The 2018 K.C. Chiefs: THE FIX

Ever since the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Tennessee Titans (btw, no one around here wants to, remember the Titans), fans across the globe have been speculating about what the Chiefs will do this offseason to make the team better… to heal their wounds… to fill in the gaps that will help them get over the hump when the next playoffs roll around. Yes, fans want to know what “The Fix” will entail and while we can begin to guess at some of those reparations, the reality is based more on scenarios. So, let’s dig into a few of those possible scenarios and see what we come up with.

Scenario One: Trading Alex Smith

The first scenario that most fans are counting on… which I wrote about one month ago in a piece called, “What’s the Right Time to Trade Alex Smith” should net some greatly needed draft picks which would dramatically change just how much the Chiefs are able to address their needs this offseason and through this draft. First, it must be stated that if the Chiefs wait one year to deal Alex Smith, they won’t be able to get anything for him (expect a 3rd round compensation pick in 2020) plus they’ll have to eat his high salary while their quarterback of the future sits and learns one more year. No matter how you justify Patrick Mahomes needing another year to sit and learn, it doesn’t solve the “snit-hole” country they find themselves in with the cap (that’s right… I went there).

Now, we shouldn’t assume that trading Alex Smith is the only way to solve the nightmare that Mr. Hyde… err… i mean Mr. Dorsey, has left the Chiefs in. There’s a great piece by Seth Keysor called, “The Chiefs Offseason Cuts and Trades That Can Lead to More Cap Space” and if you take the first move he suggests (trading Smith) and subtract that amount saved in cap space from all the other moves he suggests, you’d have more than $21M in extra cap space for the Chiefs to work with.

Scenario Two: Not Trading Smith

The problem with the “not trading Smith but cutting a bunch of other players to create cap space” scenario is that the Chiefs are currently still $8.3M over the cap based on next year’s Cap Limit (at OverTheCap.com) and it means having to use the remainder of their cap space to fill the new needs they just created by cutting all those other players to create more cap space.

So, trading Alex Smith not only helps dramatically with generating more cap space but will give the Chiefs more draft picks with which they can address those needs they created by cutting other players to create cap space as well. To maximize the number of draft picks the Chiefs can get in this draft — which is like a hospital “Code Blue” (meaning: someone is dying, and urgent care is needed) as far as the organization is concerned — they NEED to trade Alex while minimizing the other players they cut (keeping only the best ones of course) and using the cap space they do have to re-sign the players that must be kept.

While I am personally in the “keep Alex Smith if possible” camp, I realize that doesn’t appear to be a feasible solution at this point. I am excited to see what Patrick Mahomes can do but am a bit old school and knowing that a QB like Joe Montana, who I still believe is the GOAT (greatest of all time), only started 8 games in his first two seasons informs me that so much can be learned by holding a clip board for two years. However, it appears to be a moot point now because of the shape that Mr. Dorsey left the Chiefs in.

Scenario Three: Maximizing Your Draft’s Strengths

I’ve done enough mock drafts this month based on the Chiefs current picks (numbers: 54, 86, 118, 182 — 4 picks total… that’s it, no1st, or 5th or 7th round picks) to know that it makes upgrading and re-building (which is the key word Andy Reid has used to typify this offseason) very, very difficult. It’s hard enough to improve your team when you retain all 7 of your picks. This is one reason I have made a trade almost every time I execute a mock draft this year, because getting one extra prospect in the top 125 is helpful if not critical for the team moving forward.

Knowing, or figuring out, what the strengths of this draft are at the top of the draft may be meaningless to the Chiefs this year because K.C. doesn’t currently have a 1st round pick in this draft. The difference in Mel Kiper’s Big Board Rankings and his Mock Draft Board, show just how crazy teams are about over-valuing quarterbacks and with 6 or even more QB prospects that could go in the first round while teams like the Browns, the Broncos, the Bills, the Cards, the Jets, the Redskins, the Dolphins and even the Ravens (so I’ve heard) who might all be interested in moving up to select a QB, means there will likely be a record number of trades in the first round this year… but that will probably not affect the Chiefs in any positive way directly. On the other hand, if a trade for Alex Smith does net a first round pick, then all the trading up for QBs will mean a major amount of “bumping down” of more talented players all of which could fall into the Chiefs lap.

It’s been speculated that the Chiefs could end up with pick #34 or #35 of the Giants or the Browns and if that happens, then the over-valuing of QBs in the first round means that a lot of good players, with first round grades, will be available when the Chiefs pick.

Here I’ll assume there’ll be no trade (when in all reality there most likely will be a trade) which means the Chiefs will get to select for the first time at pick #54. So, here are the players available beginning with the 50th ranked player from DraftTek (I’m giving you the top 50 to 70 because it’s very likely all of them could be available based on lower rated players being liked, and taken, prior to that point:

Mind you, this is a pre-combine, pre-Senior Bowl, pre-East-West Game, pre-Pro Days for each college team evaluation… so we know that not only will these ranking sites change dramatically, but so will the big boards for each team once those events have transpired. However, since there is a possibility that the Chiefs will have to pick for the first time at #54, let’s see who might be the best choice at this point:

• CB Isaiah Oliver would be a good pick in my book. A great pick? No. But a good one considering that this is pick #54.
• OG Braden Smith has the size that Andy Reid likes in his OL but every time I watch tape on Smith he is unimpressive to me. Yes, the Chiefs need to upgrade their OL-interior but I don’t believe Braden Smith is the answer.
• DL Reginald McKenzie Jr. is intriguing to me but if your going to take a player off this list to come in and make an impact on the DL it would be…
• DT Vita Vea is a little monster. Well, not so little… as he stands, 6-foot-4 and weighs 332. He could serve in the Poe role and draw double teams freeing up other DL and OLBs to go one-on-one while getting pressure on the QB.
• OT Orlando Brown is an odd bird to me. He has good lateral foot speed to keep pass rushers off his QB but his straight ahead speed when pulling leaves something to be desired. I don’t know if he can move inside to OG because he’ll be asked to pull a lot in Reid’s system but the pass protection would improve with him immediately.
• TE Troy Fumagalli would be an excellent pick… if the Chiefs had a first round pick to to address other needs first. I’m in favor of seeing the Chiefs bring in another TE with talents that rival Travis Kelce’s which would flip Reid’s WCO version into hyper-drive. I’ve had enough of “developmental” (emphasis on the “mental”) TEs like Demetrius Harris.
• OLB Marcel Frazier could be an excellent pick with size that rivals Justin Houston’s. That’s an important feature of anyone the Chiefs choose to play opposite JH because like Tamba Hali, who is likely done as a Chiefs player, they need to be able to bring a bull-rush pressure that Hali could provide. Dee Ford may get one more shot but his speed rush has led to a highway to nowhere.

Without knowing more about all the prospects it difficult at this point to project based on anything else other than team need. Here’s a similar list provided by CBSSports:

• TE Dallas Goedert – if Goedert was available at pick #54 I’d have a hard time seeing the Chiefs pass him by. Like Fumagalli, Goedert has excellent hands but he’s one inch shorter and 15 pound heavier which makes him a better all round TE and since we know that Reid likes his TEs to be able to block AND catch, Goedert may just be the answer.
• Center Bradley Bozeman could be a great way to upgrade the interior of the OL. At 6-foot-5 and 314 he brings a load. I also think the Chiefs need to begin to draft winners and what better way to infuse the team with a winning attitude than to pick a National Champion like Bozeman.
• DE/OLB Duke Ejiofor has already been projected by some popular sites as being the Chiefs selection. He’d be a good value here. 

The challenge here is that the first round quality choices have thinned out considerably by the time pick #54 rolls around but they should be able to get a starter for 2018. While some are projecting Dee Ford to return, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see last year’s second round pick, Tanoh Kpassagnon, get the first crack at the OLB opposite Justin Houston. In the meantime, Brett Veach and Andy Reid have a lot of decisions to sort out.

Scenario Four: The Replacement Challenge

The decisions the Chiefs will make this offseason may well be dictated by, who they expect they can replace. As an example: if they cut ILB Derrick Johnson… do they have — or can they draft — players who can replace him? You won’t find a bigger DJ fan than me but this particular displacement trial is a winner because what was seen as a weakness one year ago, the ILB position, is now filled with young but experienced performers already on the roster making the ILB position now one of the deepest. IOW, the Chiefs will be fine if they cut DJ loose this offseason and choose to not draft or sign anyone to take his place. Here’s a breakdown of how I see the rest of the positions.

• QB- The future plan is in place.
• RB- Most are hoping Spencer Ware can make it all the way back. I have my doubts so a RB could be on the day two draft day docket.
• WR- Even if the Chiefs drafted a top ranked WR, I’m not sure how much time they’d get in year one. So, this doesn’t appear to be a high priority this offseason… especially with Chris Conley due to return.
• TE- Travis Kelce needs a “Thing Two” to his “Thing One,” someone who can step in and step up and force other teams to respect the TEs routes whenever Kelce is not available.
• OL- The interior of the Chiefs OL needs upgrading but not as much as the defense needs immediate support.
• FB- Anthony Sherman is still a viable piece of the core and I don’t expect to see him replaced because there’s also no huge cap upside to doing so.
• P- Is Dustin Colquitt done? The Chiefs could draft another punter but if they can re-sign Colquitt to a more team-friendly deal it gives them a chance to wait another year or two to replace him.
• K- The Butkicker is here to stay for the foreseeable future.
• DL- If the Chiefs cut Allen Bailey or Rakeem Nunez-Roches loose they’ll need to not only replace them but add another piece. Logan’s Run, as a replacement for Dontari Poe, should be considered a failure. I consider the DL at or near the top of the Chiefs needs list.
• CB- Another position of need includes the CB position. Could Darrelle Revis stay and offer another above average presence at the CB position opposite Marcus Peters. Revis influence would be a big positive so I’d be in favor of that but also support the Chiefs drafting another excellent CB high in the draft (although I might not typify the 54th pick as a “high” pick). However, if the Chiefs get lucky, a good CB could fall in their lap at that spot.
• OLB- Let’s be honest, even if Dee Ford comes back strong (as strong as he’s ever been) and even if Tamba Hali comes back to this year’s level of performance… the Chiefs still need a new OLB and rush linebacker. Until Kpassagnon produces, I’m not counting on him. This potentially is the biggest need for the Chiefs and I know that some will not be able to connect these dots but… the Chiefs really need to trade Alex Smith and pray some team is willing to cough up a first round pick for him. I’m not sure that Dadi Nicolas can be counted on until he shows he’s got something to contribute.
• S- The return of Eric Berry makes others around him better. Ron Parker included. However, depth is needed here. Daniel Sorensen and Eric Murray aren’t cutting it. Sorenson’s flexibility to play in the box is a positive which will likely mean he returns but his coverage skills, along with everyone else’s in the Chiefs defensive backfield, is something that must be addressed.

ESPN’s Adam Teicher is projecting that Dustin Colquitt, Derrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, and Alex Smith may all be gone this offseason. Who would you say might replace those significant Chiefs? Plus, who do you think would be “The Fix” with the 54th pick, or the 86th pick, or the 118th pick, or the 182nd pick? How would you make this team better?

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