We’re all wondering who the Chiefs might take with their first pick in the draft. Some say they must get a quarterback simply because it’s been 34 years since they took one in the first round. True, although that bit of information is inconsequential as far as relevance to who they may take and why. Some will say the Chiefs need a quarterback of the future — QBOTF — because Alex Smith is getting old and/or his contract is running out in a couple of years. True, but the Chiefs have survived on other team’s second-hand QBs for decades and there’s no reason to believe they’ll stop now. Right?
So, why would the Chiefs take a QB early in this draft? Well, it comes down to one thing, and one thing only… mostly. To explain that “one thing”… look at this checklist and it’ll become obvious.
- How many Chiefs on Special teams are coming back in 2017? 100%? Check. Besides, the Chiefs aren’t going to draft a special teams player in the first anyway. So, check.
- How many Chiefs on first team Defense are coming back in 2017? 100%? Yes, they replaced their nose tackle and Bennie Logan for Dontari Poe may be an upgrade. So… check.
- How many Chiefs on first team Offense are coming back in 2017? 100%? Check.
Now…
- How many Chiefs on second team Defense are coming back in 2017? 100%? Check.
- How many Chiefs on the second team Offense are coming back in 2017?
91%
That hits me as truly significant. I’ve written about the Chiefs “continuity” in their roster and how that’s brought them a comfort level and loyalty not normally seen on a team. But add the offense, defense, and special teams together and when you do the math… it’s above a 95% roster retention rate. That’s beyond notable… it’s astounding. The reality is they also lost Knile Davis who returned kickoffs at times but replacing him with rook sensation Tyreek Hill will not be a downgrade in anyone’s book. Plus, we also know C.J. Spiller can bring some heat there too.
So, the only position player of any consequence who is not returning in 2017 is… their backup QB: Nick Foles. Foles left by free agency and it’s a good thing because his contract was not only untenable, but he was likely to never serve as the Chiefs quarterback… even if he was willing to wait it out one or two more years. He certainly didn’t show anyone in K.C. that he was a dynamo-in-waiting last season.
The point is… the Chiefs have waited until the draft to address the QB position.
Now, John Dorsey has drafted quarterbacks twice since his arrival in Kansas City in 2013. Both times he drafted 5th round quarterback. Not what you want to write home about… much less write about in your blog. Besides, if the Chiefs do take a QB in the draft, you have to question what they will be drafting that QB to do? Are they drafting this young buck to sit behind 5th-year-senior Tyler Bray who is now ready to spring into action if Alex Smith goes down? Or, would they be drafting a rookie QB with the idea that they’ll be the first choice as backup… which also translates to a quarterback of the future. One with the real ability to take over like Dak Prescott did last year in Dallas.
Bringing Foles in last year was not only a good idea but it was also a revealing move. It told us what the brass thought about Tyler Bray and all the other QBs in their corral at the time. With Aaron Murray a faint memory and Kevin Hogan residing north and east of here, a new question arises about Tyler Bray. Was he just the survivor of the QB arms race last summer… or do the Chiefs actually have firm plans for him?
If Bray was going to “be the man” behind center in the future then the Chiefs would have made sure that he got reps at some point in the past four years. Yes, Tyler Bray has been standing on the sidelines for four seasons now and his non-activity behind center should leave enough clues to tell anyone how he is thought of in the depth chart planning room. In other words, it looks like the Chiefs don’t have any plans for Tyler Bray.
That’s also why this draft will be revealing about the QB position and the Chiefs future. Another reason why this could actually be the year is… Alex Smith’s cap relief in a year. If the Chiefs trade back one year — because they do have a boatload of draft picks this year — to possibly get one of the many quality QBs who are reported to be coming out in the 2018 draft… they’d have to commit to the idea of starting that QB immediately or face paying Alex Smith for another year of just above average performance while shelling out some big money. Here’s Alex Smith’s dead money and cap relief for the next two years as shown at overthecap.com,
$16.9M this year is one thing, but $20.6M in 2018 is another. If his play declines at all this year then they’ll have good reason to move on from him even if they decide they want to go ahead and pay him. That’s a scenario that John Dorsey likes to stay one year ahead of so taking a top rated QB in this year’s draft — if one if available — sounds like a reasonable, even predictable, outcome for this year’s number one pick for the Kansas City Chiefs.
My opinion is that there are not any quarterbacks worthy of being named the number one overall pick in the draft. A few are deserving of being first round picks. Patrick Mahomes is one I like. I also like Davis Webb. Deshaun Watson reminds me a bit of Donovan McNabb who was drafted second overall — and more important the first pick by Andy Reid as a head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles — in the 1999 draft, 18 years ago. History has a way of repeating itself and this could be one of those years.
The main reason I think the probabilities are high that this could be the year is… they have a whole smack dab in the middle of their roster… and it’s the one and only hole… and… JARD have made no move in the offseason to fill that hole. So far. Two weeks and two days from now… we’ll find out.