2021 Chiefs: The Inconsistent Season

I’m excited to introduce you to our newest writer, Chief Dennis. Dennis lives in the North Atlanta area, with his “wonderful” fiancé and two cats. He says he wanted a dog, but his fiancé insists they wait for that until they can get a house, which they expect to happen in the next two years, and that’s because they’re getting married in November! Dennis was born in New York to Russian parents, and learned Russian as his first language. He can still read, write, and speak Russian fluently! Dennis said, “It was tough growing up in America,” as he was mostly exposed to Russian culture at home, but says he’s getting to catch up on everything he missed out on like –> he just watched the “Wizard of Oz” for the first time last year! Dennis says he grew up with little exposure to sports, but it was mostly soccer and hockey. He said he never understood football as a kid, but quickly was thrown into that world once he entered his professional career in IT in Atlanta. Dennis decided to pick the Chiefs because his co-workers forced him into joining their fantasy football league, even though he knew zero about football at the time. On a random whim, he also decided to choose Patrick Mahomes as his QB.

Dennis said, “Mahomes was brand new to the league at that time and no one was saying a whole lot about him, and I didn’t have an NFL team to root for and I decided not to just go for the Falcons. I’m from NY, so I knew I had a lot of different options, and just wanted to spice it up for my first team. I decided to then stick with the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, as that was my first fantasy football move, and thus marked my initiation into the NFL world.” Dennis went on to say, “Little did I know that Patrick Mahomes would not only be the reason I was in the top 3 that year, but would turn into the great player that he is known as now!”

A few years later, Dennis says he’s a die-hard Chiefs fan, and no matter what, is sticking with the Chiefs for the rest of his life. What started out as his “first” team, has now turned into his “only” team and that’s not just because they’re good. Dennis says some call me a bandwagon fan, but he’s far from it. Keep in mind, he became a Chiefs fan before the Chiefs became Super Bowl contenders. Dennis said, “The community, the fans, the organization, the players, the city, all of it’s energy entranced me.” and that’s what made him fall in love with everything Kansas City and Chiefs. Lastly, Dennis says, “I’m a proud Chiefs fan, and always will be, and I’m very excited to grow close with our ArrowheadOne readers, writers, and community as a whole!“

-Laddie Morse, Editor

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2021 Chiefs: The Inconsistent Season

Chief Dennis

Let’s not kid ourselves, the Kansas City Chiefs 2021 season was by no means the easiest. Even in the 2020 season, when they went 14-and-2 record, but lost so terribly in Super Bowl LV, it felt a lot easier and smoother to ride through the football games each week.

Expectations

Though the preseason doesn’t affect the regular season, and many times includes 2nd, 3rd, or 4th string players, the 3-and-0 start gave the fans an early confidence that had already started growing even before football started up again. The thick atmosphere was because the Chiefs were supposed to be the team for yet another season, and the expected Super Bowl appearance wasn’t even a question.

Bad Start

K.C. started with a heart-wrenching 3-and-4 record. This isn’t a huge deal in the world of football, but to think that the Kansas City Chiefs were already starting the first half of the season with 4 losses s tough to handle.

Coming Off of SB LV Loss and SB LIV Win

Going into Super Bowl LV the Chiefs only had 2 losses, and Super Bowl LIV they had 4 losses, the 3-and-4 record chipped away the hope that so many fans had. How are we going to get to the Super Bowl when we’ve already lost these 4 games?!

We Shall Overcome

Thankfully, that wasn’t the end of the road, after the tough start, the Chiefs went on to win every single game during the regular season (except for against those darn Bengals), and won every post-season game (except for the tragic AFC Championship loss against those same Bengals).

Many have said we weren’t ready for a Super Bowl, with the way the second half of the Bengals’ playoff game went plus, while some may point to the early 3-and-4 start, let’s get two things clear:

1. K.C. made it to the AFC Championship game and hosted it in Arrowhead Stadium, and that’s nothing to sneeze at as we beat 11 other wonderfully talented teams, and
2. Though we started out on a rough note, our Chiefs took a deep breath, got themselves together, and went on to stomp through the rest of the competition, mostly.

Persistently Consistent?

We’ve definitely established that K.C. is super talented, but what were the main reasons behind the wildly inconsistent season compared to the previous couple of years? What actually mattered, and what were factors in the Kansas City Chiefs’ losses? Let’s take some of the more important statistics and break down their averages across each game and see what actually seemed to affect outcomes in the 2021 season.

Patrick Mahomes is usually the first to get blamed, so let’s see if that’s justified.

Completion Percentage: During the 2021 regular season, the average pass completion rate was 67.46% for wins, and 67% for losses. A minuscule difference. Clearly, pass completion isn’t as important, and doesn’t seem to be a deciding factor for either winning or losing a game.

Average Passing Yards: Whereas total average passing yardage for wins, was 284.4 yards, and for losses was 276.4 yards. Same goes for APYs. Average passing yards isn’t as important, though it doesn’t hurt to throw a little more.

Interceptions: Now here’s a big one. Do interceptions really matter all that much? Statistics say, yes they do! 4 out of 5 of the Chiefs’ losses (80%) contained interceptions thrown by Mahomes. Now here’s the kicker: 6/12 (50%) of games won contained interceptions as well. So that means, on average, losses contained 1.2 interceptions, and wins contained 0.6 interceptions. So slightly over DOUBLE the interceptions were thrown by the Chiefs during their losses. Now that’s a big one. This means that Mahomes needs to be more careful where he throws, and can’t afford mistakes. The interceptions don’t just lead to lost possessions, but lower morale and rhythm.

Getting Sacked: Speaking of mistakes, does Mahomes being sacked really affect the game? Not really! This ties into the quarterback’s ability to throw wild no-look, side arm throws, while being tackled, in mid air, that so many have seen on national television. Both wins and losses on average contained 1.6 sacks, so sacks will happen either way, and Mahomes will overcome them just the same.

The Funniest Statistic: the average QB rating for losses was 93.2, while for wins was 92.1. That means technically, games are won when Mahomes’ rating is slightly lower. I’m sure this doesn’t really play out too much in the outcome of a game, but it sure is funny to look at!

Team Rushing Yards: Finally, rushing yards don’t seem to have a huge effect either, with losses containing 120 rushing yards on average, and wins containing 112 yards.

Defensive Display

Now let’s take a look at the defense, which is so frequently debated:

Forced Fumbles: There was not a single loss in the 2021 regular season that contained a forced fumble, and on average, wins contained 1.16 forced fumbles: 10 out of 12 wins contained forced fumbles! This is huge! Forced fumbles are a surefire way to raise morale, keep the team gelling together, and win the game!

In addition, interceptions, and even successfully defended passes, really mattered too!

Passes Defensed: Losses contained 2.8 passes defended on average, while wins contained 4.6 passes defended. Almost double! The same goes for interceptions caught by the Chiefs’ defense, as on average, losses contained 0.6 interceptions caught, while wins contained 1 interception caught by the defense.

Total Tackles: Total tackles seemed not to matter too much (58 on average for losses and 59.4 on average for wins) and neither did sack yards (11 sack yards on average for losses and 12.8 for wins) though it wouldn’t hurt to do well in those categories either.

Overall, what do all these mind-numbing numbers and statistics tell us?

Summary

Keep your eyes out for big plays: if Mahomes gets intercepted, get angry… but don’t lose hope. If Mahomes gets sacked… who cares?! It’s not necessarily good to get sacked, although there have been games lost while Mahomes getting sacked 0 times.

If you see defense make a forced fumble, get really excited because it means the probability of a win skyrocketed, and making sure the opponent’s offense can’t complete their passes is great for everyone, Chiefs players and Chiefs Kingdom!

All in all, Patrick Mahomes needs to keep doing what he’s doing, and stay vigilante. Defense, step it up, get aggressive, and make those plays. The inconsistencies from the 2021 season can be fixed with a little more focus from the offense, and a lot more aggression from the defense!

Go Chiefs!

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Chief Dennis — ArrowheadOne

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You can also follow Dennis on Twitter at: @ChiefsKingdomCo

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