Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

2017 Chiefs: The Year of Tyreek Hill

LadnerMorse August 9, 2017 No Comments

 

I can hear what fans all across the NFL will be saying now that this is the year of Tyreek Hill. When the Chiefs offseason began, head coach Andy Reid stated he was going to get Tyreek Hill more touches. Now that we are eleven days into training camp, it’s not only evident that Hill will touch the ball more, but that he’ll become a feature piece of the Kansas City Chiefs 2017 offense.

 

Andy Reid and Wide Receivers

Andy Reid has had some experience with “featuring wide receivers” in his offenses. In the 2004 season, while with the Philadelphia Eagles, Andy Reid made his one and only appearance in the Super Bowl. He also had WR Terrell Owens that year. When Reid knows that he has a stallion in the stable, he rides him… and he rides him hard. In that case, Owens ended the year with 1,200 receiving yards.That’s not an isolated incident either. The previous season, in 2003, he took the Eagles to the NFC Conference Championship and instead of having one outstanding WR he had 6 players with more than 300 yards receiving (and would have had seven had Chad Lewis gained 7 more yards). The year before that, in 2002, Reid took the Eagles to a Conference Championship with Todd Pinkston, James Thrash and Antonio Freeman combining for 2,033 receiving yards. Also, in his first two seasons under Reid, in 2008 and 2009, WR DeSean Jackson had 2,068 yards all by his lonesome. So, Reid knows how to tap his resources.

 

QBs & WRs: A Chicken or the Egg Theory?

In regards to Tyreek Hill, the gloves are off and Hill will take the Chiefs as far as the other teams will allow. However, before we get isolated on Tyreek Hill’s possibilities we must first consider who’s throwing him the the ball, which raises the question of the chicken or the egg and which came first: do good QB’s make WRs good or… do good WRs make QBs good? While I’m not here to solve that riddle, we do have to talk about the Chiefs current QB, Alex Smith, before we can say much about how good Tyreek Hill can become in 2017.

 

The Receiving Numbers for 2016

TE Travis Kelce led all Chiefs catchers with 1,125 yards. The top WR was Hill with 593 yards. Next in line was Jeremy Maclin with 536, then Chris Conley with 530 and RB Spencer Ware with 447 yards receiving. Add all those numbers together and it may sound like a load but, two things stick out: 1) Jeremy Maclin is now gone and there will be no chance of a bounce back season now that he’s wearing a Ravens uniform which leaves a sizable void for Tyreek Hill to fill and, 2) Alex Smith threw the most passes in a season in his career (489) but simultaneously had his lowest yards per completion rate (10.7).

 

 

 

 

Rational Expectations

We’ve had a good look at Tyreek Hill in camp and can begin to see, well enough, how the Chiefs intend to utilize him, which is all over the field including deep. Terez Paylor says of Hill in camp, “He’s getting the ball short, medium, and deep. Alex Smith is throwing it to him in a lot of situations.” He should help improve some of the numbers from last season too.

 

If Tyreek Hill can add just one 30-to-60 yard completion per game — and I like the odds of that happening — then that should increase Alex Smith’s Yards Per Completion rate from 10.7 in 2016 to 11.7 in 2017 which would equal, or better, Smith’s career best (11.6). Smith should be throwing the ball fewer times with more yards to show for it as well. Here’s what one of my favorite Chiefs analysts, Lyle Graversen, had to say about Alex Smith 2016 numbers in his piece called, “What Should We Expect From Alex Smith This Season?“

 

 

“Those numbers aren’t bad; they just aren’t that great either. The completion percentage [67.1%] is good (6th best of regular NFL starters) and having an interception total in the single digits is another huge plus as well. The problem is that Smith simply didn’t pile up many yards or touchdowns and that has been a consistent theme throughout his NFL career.”

 

So, will the increased use of Tyreek Hill improve Alex Smith’s total TD production and yards totals in 2017? With 61 total receptions (touches as a wide receiver or running back) and 6 total TDs receptions… Hill averaged one TD every 10 times he touched the ball (approximately). If Hill’s receptions (touches) goes up — conservatively speaking — to Travis Kelce’s level (85) then you should be able to count on 2 or 3 more TDs. That increase in TDs pushes Alex Smith to 20 or 21 TD’s. However, Kelce only had 4 TDs in 2016 (5 in 2015 and 5 in 2014). So, if Kelce bumps his total TD production to 6 in 2017 and Hill runs his up to 9 or 10… all reasonable numbers… then Alex Smith’s TD production climbs to the 23 to 26 plateau and that places him in the 13th to 10th ranking of all QBs in the league for TDs in a season. Good players make those around them, better… and that’s what I expect to happen this year. Here’s what Graversen said that Alex Smith could achieve in 2017:

 

“Just to put myself out there I’m going to go ahead and predict the following line for Smith this season:

  • 68% completion rate
  • 7.5 yards/completion
  • 3,600 yards
  • 24 TDs, 10 INTs

Those would all be highs for Smith since he came to Kansas City.”

 

 

While Travis Kelce had a 73% success rate when catching the ball, Tyreek Hill had a 73.5% catch rate. By making Travis Kelce, plus Tyreek Hill, the game by game focus of the passing offense in 2017, Smith’s total efficiency should go up.

 

A Diminishing Sack Rate and Tyreek Hill

Another reason for some offensive production efficiency is the sack rate of Alex Smith. In 2016 Smith was sacked 28 times which placed him at 19th worst in the league (in this case, worst is best so 19th makes him the 14th best). The year before, in 2015, only two QBs were sacked more than Smith (45): Aaron Rodgers (46) and Blake Bortles (51). So, for Smith and the OL, 2016 was one giant leap for mankind… better. With improved stability along the offensive line, it’s not unreasonable to project that it will get even better in 2017.

 

Now, what does a shrinking sack rate have to do with Tyreek Hill? Simple. If Alex Smith has more time in the pocket, he’ll have more time to hit his wide receivers going deep. Of all the WRs on the Chiefs roster with the ability to go deep, #10 is number one on my list… but more importantly, I’m positive he’s the number one deep threat on Andy Reid’s list as well.

 

Wide Receivers Who Flash in Camp

Most fans who are paying attention will tell you that every year at the Chiefs training camp you will see wide receivers going deep and once the season begins… it’s as if it never happened. I can go along with that observation about most wideouts who come along from year to year. Last year it was Rod Sreater and this year it may be Seantavius Jones. Jones is having a great camp and catching everything in sight. However, like so many other positions that appear to be loaded, the question when it comes to cut-down day is… who would you rather cut?

 

The Tyreek Hill Affect

I don’t think any of that has to do with Tyreek Hill. Last season should confirm that assumption. Hill was projected to take a larger role in the offense and that’s exactly what has happened in training camp. Execution. Follow-through. There are good reasons why the Chiefs might be placing a lot of faith in Hill in 2017 too. Just look this chart presented by B.J. Kissel in June in a piece called, “Dynamic Playmaking Mixed with Humility, Tyreek Hill Set for Follow-up Performance,”

 

 

Kissel explains,

“Here’s a look at all 13 players in the NFL who scored at least 12 touchdowns last season and what the average distance scored was on those plays: That is a quantified reason for why Hill was the NFL’s most dynamic and most exciting player last season.”

 

Tyreek Hill is outperforming all other elite players in he NFL by twice what any of them could produce? That’s astounding. That figure not only reflects well on Hill’s abilities but, will make Alex Smith’s stats look better and better the more he is targeted. In the Chiefs first Training Camp Live on Facebook, B.J. Kissel said, “He is more than just a speed player…. he’s really bought into the finer details of playing the position [wide receiver] and we see that translate out here.”  Tyreek Hill is not only using his speed to get open but his route running has improved ten-fold and he wiggles and fights to win every ball that comes his way. Below is Hill in practice on Sunday giving a little “wiggle” and winning against DB Ashton Lampkin:

 

 

 

 

Tyreek Hill provides the Chiefs offense with better efficiency. Pro Football Focus (PFF) says, “Hill accumulated 599 [593] receiving yards on the 260 routes that he ran, and his 2.3 yards per route run ranked him fifth of 96 receivers with at least 40 targets:”

 

 

 

 

Julio Jones, A.J. Green, Taylor Gabriel and T.Y. Hilton: those are some lofty playmates for a player in his first go round in the league. Tyreek Hill is also known for his yards after contact:

 

 

 

 

Here’s one of the best cornerbacks in the league, Marcus Peters, talking about Hill and calling him a “technically sound receiver.”

 

 

 

Tyreek Hill’s straight line speed is rare, but his quickness and moves allow him to get free anywhere on the field. Here, he’s matched up against Marcus Peters and has run a “down-and-out.” Yes, he made the catch.

Terez Paylor, Chiefs beat writer for the Kansas City Star, reported that on Saturday, the “Story of the Day” was the continued connection between QB Alex Smith and WR Tyreek Hill:

 

“Quarterback Alex Smith continues to show a budding chemistry with Tyreek Hill. The two connected plenty of times Saturday, both in 7-on-7 and 11-on-11. On one play, Hill beat cornerback Kenneth Acker on a go ball and tracked a throw deep down the left sideline. With Acker in pursuit, Hill sprinted away from the pack and high-stepped – Deion Sanders-style – into the end zone.”

Tyreek Hill should end up being one of the biggest stories in the NFL this year. His talent deserves that kind of attention. Why? Because in 2016, Hill had 5 or fewer touches, including receptions and rushing attempts, in half (8) of the Chiefs game in 2016. That just can’t happen in 2017. Apparently, that’s not the plan. The plan includes more Tyreek and then… more Tyreek…. and then… more of the following:

https://twitter.com/HighlightsCrazy/status/892942814702694400

“I still feel like I’m a guy trying to make the team, just like any other guy. I come out and give 100 percent every time I’m on the field. I come out and play like I’m on the edge of being cut, because you never know.” -Tyreek Hill

 

 

 

 

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