2018 Week 3, Opening Day Chiefs Host 49ers: OPEN THREAD

2018 Week 3, Opening Day

Chiefs Host 49ers:

OPEN THREAD

by Laddie Morse

It looks like we caught a good one. Finally, the Kansas City Chiefs are coming home and playing a game in front of an Arrowhead crowd sporting a quarterback they drafted in the first round… and he’ a dandy. Before we get all carried away talking about the here and now, let’s journey back just 17 month ago when this happened:

So… here and now… Patrick Mahomes has won his first two (or three, depending how you look at it) games on the road and is looking to make it 3-0 in 2018. He has made his offensive line look much better and/or… they’ve made him look better by keeping his jersey clean. Here’s how Patrick Mahomes has done when he has a clean pocket:

It’s one thing to travel to Chargers-ville (where ever that may be) and beat the Bolts (for the 9th straight time)… but, marching boldly into Steeler township and putting 6 TDs up on them, is downright outrageous!

I love it when broadcasters get their words mixed up and NFL.com had a breakdown of this game in which James Palmer was talking about the benefits of having Alex Smith play QB for the Chiefs while Patrick Mahomes sat and learned and then he apparently takes the word “slowing” and the word “slowed” and come up with “slown”… see if you can catch it.

Not enough is being written or said about the Chiefs Special Teams in 2018. In this game vs the 49ers STs may play a tremendous role as outlined by BJ Kissel:

A key stat to this game, as it has been in games one and two so far this year, is the number of plays the Chiefs offense is able to generate “over 20 yards.” Jared Dubin of CBS Sports points out the Chiefs striking offensive success so far in 2018:

“During the first two games of the 2018 season, the Chiefs have racked up 14 plays of 20 yards or more. They’ve done so on only 109 offensive snaps, giving them a league-high big-play rate of 12.84 percent. The next-closest team is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 10.83 percent.”

The Chiefs shouldn’t go to sleep on the 49ers long play ability either as they’re ranked 10th in this category with a 7.44%.

To Zone, or Not to Zone?

We’ve seen what happens when teams attempt to play tight man coverage against the Chiefs elite receivers. So, what about the Zone defense? Against Zone coverage, Mahomes has completed 31 out of 41 passes and that has produced 279 yards and 8 TDs (stat from Sports Info Solutions).

The OL Line: Defined and Refined

As big a surprise as Patrick Mahomes success this year… so has the play of the offensive line, which has only allowed two sacks. However, the offensive linemen have there work cut out for them taking on DE DeForest Buckner who not only has perfected his swim move to get to the quarterback but he already has 3.5 sacks — in only two games — to prove it. At that rate, Buckner will end up with 28 sacks in 2018. The Chiefs OL will need to apply most of their double-team attention to DeForest.

The Chiefs Defense Must Rise

If the Chiefs defense is going to rise to the occasion — and we know that the occasion is a home opener so the odds of them rising… is on the rise — then they must generate pressure on the 49ers QB Jimmy “GQ” Garoppolo. An ear-popping and raucous Arrowhead Stadium crowd should help make it more difficult on the 9ers. Elliott Harrison of NFL.com says of this contest… “whoever generates the most pass rush in this contest will prevail.” Since K.C. is tied for second in the league in “sacks allowed” with 2… and S.F. is tied for 15th having allowed 5, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say the Chiefs will win this battle. 

SF Wideouts vs the Chiefs DBs

WR Marquise Goodwin is a game time decision but if he’s ready to go he could present as much of a problem for the Chiefs defense as Tyreek Hill poses to others. Marquise Goodwin ran a 4.25 – 40 yard dash in 2013 and had 56 receptions for 962 yards in 2017… and he and JimmyG are just now making a connection. So, don’t be surprised — should he be able to play — if you see him making a mad dash for the end zone on a Jimmy GQ special. Don’t forget that Garoppolo was supposed to be the “next big thing” before this season started and Mr. Mahomes light outshone the sun. On the other side, WR Pierre Garcon is now in his 11th year in the NFL but is still a formidable force in the passing game. He has 6 receptions for 78 yards. Up to this point, TE George Kittle is their leading receiver with 7 receptions for 112 yards.

A Two-pronged Rushing Attack

The 49ers featured both Matt Breida and Alfred Morris in the rushing game. Breida has 184 yards on 22 carries… an 8.4 YPC average which his not to be taken lightly (remember Jamaal Charles still leads all NFL RBs of all-time with a 5.49 ypc) plus they bring Alfred Morris who has 26 carries for 84 yards. If S.F. can control the game on the ground — and consequently the time clock — then they have a chance to beat K.C. in Arrowhead. If they can produce one first down after another and take the air — and noise — out of the stadium, then they have a good chance of pulling off, what would be, an upset.

Time for Predictions

First of all, I don’t see S.F. slowing down the Chiefs high flying offensive circus act. While 49ers will have some success on offense, it’s hard to see them keeping pace with Patrick Mahomes contortionist offense, which is able to bend to any shape in order to out pace an opponent. Once the Chiefs gain a lead, if the 49ers go to a strictly a passing offense, it will feed right into Sutton and Reid’s hands. Although the Chiefs don’t sport the best defensive backfield in the league… as Ransom Hawthorne has reported this week, “It’s Good Enough” and it get’s easier for them once they’re able to predict the other team will be passing all the time. Also, it’s hard to think that Jimmy G would have more success than Roethlisberger or Rivers when trying to play catch-up against these Chiefs.

My prediction: Chiefs – 38, 49ers – 20

There you have it. Let me know what your prediction is. Go Chiefs!

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