2018 Chiefs: Gauging the Risks
by Laddie Morse
How risky are the individuals that make up the 2018 K.C Chiefs. It’s basically a question of risk assessment. In other words, what are the pitfalls that could negatively impact this team’s ability to be highly successful? Where’s the think ice? As an example, let’s take Tyreek Hill in 2016. That year, drafting him placed the team in danger of him repeating his previous negative behavior (choking his pregnant girlfriend) but now, after two years of good behavior on and off the field, he is a low risk individual (unless you count twerking right after catching the longest bomb of the century). So, these risks could be off-the-field issues or performance questions. Obviously, I’ll only be covering the positions where a change has taken place.
QB, Patrick Mahomes – Medium Risk
The transition to Patrick Mahomes is a medium risk because, 1) he sat for a year, and 2) if the team didn’t go to Mahomes this season they also would have been risking Alex Smith walking away in one year without any compensation. The more and more success that Mahomes has, each game, the lower and lower the risk will be for the Chiefs to have Patrick take the wheel.
Backup RB, A Williams – Low Risk
RB Charcandrick West was released this past week. This was done not only to give West a chance to catch on with another team, which he did in the Jets, but because Veach & Reid have a bevy of beauties to choose from behind Hunt and Ware: Damien Williams, Darrel Williams, and Kerwynn Williams.
LG, Cam Erving – High Risk
Cameron Erving came over in a trade with the Cleveland Browns last August 30, and after almost exactly one year, this experiment appears to have failed. Both Center Mitch Morse and Cam Erving looked like kids playing pin the tail on the donkey with a blindfold on while getting spun around and disoriented. I don’t know how much longer HC Andy Reid will give Erving a chance to prove himself, but I’ve seen enough. Reid does have other options which may be better (Andrew Wylie anyone?).
WR Sammy Watkins – Medium Risk
Sammy Watkins has been accused of under-performing. During his four-year career, he’s averaged 763 yards per season but he’s being paid like he’s a top five WR in the league. On the field, 100 (one-hundred) receivers in he NFL had more receptions that Watkins in 2017. Sammy needs to show up for the team, for his own self-pride, and for the fans. Until he does, he’s at least a medium risk.
NT, Xavier Williams/Derrick Nnadi – High Risk
Admittedly, the Chiefs 2017 NT Bennie Logan was not the best nose in the league, but he wasn’t chopped liver either. In fact, aside from Chris Jones, he was the best D-lineman the Chiefs had last year. Not re-signing him and choosing to go with two unknown quantities, is a big risk. Williams was never more than a backup in Arizona and Derrick Nnadi, was the 75th pick in this year’s draft and a smallish NT at that. Now, NT may end up being a major improvement this year, but for now, plus, based on what I’ve seen in the preseason games, it’s a high risk situation in the middle of the Chiefs front seven.
ILB Anthony Hitchens – Medium Risk
The Chief are replacing one of he best ILBs in the league (and wouldn’t it have been nice to have DJ finishing out his career in K.C.*) with a Dallas Cowboys rotational LB. Someone the Cs chose not to re-sign. Now this could end up being a steal of a deal… or not. I went back and charted the first drive of preseason game three and on the very first play I found Hitchens out of position in coverage, then he gets faked out, and finally makes the tackle but only after a first down.
Two plays later, both Hitchens and Ragland are three yards past the first-down marker trying to catch up to the Bears RB.
This is still the first drive for the Bears and QB Chase Daniel breaks out of the pocket, both Ragland and Hitchens lose containment and Daniel gets up field for about 8 or 9 yards, nearly another first down. This is the play where #34 Leon McQuay gets clocked on a crack back block.
The last play of this drive is as much Hitchens fault as anyone’s. Both he and Ragland are trapped inside the box while the Bears RB bounces it outside. Sure, you can blame this one on poor containment from the OLB but a big part of a linebackers responsibility is to sniff out plays before they develop and clearly, on the whole first drive, Hitchens is a day late and a dollar short.
There were many more examples of Anthony Hitchens out of place and/or behind the play but I’m hoping he’ll get it together when the live bullets start flying. After all, it is a new system for him.
*I recognize that Derrick Johnson was getting older and still recovering from his second Achilles surgery in 2017 but the Chiefs gave away a treasure in DJ. Someone I hope will come back and coach for the Chiefs one day. It would have been sweet to have him here the entirety of his career. Now, they must face him twice this year instead.
CB, Kendall Fuller – Low Risk
Fuller was the best addition of the offseason so far. His play in Training Camp as well as each Preseason game proves that point. He might even make the Pro Bowl this year.
CB, David Amerson – High Risk
While the addition of Kendall Fuller was the best move of the offseason, the opposite may be true of Amerson… at least so far. I had high hopes for Amerson early in Training Camp: he had an INT on each of his first two days. Since then, he’s been up and down in camp but looked out of place mostly. The ability to mirror a WR may be the most athletic of moves any football player makes. Amerson was good at it… once upon a time. If anyone can get that out of him it is Al Harris and Emmitt Thomas… but the returns haven’t been good so far.
Safety __________ _________ – High Risk
Sometimes the best move you make make is the one you don’t make. However, at other times the RISKIEST move you make is the one you don’t make… and that’s what I believe has (or hasn’t, depending on how you look at it) happened here. Armani Watts may turn out to be a great Safety but that’s going to take some time and even if he is excellent this season, that’s not enough to fill the void at Safety for he Chiefs. In the preseason game vs the Bears, at one point, I thought the Chiefs defensive backfield looked like a headless chicken yard. Everyone was running around like a chicken with their head cut off… and… Leon McQuay is one of those chickens. So was Eric Murray. It’s hard for me to foresee a time when either of them is an average Safety in the National Football League. While David Amerson is the highest risky move of this offseason… not signing an experienced veteran Safety was the highest positional risk. Hands down.
No big surprise here… you can see where the team’s greatest weakness is: in the defensive backfield. What do you think? What’s your take on the Chiefs highest risk?
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