2018 Chiefs Defense: Why the Nose Tackle is (Almost) Obsolete · Paul Pulley

· Reid has also said he likes the 3-4 defense as he believes it to be more versatile.

· Veach has stated several things himself:

1) that they believe in Dee Ford, said this with conviction,

2) they are doing everything with the intent of winning a Super Bowl, not 2-3 years down the road but this year (that last part is my words),

3) he is confident the offense is going to score a lot of points this year,

4) he’s said their mindset is playing both Ragland and Hitchens in base, playing both Ragland and Hitchens in nickel, and then playing Hitchens and “interchangeable parts” in dime.

What Speculation & Assumptions Can We Make?

S&A #1– the 2018 offense will score points early and often most games and will take an early lead. Much like the Jets game last year (except in that game the defense imploded).

S&A #2– let’s assume that by the end of November or early December of 2017, the HC and GM had thoughts of moving on from Marcus Peters. Getting rid of Peters was obviously planned and thought out. Therefore, there must have been a plan for the defense moving forward without MP22. We played two games without Peters in 2017, weeks 14 and 17. Week 17 doesn’t really count since we rested everyone, so I concentrated on week 14. I am now going to assume that the benching of Peters in week 14 may have had less to do with Marcus Peters and more to do with the Chiefs trying a preview of the 2018 defense. Speculating that the week 14 game was a trial of sorts. I can’t think of a better setup for trying an altered style of defense. A mid-December game, at home, against the hated Oakland Raiders. The Raiders have one of the best offensive lines (at least the highest paid) in the league. They have a good running game, Beast Mode may have lost a step, but is still a powerful runner. They have an above average QB in Derek Carr. Their receiving corp was very good with Michael Crabtree, Amari Cooper, Seth Roberts and Johnny Holton. Plus they have a very capable TE in Jared Cook.

S&A 2 – A Science Lab Game: The Chiefs Defense Week 14

By taking and maintaining an early lead, a NFL team can make their opponent one dimensional. As the game progresses, a trailing team will most times abandon their running game and revert to using the passing game almost exclusively. Two advantages of using the passing game are being able to move the ball farther on each down and stopping the play clock by a receiver stepping out of bounds after a catch or the clock will stop after an incomplete pass. The Chiefs were able to take an early lead in this game leading 16—0 at halftime and by leading 26—0 after 3 quarters. This was with a very pedestrian day by QB Alex Smith, who went 20/34 (59%) for 268 yards with 0 TDs and 1 interception. The Chiefs should have scored more points as both Travis Kelce and Demetrius Harris dropped what would have been touchdown passes and we had one touchdown called back due to a penalty. All three of those plays resulted in the Chiefs settling for field goals. A little better play by several different players on about 5 plays would have increased our score by 12 points easily.

Taking a view of how the defense approached this game I first looked at snap counts

DSC = defensive snap counts  |   %DSC = percent of D snap counts

These stats are from footballoutsiders.com.

Note: Even though footballoutsiders.com stats indicates the Chiefs had 61 defensive snaps, the box score of the game shows the Raiders running 55 offensive plays. Without researching this, I am assuming the snap counts include non-dead ball penalties, since these plays are ran completely and would count if the penalty is declined.

Looking at these numbers, there are a few things that jump out at you right away:

• Four players for the Chiefs defense played 100% of the defensive snaps, two corners, Nelson and Mitchell, plus two safeties, Parker and Sorenson.

• Darrelle Revis played 92% of the D snaps, this tells us right off that the Chiefs were in sub-sets almost the entire game. 
• Bennie Logan, the Chiefs starting nose tackle, played only 9 snaps, a mere 15%.
• Eric Murray and Philip Gaines had 0 snaps. After double checking, Murray was out that game with a high ankle sprain.
• Putting the numbers together for the defensive linemen, it appears the Chiefs were in a base 3-4-4 D for only 5 snaps. Thinking that something must not be right, I re-watched the game.

After watching the game, I believe the Chiefs were in base D for only 3 plays the entire game. The other 2 plays with three DL on the field looked to be a 3-3-5 nickel. Without being able to see all the players on my recorded version, I gave up trying to log snaps of LBs and DBs, but putting the snap count numbers together it appears the Chiefs were in either nickel or dime defensive sets 58 of the 61 snaps, or 95% of the game, with 56 of those snaps played with only 2 defensive linemen. This, as I mentioned earlier, was against one of the best O-lines in the NFL and all 5 of the Raiders starting O-linemen played the whole game. Marshawn Lynch finished the game with only 7 rushes for 61 yards and 1 TD. He had 2 runs that combined for 49 yards and the TD, in which he ran through an attempted tackle by Parker on both carries. Raiders QB Derek Carr was visibly frustrated throughout the game (which was fun to watch). Carr finished the game 24/41 (59%) for only 211 yards, with 1 TD, 2 interceptions and was sacked 3 times.

Was this game an aberration… or… a preview of 2018?

The signing of Hitchens, an ILB that didn’t miss a single tackle last year is telling. Expected to be a three down player, he should be an upgrade over KPL and the diminished skills of DJ. The continued improvement of Ragland, coupled with Hitchens should provide a very solid interior run defense without a drop-off in coverage skills. The draft profiles of both Kendall Fuller and David Amerson list them as able and willing tacklers. This brings to light the trade of Peters and the release of Parker, DB’s whose tackling skills are suspect. 

Something to keep in mind about Amerson, his draft profile states that some teams will project him as a free safety. Week 14 vs Oakland had Nelson and Mitchell as the starting corners, Nelson is still here and that leaves Fuller to replace Mitchell, this has to be seen as an upgrade. The Raider game had Sorenson and Parker as our starting safeties. The return of Berry is no doubt an upgrade. The other safety position is still in limbo, it could be Sorenson, Murray, McQuay, Amerson or someone new. Nelson moved inside to slot in week 14 and Revis came on at outside CB in the nickel. 2018 could be a repeat with Amerson replacing Revis or it could be someone new, possibly one of the young corners we already have on the team.