without his #2(Conley) though Bert Wilson officially occupied that spot.

 

It then, for a starting QB, takes time and experience to learn how to adjust, when to do so and why. This has applicability and effect when viewing the QB coach and especially being in sync with the offensive Coordinator and play-caller. When the defenses make adjustments, the QB and staff need to shift away from what the defense is now doing on the fly, exploiting the skill set in making appropriate adjustments to what defenses are taking away requires a special foundation. You don’t get that type of “read” from most young QBs. On the thread today, Laddie posted to the topic, a comparison of numbers, Smith to Brady. I think that is a superb example.

 

So as not to attempt to obscure the fact that I have been an Al Smith promoter since his arrival, I am plainly stating that this is the case. Mahomes, in his rookie contract is set under the $4m level. Al Smith will make a $20m this year and has, according to PM himself, and coaches on the staff, a perfect mentor for Mahomes. If Smith garnered what he was worth with an extension it would, after this seasons numbers, approach the $25m mark for 2018. Mahomes will still be under $5m. That is too large a load but as noted, I would really like to see PM #2 for another season because when he breaks into the starting role, I would love to see him excel beyond all expectations.

 

There are a lot of nuances to this topic and it is a good discussion piece. If you comment about this, please note your own observations on successes and failures of young QBs and why this or that occurred. It is a worthy topic and one that needs a deeper examination than Hyping Patrick Mahomes, or being an Al Smith Detractor.

 

Smith and the Reality

I am going to go with Smith remaining the Chiefs starter in 2018. Why? Above what was covered in my view of things — the exposure of having a rookie in real NFL games start without having time to understudy. I provided a couple of major players who came to their team and were highly successful as they matured and gained knowledge, Playbook expertise and the understudy with a successful quarterback as a mentor. Too, it matters who the QB coach is and the offensive coordinator.

 

In KC, swapping out Andy Reid play-calling has been a resounding success and it has mattered in the results with the current win streak. This allowed Andy Reid to be “head coach” in the game without being distracted play after play with his cheat sheet.

 

Jeff Rosen made this observation about Al Smith: “Chiefs QB Alex Smith will become the first player in NFL HISTORY to have 5 straight seasons of 3,000+ yards and 10 or fewer interceptions. Has 4,042, yds, 26 TDs, 5 INTs in 2017.”

 

Sunday at Mile High

There was no meaning to this game at all. The Chiefs gain nothing win or lose and the Broncos will not make the playoffs. Someone might very well be injured and that is something the Chiefs need to avoid at all cost. I still want them to roll out the end of the season with 10 wins and I desired to see Patrick Mahomes be highly successful… And he was. In the end, he engineered a game winning drive at the end of the game. This was really superb stuff.

 

Purely and simply, getting a win it is a matter of pride and it is the honor of playing in the historical AFL West. Of course, Denver was not and cannot be the dastardly Oakland Raiders. Nothing, absolutely nothing can replace that old rivalry with a dreaded and hated foe.

 

What we saw Sunday though, is Patrick Mahomes at the helm for the first time and it appeared to me that he was a huge success. How about you? One bad throw and an INT and the rest? Big thumbs up.

 

Reid put Bray in the game who immediately erred. He was not successful and I see no reason for him to get a 5th year deal. See that topic below.

 

We were witness to many starters sitting out a good portion of the game and still winning, to finish 2017 as a 10-6 record division winner. That 2 games less than I predicted. On the day? It came down to the Titans getting a win 15-10 over the Jaguars.

 

Players I Looked forward to Seeing Play

Tanoh Kpassagnon at OLB, for me, acquitted himself very well. In the end result, with Ford a non-pereformer at a level we can accept, and Tamba Hali a no-show tells me a lot about 2018.

 

Ukeme Eligwe too. He was not as smooth and as intrusively reactive for the game, but played at NFL speed… I think that translates to a lot of ILB competition come OTA’s and Spring Training. Perhaps what I am saying is that for Inside and Outside, my big worries that led into the 2017 draft may be solved, especially since Brett Veach brought in Reggie Ragland.

 

Think on this — Kevin Pierre-Louis(KP-L) wasn’t going to go, DJ sat and for me, that is good stuff.

 

At RB we should have seen West but he is out with illness and we all witnessed Anthony Sherman getting a lot of snaps and playing RB. He is a very solid player and runs over people. Andy Reid? Pay attention.

 

Kevin Acker was out due to illness. Also Charcandrick West was ruled out for the same reason and Hill being out gave Robinson an opportunity to get targets. Unfortunately for him, he dropped a couple of TDs. But consider this? He has been timing with Al Smith and hasn’t played with Mahomes at QB since Pre-season. It does take timing and familiarity. I will give this one a pass until 2018 and see where we are.

 

 

Due to West being out, we should saw a lot of Sherman and I liked that.

 

 

The secondary will saw guys who are not starters as much as possible. Gaines, Murray, Sorensen, etc. The latter two though, play an important role for the defense. Gaines was again hurt in this game and this makes me wondre at his future as a slot CB. Well, to be truthful? I questioned his return in 2018 anyway, during the season and mentioned it a couple of times.

 

So okay, Bert Wilson made an impression in this game. See my comments though, below.

 

When we needed to see Cam Erving in the front 5, it turned out not to be possible as he was not available for this game, also with illness.

 

As far as I know, the Chiefs had no major injuries. Let’s just hope that none of our starters are injured.

 

Auld Lang Syne for 2018 

I think this is a logical subject because we are going to see some young guys play at Denver. One thing that bodes well for the Chiefs is the LB corp. I really believed in Ragland at the time of the draft and for me, Ukeme Eligwe proved my point about himself inside. Outside? Tanoh Kpassagnon also proved he can play at NFL speed, had a sack and played very well. This for me, as noted is part of the solution for 2018 –  Brett Veach(GM) made a move and brought Ragland in which has turned out to give us a “MIKE” for the foreseeable future.  On top of that, we have KP-L, Ramik Wilson and the yet to be proven Terrance Smith.

 

So for whom will the song apply? I am venturing into future territory here but my list for who won’t be suiting up in Red and Gold follows.

 

Bennie Logan — will command too much money

 

Dustin Colquitt — would be in his 14th season and it is a Free Agent year as well, and that is big money for him in a contract year as well. The Chiefs brought in 2 punters for trials over the past 2 weeks — that is tea leaves for me and someone else I saw today wrote about it. In truth,  thought he might be gone before this season but that turned out not to be the case.

 

Bert Wilson — despite showing that he can play, is again and will always be on my cut list. Not that I don’t like him, it’s just for 2 seasons he did little and in his contract year, he showed up. I will not count on him playing with a new contract. Maybe they have to keep him but with Conley and Robinson? I don’t see the point and yes he finally lived up to what we expct. His skill set has speed but he doesn”t have length, nor the upside of Chris Conley, Demarcuss Robinson nor Jehu Chesson. I color him in another uni in 2018.

 

DJ — as mentioned oft times this season — he has lost speed and his ability to stop on a dime and cut back to the ball. If a miracle happens? Different story but with two Achilles tears in 3 years? I think he is done. This one for me is hard to swallow as is Hali Below.

 

Tamba Hali — offered nothing this season and little last. Another Chiefs we love to love but it is time to read ’em an weep.

 

Dee Ford  — a big disappointment for me, really. I kept holding out in hope but the truth is, the only way we should keep him is if we can’t figure an alternative including the 43 defense).

 

Darrelle Revis — brought in as a stop gap but his 2018 money is hard to swallow.

 

DAT — just doesn’t offer enough to make it worth the while.

 

Tyler Bray — I just don’t see his value. Maybe it’s there and he is #3 but he is getting monies if retained for a 5 year Pro. I color him gone and Veach will need to find a young replacement in the spring.

 

So is 2018 Sans Al Smith? ???? — This view is “Contrarian” to Many

 

This is going to be hard to ignore and the reason follows below. Besides, Patrick Mahomes played very well vs. the Broncos and all the proponents are going bonkers. The Al Smith Detractors continue their spiel and it is plain wrong.

 

It is my view that Al Smith is the starter in 2018. You don’t replace the QB who is probably the #2 BY THE STATS QB IN THE 2017  NFL. Most NFL teams try to stay under the $20m-25m and the Chiefs can do that with Smith/Mahomes.  Previous NSLU articles provided a view of how Cheap Smith’s contract was as time passed and other QBs of his stature were getting upwards of $25m, and then add the numbers for the #2 and #3 QB on top of that. The Chiefs are in a good situation with both players with Al Smith’s cap number at $20m and Patrick Mahomes at $3.7m. That is a lot less for the 1/2 Combo than many teams with a top QB and backup of a lot of talent. Even though many don’t see this, it gives the Chiefs a chance to have a solid #2 while totally grooming him for taking over. You have a #2 that is skilled but is too much of a slinger, still learning the ropes and who needs to mature. Another season with Smith as Mentor? I think would be a boon to PM’s career. Of course, this is counter to a lot of fans who are constant critics of Smith, but for that matter, constant critics of this or that player, which I am as well of an opposing view.

 

Here I would point to the Patriots in 2018, sans Garappolo. I have not covered Dead Money in my “Cut” list but when I compare the situation to NE, the Chiefs are would have double that depending on who they release and Al Smith’s dead money would be a large figure compared to New England’s $7m+dead money number.

 

I am also not favor of chancing a missed playoff spot and would hate to see a losing season due to an unseasoned QB.  and the situation appears to dictate that Smith is gone. We can color it green, or we can color it not winning the big game or whatever you choose. Smith brought winning back to KC and has extremely good numbers by the stats as noted above. . But I am not wholly a by-the-numbers type author, fan or observer.

 

True, I have supported Smith all along and time after time in discussion, went with the top stat for QBs: The W-L stat. I have countered the critiques made regarding his passing and game management label and noted the Philly QB who is now and NFL announcer who viewed being a game manager as a compliment. This QB won a Super Bowl by the way.

 

In no way is this a view that is detrimental to the arrival of Patrick Mahomes. The decision to trade picks to move up to #10 in the 2017 draft was extremely costly. It behooves the Chiefs not to toss him to the wolves and ensure his readiness for taking over the reins under center. But the needs of the Chiefs on defense were glaringly obvious in the 2016 season and they couldn’t be resolved with the draft if the trade of Picks to get Patrick Mahomes into the fold.What’s done is done.

 

It is my view that the drafting Mahomes came from the top and Andy Reid. I do not think that the 2017 draft was approached as John Dorsey has demonstrated. That draft was Defense Heavy with players who would surely have fit the bill to cover the exposures that were present.

 

Too, there was a cap problem at the same time so I can see Dorsey trading up to use picks to select players who were tops on his draft board and getting at least 2 starters out of the deal. But that is just my speculation.

 

It is my hope that Patrick Mahomes lives up to expectation and succeeds beyond my wildest dreams — As one of our members is wont to exclaim, Viva la Mahomes. Okay. So we go with it. But it is my view that it will be 2019 and we are seeing PM get his NFL feet wet in week 17.

 

David Bell

Houston, TX

 

 

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  • Laurels and limitations

    Andrew Wylie must have stolen all of his brother, Devon’s, food when they were growing up. Andrew is sooo much bigger.

  • I erred on the QB winning the Super Bowl, they lost. I was referring to Jaws and he won the NFC championship but the Eagles lost to the Raiders in the Super Bowl. His history is very interesting, the last year, being in the friendly confines of the Kingdom. I have a lot of respect for Jaws, one of the few Philly players that I did follow, having spent time in Philly at the 79-80 time frame, so, downtown living in a hotel and visiting 10 Penn Ctr. Philly is one of the teams that I love to dislike. The other is Baltimore. huh.

  • Laurels and limitations

    #Broncos GM John Elway has told coach Vance Joseph he’s back for 2018, as expected. Expect staff changes.— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 1, 2018

    • what happened at Denver was not a problem with Joseph. Elway jumped this way and that, set the stage for inconsistency. I am really curious about Lewis. I think he will move up into management as opposed to staying on as HC. But that is just my inclination at this time.

    • Hey! I am expecting a firestorm vis a vis Mahomes. I figured you to start the flames.

      • Laurels and limitations

        just gearing up bub. I gave your article a second reading just so I could confirm just how absolutely insane you are, lol. I’m compiling as we speak.

  • ladner morse

    Gag me like a huge horse sized gag…
    .
    https://twitter.com/johnelway/status/947880673511055365

    • PaulFromNorthMo

      That’s a good thing. Denver will be irrelevant again next year.

      • Chiefly Bacon

        I think they will be irrelevant, but Elway actually made the right call. Even if Vance turns out to be the reason they suck, it’s too early to tell whether that’s the case or whether he’s just stuck with a terrible offense. If Elway had fired him, after one year, he’d have a heck of a time finding decent coaching candidates who wanted the job.

        • PaulFromNorthMo

          You’re right, of course, with the QB situation Joseph has dealt with all year, he didn’t stand much of a chance. I’m not sure how tie breakers will shake out but Elway will be picking somewhere from 5-8, so I’m guessing he goes QB. Dorsey will have 1 and 3, so he’s loaded.

        • larry mckinney

          Very true. Five assistants were let go. Continuity is lacking here. Grateful for the Kingdom’s wealth in this regard. Really do feel this donkey group will have trouble attracting another Manning (Cousins, Brees) to take them to the promised land. And the young players of today don’t hold Elway in the same light as players of 5 years ago. They didn’t know him when they were kids.

  • ladner morse

    FYI… one Jon Gruden will be calling the Chiefs’ playoff game this Saturday.

    Makes you go hmm….

    • PaulFromNorthMo

      Probably a good thing it’s not Romo!

      • Laurels and limitations

        NO HOMO announcing KC games….it is never a good thing.

        • ladner morse

          HOMO… as in “homogenized” milk… right?

          • PaulFromNorthMo

            I figured that was a typo

          • Laurels and limitations

            I actually didn’t mean to type that, lol. The fact that I did makes me laugh though.

    • ladner morse
      • PaulFromNorthMo

        It won’t matter, Chiefs offense will have a different look next year. And besides, they’re still the Faiders.

    • Laurels and limitations

      won’t matter…..if Mahomes is indeed, the starter next season, the offense will be new(ish).

  • ladner morse
  • ladner morse
  • Laurels and limitations

    Okay, while I’m working on other stuff I’ll put this out there as hor devoures:

    Versus Denver in 2017:
    Smith, Alex. Nickname, “Captain-happy-feet-with-very-bad-pocket-presence”. (not the nickname I gave him, the team gave it to him. Laddie would bar me from the site if I typed MY name for Smith on here).

    yds.= 202. 6.52 yds/att. 45.2% completion. 77.6 RAT. 39.5 QBR. 1 TD.
    Leading Receiver= Travis Kelce, 133 yds.
    Leading Rusher= Kareem Hunt, 46 yds.

    Mahomes, Patrick II. Nickname, “Clark-Hunts-method-of-apology-for-30-damn-years-of rehash-QBs”, “greatest-arm-ever”, “purgatory-for-all-those-who-naysay”,

    yds.=284. 8.11 yds/att. 62.9% completion. 76.4 RAT, 58.2 QBR. no tds (damnit).
    Leading receiver= Albert Freakin’ Wilson, 147 yds
    Leading Rusher= Anthony “Sausage” Sherman esq. 40 yds. but Hunt came in for his 27 to get the title (was it 27? that’s close enough)

    Smith with the first team in a system he has worked for 5 years in comparison to a rookie QB with mainly second string guys he just met last week. Mahomes did so well that they pulled him out so Bray could play. But alas, Bray was so bad that Mahomes had to return to field of battle and run a near perfect 2 minute drill in order for the Buttkickiest of Buttkickers to kick butt. It took Smith 5 years in this system to run a successful 2-minute drill and this makes me sad.

    • PaulFromNorthMo

      35 for KH, nicknames are a little long so I’ll have trouble remembering them!! But other than that, a good start.

  • ladner morse
    • PaulFromNorthMo

      And he did it with the Denver pass rush in his face, wrapped around his waist and being chased all over the field. Three things AS can’t do.

  • ladner morse
    • PaulFromNorthMo

      OK, I’m behind here. Had surgery for what?

      • Chiefly Bacon

        Broken leg I think.

        • PaulFromNorthMo

          Oh wow, I saw him get hurt, but never heard a result. Thanks

  • ladner morse
  • Derek

    Alright let’s get this out of the way, they DID exactly what it means to be thrown to the wolves. On the road, harsh, cold, hostile conditions. Against a good d playing for pride against a hated division rival. With all backup plans. Expected him to run the offense show control and confidence out there and the coaches to just let him sling it! Talk about a rough final exam but you have to say alright he passed I think. Pull him out and have the game slip away. Then toss him back in with the game on the line in the 2 minutes he goes 54 yards in 4 plays gets then into range and they won the game. He makes the defense jump offsides, converts 3rd downs no Matterrors the difference. Made Wilson look like a number 1 receiver who btw finished as the number 1 in the nfl for this week. Don’t be too surprised if he got an award for that. At the press conference says all the right things not too mention lives up to the brett farve and at times Rodgers comparison. Hats off and yes I think you saw everything you wanted. Ask yourself would Alex Smith pulled that off in the same conditions? The kid is special and we should feel comfortable with a passing of the guard and if someone offers a 2nd round pick for Alex You Jump For joy

    • Laurels and limitations

      I can disagree with absolutely not a bit of this.

      • Derek

        And there were about 7 plays that you went wow and he did all that AFTER throwing that ugly rookie pick. He bounced back. He’s everything we have wanted him to be. With how quickly this “project ” seems to be developing we could have top 5 offense and top 3 qb play in 2 years!

        • Laurels and limitations

          Mahomes is posted in a video on twitter (it’s on this site somewhere) saying that he was a little too amped up early on. 1st game of the NFL career? I can forgive him.

  • ladner morse
    • Laurels and limitations

      I like Arians, still think he was the impetus behind the Colts while he was there. Arizona is going to miss him.

    • ladner morse
      • berttheclock

        Laddie, do you still remember when Arians was Marty’s RB coach with the Chiefs from ’89 to ’92?

  • PaulFromNorthMo

    Long range forecast is sunny and mid 30’s Saturday. God, I hope so.

    • Laurels and limitations

      we’re supposed to actually get above freezing here come this next weekend. I’m already expecting a letter from the water dept. telling me that we have a leak since I’ve had the faucets cracked for a week now.

      • PaulFromNorthMo

        Yeah, no kiddin’, but a little spike in the water bill is better than the alternative.

        • Laurels and limitations

          the actual water doesn’t cost the price of salt, it’s the taxes that hurt here in our little hamlet. I filled a pool 3 times last summer in one month and I think my bill only spiked 25 bucks, lol.

  • ladner morse
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      Not sure why, but I just digs me some Wilson.

  • berttheclock

    David, you mentioned something above about the 2nd year and opposing DCs having had the opportunity to view films. Reminds me of MLB where a young pitching phenom comes along and baffles many teams, that is, until he has to face teams the 2nd time. Often things can change. Also, have noticed how opposing DCs have viewed films of some of Andy Reid’s favorite plays and adjust to them.

    • that is a good point as well. When a team faces another only once, a new QB is something of a mystery. About 1/2 or 2/3 of the way through, the nuances have a chance to be seen enough where adjustments can be made — especially by in division foes you see twice. The next season is naturally a lot tougher. Opposing DCs have indeed seen Andy and know his tendencies. Plus he never down shifted in the first half. Nagy was a lot better and mix n match and fooled a lot of set up Ds. He is just plain a lot better play caller.

  • berttheclock

    On the earlier thread, freshmeat noted how ESPN and cable has taken over showing many important college and pro football games. Just noted that for today’s lineup of great college games, ESPN has the rights to all except the Citrus Bowl which will go with ABC. I had read about problems many seniors across the land have had with so many games being taken away from network TV and awarded to cable companies. With so many seniors not having the extra money to pay for cable, this has cut them off.

    • freshmeat62

      I just sent emails to my congresswoman and senators to see if something can be done to make sure all can see these games. I think there is a law that NFL games are to be shown locally. I would hope these college playoff games would require the same consideration.

  • tm1946

    Not to bust anyone bubble or kill a vibe. Mahomes did a nice job, I see him with the future we want at QB. Alex, 17 million… is petty cash for a QB… if we go far in the playoffs.. how can you let him walk (now if Mr Dorsey has an early draft pick to give away…. well maybe). The rest can move on or play at a wage we can afford.

    Now, I see a lot of love for last draftees… Kpass played well AT Houston’s position, remember Ford did as well and stunk it up moving to Hali’s side. Eligwe was just ok, IMO. Lastly, there has to be a general change of the guard in the middle of the roster… to much money, not enough production…. only odd ball is Colquitt, if he gets reasonable for his pay check, keep him.

  • berttheclock

    I mentioned below about Bruce Arians being Marty’s RB coach with the Chiefs. He was with KC from 1989 to 1992. At the time, he used the FB position a great deal. In fact, one of his FBs went on to become a RB coach in the NFL and loves to use FBs. However, by the time Arians arrived in Arizona, seeing what Manning could do with wide outs, he decided to forego the use of FBs. So, that is why he traded Sherman to KC for a DB.

    • berttheclock

      The FB Arians used in KC was James Saxon, who is, now, the RB coach for the Steelers.

    • Chiefly Bacon

      I’m not much of a proponent of the traditional full back. I love H-backs though. Excited to see what Orson Charles can do going forward.

  • freshmeat62

    Man you covered a lot of ground there. A lot more than my puny little brain can handle at one setting. So I’ll just start w/ Mahomes/Smith, and go back and finish the rest of your column.

    I would probably trade Smith…IF, I can get decent return. And that is a pretty strong probably. I don’t know what he’s worth. We usually have a tendency of over valuing our own players. I’ve seen several saying a 1st, or maybe a 1st and another lower pick. Also seen some saying recoup the 2 2nd’s that Dorsey gave for him. I think those are a little bit of pie in the sky thinking, but I have a tendency of being too conservative, so lets say a lower third 1st rd pick. Smith will be 34 all of next season. If he has 4-5 years of good play left in him, and I think he does, that will take him to 37 or 38 years old. And he’s pretty durable in that he doesn’t get hurt easily.

    So is there a team in the lower 3rd of the draft that has a roster that is just a good QB away from being a contender? And they have to be able to afford to take on Smiths contract. Maybe they could get their original 1st rd pick back from Buffalo. I don’t think Taylor is a SB quality QB, and Buffalo does have a pretty good team. Maybe Arizona, or heaven forbid the Chargers. But Rivers is getting up there in years…but he also has 2 more years on his contract…so naaa. Jacksonville? I don’t believe Bortles is the answer. I think Smith would give them a much better chance. How about Washington? Who knows what Dan Snyder would do? New Orleans! Will Brees be back? He’s getting pretty long in the tooth, and I believe his contract is up.

    One other thing to consider is that since this draft is thought to be a relatively weak, are there players that we would want that would be available at that draft position. I’m think a top notch O-lineman to protect this valuable new arm, or a DB that can cover.

    OK, now back to our regular scheduled reading.

    • berttheclock

      Pundits can be wrong about the upcoming draft, but, several have said while pure cream is scarce, there will be 2nd and 3rd tier players who can add depth to teams.

      • Chiefly Bacon

        It’s early yet, but I see a lot of depth guys, not a ton of starters past the first round. What was initially shaping up to be a great QB class is looking a little shaky. No sure things. From a pure talent standpoint, I don’t see anybody better than Mayfield, but teams will definitely be leary of his attitude.

        • Derek

          I feel we literally say this every year about the qbs never living up to expectations leading up to draft day with wentz aside of course. I’m thinking Watson v Mahomes Will be an exciting rivalry between young gun qbs

          • Laurels and limitations

            pretty sure we DO say it every year, but some of these guys are going to go high in the draft regardless. Some might even turn out to be good.

          • freshmeat62

            Doesn’t it happen every year that at the end of the season QB’s are scattered all down thru the big boards, but as we get closer to draft day they all suddenly develop life vests and float to the top…worthy or not.

          • Laurels and limitations

            every. single. year. That’s mainly the reason I never pay much attention to the draft boards except in order to look guys up. I spend so little time watching college play that nobody should ever pay attention to any mock draft I ever make.

          • that’s a great comment… 🙂

        • freshmeat62

          The QB that impressed me the most this year was Rudolph of OK ST. 2nd was Mayfield. Of those being touted I thought Rosen looked good, Darnold didn’t impress at all, and I never saw Allen.

    • Laurels and limitations

      We also have to think of the FA market in QBs this year as well. The market was brutal last season with 2 level guys going for top-tier prices due to the QB draft market and this year looks just as messy, if not moreso than 2017. Cousins, Manning, Smith, etc. etc. will be in demand.

    • I don’t have a great problem if that is what Veach does. Smith will, after his 2017 numbers, require high value return. OTOH: He proved he can be successful out of the gate, even with no #1 WR. Give him a solid offensive line(arrived at this season–not top 5 or anything but solid). Injuries hurt things even still with the OL. Chiefs need to draft a high pick OL each season my view.

  • ladner morse
    • Laurels and limitations

      And that’s with 4-5 crappy games in the mid season. KC has been blessed with RBs for as long as I can remember ( I refuse to remember 2012, btw)

  • PaulFromNorthMo

    Along with our division opponents, in 2018 we have the Patriots, Steelers, Seahawks, Rams and Browns away and home games against the Ravens, Bengals, Jaguars, 49ers and Cardinals. Next year looks tough.

    • Laurels and limitations

      lol, Oh NO!! Not the Browns and 9ers !!

      You’re right though, tough looking schedule as it stands right now. A lot can happen in an offseason though.

      • Chiefly Bacon

        9ers are going to be a much tougher out next season. Garrapolo looks like the real deal.

        • Laurels and limitations

          you think so? they did recently beat some decent-to-good teams but I’m still in the wait-until-they-got-some-tape crowd with this one.

  • Laurels and limitations

    Man, I got to doing some research and was actually pretty amazed at what I found. Rookie QBs thrust into the action were put at a HUGE disadvantage when it came to winning/losing versus QBs that sat their respective 1 season(s).

    Rookie QB winning percentages (these were 1-2 rd pick guys, we all know the Wilson and Brady skew the charts horrifically) .

    48% in 1st season
    50% 2nd
    53% 3rd.

    Okay then, we go to look at QBs that sat a year. Again, these are winning percentages.

    51% in the 1st year
    57% the 2nd
    54% the 3rd
    56% the 4th.

    To clarify the difference here: since 1990 the annual average of games won necessary to make the playoffs has stayed quite stable at 9….or .5625 percent win average. So, resting the rookie QB points strongly to the taek of sitting them the first year. The outlier here, the little fact that is hiding in the shadows? Phillip Rivers and Aaron Rogers are the only upper echelon QBs to sit longer than 1 year and become relevant but they were also behind entrenched starters Farve and Brees. G.B. went 13-3 the year before and Brees lost a limb or something. What I’m saying is, there was no real NEED to start either guy.

    This argument could be viewed as being in favor of sitting Mahomes for one more year….but nope, not a chance and here it is:

    “With the salaries that veteran QBs are making these days, its vital to be active in the QB drafting market. The last 5 Super Bowl winning QBs have an avg salary of only $9.5 M, and an avg cap hit of only $8.8 M. That’s up from the $7.5 M avg and $6.9 M cap hit over the last 15 years.”

    So, I guess my argument is simple: Mahomes has officially sat his year and there is nothing proving that him sitting additional time would prove beneficial, quite to the contrary actually. Smith’s contract has become cumbersome to the team’s success.

    VIVA LA MAHOMES!!!!!

    • Chiefly Bacon

      Excellent post.

      • Laurels and limitations

        thank you, sir. I was trying to get it out earlier but I got wrapped up in the articles, stats, and numbers….this is an excellent topic that could be successfully argued either which way indefinitely.

  • Laurels and limitations

    Coaching staffs fired:Chicago (5-11)Detroit (9-7)Indianapolis (4-12)Oakland (6-10)New York Giants (3-13)Head Coach Retiring: Arizona (8-8)TBD:Cincinnati (7-9) Lewis likely outHouston (4-12) BoB expected to stayTennessee (9-7) Still possible firing— Confetti Wap (@NFLosophy) January 1, 2018

    • Chiefly Bacon

      Chiefs will try to convince Nagy to stick around till Reid retires, but with that many teams pining for head coaches, it might be a tough sell.

      • Laurels and limitations

        Some coaches care about staying home but Reid has always looked to me like someone who wants his guys to spread their wings. Fact is, HC money is so much more than assistant money that I really can’t see why someone WOULDN’T take a job…as long as it wasn’t in Cleveland.

      • tm1946

        Depends on “when” Reid retires/moves on… guessing no time soon.

  • freshmeat62

    Screw ESPN! Those bums hog all of the good bowl games and what do they stick on the free station, the 14th Notre dame and 17th LSU game. They finally have a chance to have some people watch their lousy ABC channel, and they blow it. I don’t think I’ve seen anything on channel 9 since they cancelled Castle.

    New Years day with no football. I thought we won the cold war. Looks like the commies won.

    • freshmeat62

      So what am I doing instead? Getting stuff together to do taxes.

      This freaking SUCKS!!!

      • tm1946

        Paid property taxes in Dec… now that sucks.

        • freshmeat62

          Yeah, right at Christmas time.

  • Laurels and limitations

    Every time I begin to think that KC should move on from Colquit he goes and has a tremendous game, just like last night. Towards the end of the game Kc truly needed the field flipped so what does Colquit do? he kicks a 77 yard punt. 5 punts last night 51.2 yd/avg. The dude is still amazing, and admittedly expensive.

  • tm1946

    Not sure anyone else caught it… tv announcer in S. Car. vs Mich Outback Bowl… said “just matriculate the ball down the field”. I thought of Stram and smiled.

    • freshmeat62

      Shut up! You just trying to po those of us that don’t have cable?

      • tm1946

        Come on over, steaks and shrimp are gone… still got a brew or two left… always room for one more… heck bring family… we got room and Dish tv.

        • freshmeat62

          Thanks, but the wife just took the granddaughters to KC in the car, and I’m here w/ a pickup w/ 2 bald front tires. I’d be driving on cords. I’ll just stay here and bellyache.

          • tm1946

            Will be making a new batch of “Kansas red” in Feb…. should be ready by Easter…. maybe I can hold a golf tournament for AO fans come spring? Will you have tires by then?

          • freshmeat62

            You bet! As soon as I get Christmas paid for, tires are first thing on the list.

  • tm1946

    Denver keeping HC for another year.

    • Laurels and limitations

      I liked that call, teams need coaching stability and Vance Joseph needs offensive talent.

    • freshmeat62

      Yeaaa! And w/ those QB’s, they’ll be riding in the caboose another year.

  • Heilios

    I just got my playoff tickets today! It’s going to be awesome!

    • Merlin

      Where are you sitting?

  • Laurels and limitations

    @PatrickMahomes5 #chiefs fans woke up today like: pic.twitter.com/FizvqwuzEl— Jeff Fawver (@STRONGbutChubby) January 1, 2018

  • Laurels and limitations

    The #Chiefs have NEVER lost a game Pat Mahomes started.— taco sal (@TheTacoSalazar) January 1, 2018

  • Laurels and limitations

    I WISH I would have gotten a chance to play a playoff game at Arrowhead! #ChiefsKingdom is gonna be sooo loud!— Michael DeVito (@MikeDeVito70) January 1, 2018

  • ladner morse
    • Merlin

      That is a rough, rough away schedule

      • berttheclock

        Yes, but, Talgo runs between Vancouver and Seattle with and ends the run within walking distance of Century Terrible Telecom service. You know the kind where you get your monthly bill and know you are going to have to spend at least an hour to get prices on it reversed. Lots of so-called “roaming charges”.

        • Merlin

          bert:

          How do you think Mahomes is doing?

          • berttheclock

            I never questioned his abilities. What I questioned and still do is the move up to 10 from 27 and giving away the 91 and the 2018 1st. I wanted Dorsey to devote more to defensive help for the first pick and find better talent in the late rounds. For years, he was known for being able to mine gold in the lesser rounds, but, this past year, it appears he made his move, selected two excellent players in KPass and Hunt with Chesson all right and Eligwe a future star, but, then, went to sleep. As QBs in the NFL are finding that proverbial Fountain of Youth as they get older, I wanted Dorsey to keep Smith, but, build a more solid team around him.

            However, that is really in the pass. Mahomes II will do well. I just hope Veach will be able to surround him with enough solid talent to make it a true 53 man team and not just have to depend on his arm to win games.

          • oh ya! the d problems in 2016 and those we feared came to pass in 2017 and we coulda shoulda woulda done a lot more to solve all those exposures, still taken Hunt, and still had the power to trade up to prevent salary cap issues. Oh well. I like PM but this is what I thought Dorse would do. Btw: Ramik Wilson really showed up. I see our ILBs as being pretty solid: Ragland, Eligwe, Wilson, KP-L and one more. I did think Smith would move forward in 2017 but he was injured. At this juncture? I think it is time to move DJ to coaching… sorry to say that cuz I love this player some.

    • berttheclock

      The Browns???????????? Oh noooooooooooo.

      • ladner morse

        hehehehahaha

    • Calchiefsfan

      So I get two tailgate games here in Socal next season!

  • berttheclock

    Both Laddie and David wrote about possible head coaching moves. Elway is going to keep Joseph as his HC. However, Arizona has requested interviews with two assistants. Can’t recall one of the them, but, John DeFilippo of the Eagles is, possibly, the best Special Teams coach in the NFL. Yes, Toub is great, but, DeFilippo is really great.

    • berttheclock

      However, as DeFilippo being a ST coach is being highly considered, look for Toub to be asked to interview, also, with other teams. Remember, Harbaugh was a ST coach for Reid before taking over Baltimore.

  • freshmeat62

    At ILB, I think it will be KP-L and Eligwe battling for DJ’s old spot. I’m pretty sure that DJ will be gone, saving the Chiefs about $8 mil. A couple years ago I was hoping that Wilson would take over that position but to me he doesn’t seem to have improved a lot. KInd of plateaued.

    Logan to me is a question mark. According to stats I’ve seen he was in on more tackles than I realized. I think it depends on how much money he wants.

    I would sign Colquitt for another 3 years, if he’d go for that. I think his leg will last that long. When all is said and done w/ the cuts I’d make, the Chiefs should be able to afford him.

    I think they have to keep Albert Wilson. Don’t know what kind of money he’s going to want, but don’t think it will be outlandish. I’ve always kind of liked him, and after yesterdays game, he showed his worth.

    DJ, Hali, Ford, DAT, Bray all gone, and by my calculations cutting about $25mil from the cap. Yes there is some dead money there, but I think it’s necessary.

    I believe Revis has another year on his contract, so I’d keep him for that year. He may not be the Revis w/ the quickness and speed of years past, but he’s still pretty good because of his experience. I think he’s worth keeping.

    And then there is the trading of Smith which by OTC will save about $17mil against the cap. I think it is a waste keeping him when there are other needs…o-line, DB’s especially safeties, and in todays pass happy game you can’t have too many good cover guys. I think Mahomes can do a better job than Smith right now. The only reason I start Smith this Saturday is out of respect for him, and I don’t think the Chiefs are good enough to get past both New England and Pittsburgh this year so let Smith finish out the year.

    I would then try to sign another older QB that dosen’t mind finishing his career as a backup. And then continue doing that for the foreseeable future as long as Mahomes does his thing as a starter. Some I targeted the other day were McCown, Fitzpatrick, Daniel, and Gabbert.

    2 more that I would probably let go are Conley, and West. That would save about another $2.5mil to the cap. I imagine Ware will be back, and between him and West, I’d probably keep Ware. And Conley just isn’t developing. Maybe w/ Mahomes throwing the ball now he’d do better, but I’d rather take my chances w/ Robinson, and I want to see what Chesson can do. I like Chesson’s quickness and speed on ST, so I think he might be a pretty decent athlete.

    Others that I want to sign are Fulton, and RNR at DT. I would flip flop Fulton and Morse at center and LG. I think Fulton is becoming a good center, and Morse is probably better than Fulton at LG.

    • Laurels and limitations

      Tyler Bray is a UFA in 2018 but his last contract with KC was 1.925 for 2 years- which is a steal by all accounts. I bet Veach tries to bring him back if the monies can remain around the same but who knows? some QB hungry team might spend some extra on him and talk him into leaving.

      I ‘d like to see him stay IF KC gets rid of Smith. If Bray leaves that would mean KC has 1 QB on roster that knows the scheme. So, Mahomes, Bray, and some unidentified Veteran presence is my wish.

      • freshmeat62

        1.925 might be a steal if he could play the game, but I remember even in preseason that I thought he had regressed, and he wasn’t sharp at all. Just wonder if drafting Mahomes affected him more than anyone else, as he then saw the end of his career in sight.

        • Laurels and limitations

          possibly…I don’t think Bray will ever be a starter by team choice, but I like him better than some nondescript QB from What’s-it-State? that doesn’t understand the system even one iota.

      • Chiefs-Kings-A’s

        I hear there are a few teams in need of a new towel boy.

        • Laurels and limitations

          he’d botch the hand-off, I’m sure.

          • Chiefs-Kings-A’s

            Lol

      • Why? I would find a better QB to sit behind PMM if that’s the way it goes. Bray can’t cut it and shows it(Pre and in the Game Sunday).

    • berttheclock

      Great rundown, but, as for wide outs, I truly wish Andy Reid would dump the present wide out coach. I really don’t believe he has the abilities to make wide outs better with his type of coaching.

    • I think you are forgetting Ragland here. Don”t agree with the item about Conley either. Don’t mind keeping Revis. Al Smith 2018 cap: $20.6m. Outright release bef june 1? $3.6M. After? 17.6. I suggest you do a 2 year deal, renog. and keep him. Otherwise, outright trade for picks is how it will be handled.

  • freshmeat62

    Hoorey for Central Florida, and Notre Dame. Now if only Oklahoma and Clemson can come thru and knock off the last 2 sec teams GA, and ALA. I don’t like the sec (lower case on purpose).

    • berttheclock

      That poor Auburn QB. He was driving his team, then, for whatever reason just threw the ball up for grabs many yards past his receiver.

      • freshmeat62

        I wouldn’t know, I didn’t get to see it! Grrrrrrr!

        • berttheclock

          It looked more akin to a punt than a pass.

  • berttheclock

    After watching the end of both the ND-LSU game and the UCF-Auburn game, it looks as though Nebraska pulled off a coup by talking Scott Frost, the coach of UCF to head to Lincoln. Plus, if anyone of you did not see the end of the ND game, look for the replay of the TE catching a pass and slipping between two defenders to race to the end zone. It was one of those “Touchdown Jesus” moments for the Golden Domers.

    • freshmeat62

      Didn’t Scott Frost QB at NEB?

      • berttheclock

        Two years at Stanford, then, transferred for two years with Nebraska.

        • berttheclock

          But, just think about UCF. Two years ago, they were 0-12 and this year, they won them all.

          • berttheclock

            Perhaps, if I live long enough, I may see the same for KU.

          • freshmeat62

            Yeah, but where is KU’s Scott Frost?

          • berttheclock

            John Hadl was the closest thing to him.

          • freshmeat62

            Hadl is older than us, if he’s still kicking.

          • berttheclock

            Geez, just think, I sat on the bench watching him beat my HS team. But, he ended up being a Frat brother and, once, gave me a ride from the dorms back to Sigma Nu.

          • berttheclock

            The team Hadl played for was Lawrence. They had two players who ended up being drafted by the pros. Hadl turned down Detroit to play for SD, and their FB was drafted out of KU by the Redskins. He never made it for whatever reason, but, that shows how tough a high school program they had in those days.

          • freshmeat62

            If not Hadl is Bobby Douglas still around?

          • berttheclock

            Man, you are talking about a solid runner, but, worse arm than Hadl’s. Hadl had a type of wounded duck throw which Bambi loved to jump and catch. But, Douglas was nothing but, a solid TE trying to play QB. Kind of a run away freight train ala John Riggins.

          • freshmeat62

            There you go “The Diesel”. But on second thought maybe not, he might shoot someone.

          • berttheclock

            A couple of weeks ago at Dee’s Bar, there was fellow who knew a great deal about KU football players. He talked about Riggins. I had seen Riggins and his brother, Junior, come to the KU Relays as their high school’s two man track team and win events. The fellow said that the dad of the two brothers was a farmer and used to take them several miles from home and make them run back to the farm.

          • freshmeat62

            There was a piece on NFL net a year or so ago about Riggins. He fell on some hard times after pro ball, but he got remarried and w/ new wife seems to have turned things around as is doing better.

          • hell Bert hardly any knows about Hadl. For that matter, I wrote about ^YA Tittle… think about that one.

  • Ron Widman

    Solid article in my opinion. However, just cant imagine giving up so much in this draft to have PM sit another year, especially with the cap situation. Plus I am sure there are a few other players that need paying and the chiefs will need a NT assuming they dont sign Logan for more money. I can see trying to get smith to restructure making the cap more workable but we all know about players taking the hometown discount. Even so, still think AS will need to play lights out in the playoffs to have a chance to be a chief next year. Just watching PM yesterday was just pure fun and even I was wondering what the future has in store for the chiefs.

    • you do it if it is the right thing to do. right now? PM is a cheap #2. Plus all the other things touched on… and more that I didn’t.

  • Chiefs-Kings-A’s

    Was Alex really “off” during the losing streak, or was the coaching staff?
    Nagy takes over play calling and suddenly Alex finds his MOJO? Awful coincidental if you ask me.

    • berttheclock

      and, while, you are at it, how about the 2nd shooter?

      • Chiefs-Kings-A’s

        Haha….right?
        Seems too much to just pin on one guy.

        • berttheclock

          Did you ever see the great episode of “Seinfeld” about the 2nd spitter on the grassy knoll? They had Keith Hernandez of the Mets on the show being involved in the spitting.

          • Chiefs-Kings-A’s

            “That would make that one magic loogie”….lol
            Classic!

  • Laurels and limitations

    HAHAHA, my day just keeps getting better!!! WIIIILLLLSSSSOOOOOOOONNNNN!

    The WRs who forced the most missed tackles this season pic.twitter.com/otpkUVN4w3— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) January 1, 2018

  • Laurels and limitations
  • KCMikeG

    “Chiefs QB Alex Smith will become the first player in NFL HISTORY to have 5 straight seasons of 3,000+ yards and 10 or fewer interceptions. Has 4,042, yds, 26 TDs, 5 INTs in 2017.”

    • berttheclock

      That is exactly why he should be traded. Who really needs that type of success on your own team?

      • Chiefs-Kings-A’s

        Hahaha!
        Yep……the anti Smith crowd baffle the hell out of me.
        We have one of the smartest, talented and injury free QBs in the league…….
        5 winning seasons
        4 playoff appearances
        Pro bowl selections
        Back to back AFC West titles
        On the Cusp of a Super Bowl………
        With all that success what do they want to do???
        Trade him and hand the keys over to a 23 year old kid with a losing resumé.

        IDK man…..

        • Laurels and limitations

          undeniable tangibles. KC isn’t planning on downgrading due to replacing Smith, they are banking on upgrading for the foreseeable future in Mahomes.

          .@Chiefs @PatrickMahomes5 it’s this play action throw that had Reid, Payton, and Gruden drooling during draft season last year. It’s called TALENT. #BaldyBreakdowns pic.twitter.com/ZgfNdeUh37— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) January 2, 2018

  • ladner morse
    • berttheclock

      Ron Wolf?

      • berttheclock

        However, Laddie, did you see that GB fired Dom Capers their DC for the last 9 seasons?

        Plus, hard to imagine, but, the Bills have signed Rod Streater to a reserve/futures deal today. Lots of activity at Rotoworld today.

      • well…huh.

  • berttheclock

    Just checked the half time score of the Rose Bowl. Now, Laddie would know far more about the subject than I, but, really strange to look at any Rose Bowl score and not see teams from the Pac 12 or descending or Big Ten included. However, if you peruse the history of that Bowl, it was common place to have teams from many different areas of the country and conferences back in the twenties and thirties of the last century.

    • berttheclock

      Still waiting for Laddie to tell us more about personally seeing “Wrong Way” Roy Riggles of Cal pick up a fumbled punt and race the wrong way towards his own end zone. But, Georgia Tech held on to win the game 8-7 anyway.

    • ladner morse

      Good game. I’m hoping for Oklahoma to win.

      Oddly enough… I’ve never been to the Rose Bowl stadium… that I recall… unless it was for a high school CIF championship game… but I would have been so young I didn’t even realize where I was.

      • berttheclock

        The NFL scouts looking for RBs must be drooling over Chubb and Sony Michel. In viewing the history of the Rose Bowl, I noticed that the last time any team had come back for being buried at half time was in 1926 in an Alabama game. Georgia just tied the game.

        But, in mentioning poor seating there, unless they have reworked it, I remember very long rows and very little space between your knees and the person ahead of you and the knees of the person behind you being in your back. Plus, as to the long rows, you had to be very careful if you happened to sit in the middle and needed to get out to the rest rooms. But, viewing a game was great.

        • ladner morse

          As a kid… my mind was more fixed on a place called “Square Burger” in Pasadena. Not sure that was the name of the place but they did serve square burgers… with four extra bites.

  • berttheclock

    Jon Gruden is expected to work this week’s Chiefs’ playoff game. CBS Sports is reporting Gruden wants to bring John Morton, the OC of the Jets and Paul Guenther, DC of the Bengals along to Oakland/Vegas with him. Pete Prisco has Gruden’s less than sterling track record at Tampa Bay up. It is a losing one.

  • Chiefly Bacon

    Heck of a game (OU vs Georgia). Baker Mayfield is a little short, but smart NFL teams will overlook that. What remains to be seen is what NFL teams think of his character. Talent is undeniable.

  • Chiefly Bacon

    Oklahoma has the saddest looking RPO I’ve ver seen.

  • tm1946

    This is for freshman62…. missing nothing in the Ala/Clemson game…. four views during each play… really hard to watch…. save a ton on no cable..