Usually I would write about what Kansas City Chiefs need to do to win the game but, when you’re facing the New England Patriots in Foxborough, things are a little different. Tom Brady, the best QB in the NFL, is even better at home than he is on the road. In his career, Brady is 88 and 40 on the road, but posts an insane home record of 120 wins to only 21 losses. As much as I would love for the Chiefs to go into the season 1-0, I just don’t see any way that it happens. That said, the Chiefs performance in the game is still very important. K.C. is trying to prove they are a team that belongs with the big boys of the NFL. Every NFL fan is going to be watching the first game of the season and the casual fan’s opinion, of the Chiefs, will likely be formed by this game for a while. Just as many fans don’t realize how good Alex Smith is, many fans will base their idea of the Chiefs on one game in a tough place. With that in mind, K.C. should have two goals: don’t get blown out, and don’t get hurt.
Don’t Get Blown Out: Defense
For coaches, trying to hold down the score, the obvious course of action would be to protect against the deep ball, but Sutton’s smarter than that. The Patriots‘ greatest strength is the short game: quick hitters and pick plays make up a huge percentage of their arsenal. The deep ball is mostly something they use to keep teams honest. The Chiefs should focus on stopping the short/mid game, and if they allow a few deep passes because of it, so be it. Brady has aged more gracefully than most QBs, but I’d still like to see how he fares if he has to throw deep a lot and then sit on the bench for a while. Will some stiffness and fatigue set in? Maybe not, but it could be the Chiefs best chance for success.
Don’t Get Blown Out: Offense
Patriots have a great defense, and Belichick is a genius, but there are a few places Chiefs might be able to gain an advantage. New England is known to prefer using their 2nd CB and a Safety to cover the #1 WR, while using their best CB to take away the #2. K.C. can exploit this by running their offense out of 3TE sets with Kelce split out as a WR and Hill on the other side. If the Pats dedicate two players to Hill, and two to Kelce, the Chiefs can run the ball with a numbers advantage. If they single cover either, it’s going to be a mismatch.
Another way Chief can take advantage of that tendency is by using Hill as a RB and playing Robinson or DAT at WR. If Patriots bring the safety down in the box, then the Chiefs can throw deep to the WR. If they leave their Safety back, Hill can run a route in the flat or, if the OL is blocking well, just run the ball.
Don’t Get Blown Out: Special Teams
The Chiefs are going to need all three phases just to keep things close. DAT needs to be aggressive on KR and Hill needs to make the most of any punts that come his way. Blocking units need to get it together and avoid penalties. Chiefs will never have an easier time moving the ball than they do on STs. If they can get some returns for TDs, or at least into field goal territory, it could take the sting out of a mostly mediocre offense.
Simply… Don’t Get Hurt
New England tends to go for a certain type of player. Players who love football and are hyper competitive. The kind of guys you have to watch out for, because they will play to the whistle and past it. K.C. should keep a special eye on RB Danny Amendola who delivered a viscous, dirty hit to Jamell Flemming a couple seasons ago. If the season goes the way it should, the Chiefs could have another shot at the Patriots in the playoffs. If that happens, K.C. will need to be fully healthy to have a good shot. If they can lay a few licks on Brady (so long as they’re clean), that he’s still feeling in January, so much the better.
I‘m generally known to be optimistic, but I have to be a realist at times. The Chiefs can come away from the season opener with some positive things, but I can’t, in good conscience, predict that a win is one of them. If, however, K.C. can stay healthy and keep the loss down to a 10 point spread, or less, I’ll start to feel pretty good about their match-ups for the rest of the season. I hope they prove me wrong and win the whole dang thing. Go Chiefs.
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