2023 Chiefs and the Bump Method

Laddie Morse

With the 2023 NFL Draft now a mere 51 days away from today, many in the Kingdom are projecting who the Kansas City Chiefs will be taking at pick #31. What many may not realize is, that pick could turn out to be the best prospect who is ranked somewhere between #20 and #25 overall. Why? Not because of a trade (although that could happen)… but because of the Bump Method. So, what is this Bump Method I’ve been touting for the past few years? It’s re-imagining the draft while simultaneously removing all the QBs who will be taken in round one ahead of where K.C. will be picking. The reason for negating all QB moves prior to the Chiefs selection is… Patrick Mahomes II. Since the Chiefs already have the best QB in the Biz (and maybe ever) it means they can focus on any other position they want. So let’s take a look.

The Dolphins Gift

The Miami Dolphins had to forfeit a 2023 1st-round pick, and a 2024 4th-round pick, after an NFL investigation into the team showed it had violated league policies “pertaining to the integrity of the game.” What that means for K.C. — the winner of Super Bowl LVII — is that they no longer have to pick at #32, but get to bump up to #31 and pick there this year. One down… 30 to go… hehe.

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The Quarterback Bump

Perhaps the one position that made me come up with the “Bump Method” idea most is… the QB position. ESPN NFL analyst Todd McShay has four QBs going in the top ten of this draft: Bryce Young (Alabama), C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), Will Levis (Kentucky), and Anthony Richardson (Florida). If only these four QBs are taken in roiund one of the draft — before K.C. picks — then the Chiefs will be picking out of the priority list of the 27 top prospects.

While DrafTek has those four QBs ranked in their top eleven prospects, CBS Sports has those four ranked in their top 19. I could list other ranking services but I think you get the idea. Here’s a list of the top ten teams selecting in the 2023 NFL Draft… so far:

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Of those teams who are picking in the top ten, here’s a list of those needing to draft a QB:

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I left the Seattle Seahawks on this list because, although they just signed Geno Smith to a 3-year deal, if they see the QB prospect that Pete Carroll likes best who might fall in their laps, they would certainly pull the trigger… or at least think about it. Remember, Carroll is the HC who was there when they drafted Russell Wilson, so it appears he knows something about selecting and coaching a winner. Selecting that prospect for the Seahawks would not only give Geno Smith competition (which often sharpens a players performance), but Geno becomes a bridge to the future and the drafted prospect offers them a player to sit for a year or two and learn the offense… while a veteran QB (Geno) shares and shines. What I’m saying is… five QBs are possibly drafted in the top ten of this draft. Four seems to be a lock.

The top ten is also where you find the teams who need a QB most, so that’s where I’ve made this a QB focus point. As a result, it looks like the Chiefs will technically be picking in the 27th slot, maybe the 26th, according to he Bump Method.

Trading for the #1 Pick

Trading for the #1 pick is a non-starter. Which ever team decides to trade with the Chicago Bears (who currently own the top pick in this draft) for the privilege of drafting number one overall, that will not have an effect on the Bump Method. That kind of trade will only happen if one of the five QB needy teams falls in love with a specific QB, and can’t stand the idea of not getting their man. By trading up to #1, they can secure the QB of their dreams and make sure they get their guy.

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Minus the Tight Ends

I asked David Bell in one of our recent phone conversations: “If top ranked TE Michael Mayer was there at pick #31 when it’s time for K.C. to go to the podium, would you take him over whoever else is there?” David said, absolutely not. Although I like TE Michael Mayer out of Notre Dame — perhaps more than David — I agree with him. Now, that in no way presupposes that the Chiefs will not take a TE in this draft (because it’s a deep draft for tight ends) it does give us another position to project for the Bump Method. Right now, it looks like Michael Mayer is the only TE who is ranked in the top 30. Actually, CBS Sports has Mayer as the #21 prospect overall and DrafTek has him at #20. If you follow the math with me… that means the Chiefs will be picking from the top 26 prospects in the draft (without the TEs of the QBs).

Minus: The Bottom of the Needs List

I’ve long said that if you ask any two people what they think about a subject, eventually they will disagree. That’s primarily how I feel about the Chiefs Team Needs. This year especially. Here’s what CBS Sports has to say about the Chiefs Team Needs.

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And here’s what DrafTek lists as the Chiefs Team Needs:

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Here’s what NFL.com lists as the Chiefs primary Team Needs:

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Here’s what the draftnetwork.com lists as the Chiefs Teams Needs:

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The point is, the Bump Method can help narrow down the first round positions by eliminating the players who are at the bottom of the Needs List. It looks like those needs not high on the priority list may include: QB, RB, TE, OC, LB, IOL… which is helpful when considering who might be taken. I would include a CB at this point as well. The Chiefs took a CB high in the draft last year as well as taking that position many time in the 2022 draft. So, count out the CB position in the first round.

That leaves these positions in the High Priority list of Team Needs: :OT, IDL, Edge, and WR. Likely in that order.

Top 34 From CBS Sports

Here’s a look at the top 34 from CBS Sports. The red dotted line indicates those prospects who are not team needs or high priority needs for the Chiefs. The blue dotted lines are those top ten prospects that would be rare if they fell to the Chiefs at #31. That leaves about 15 draft-able prospects according to the Bump Method. Let me know what you think.

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The Chiefs Pick

Todd McShay’s Mock Draft 2.0 has the Chiefs taking OT Jaelyn Duncan. Here’s what McShay had to say about him:

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“Yeah, Jaelyn Duncan from Maryland. We’ve really liked him from what, day one at the Senior Bowl? And to me, he plays with balance, length, [and] I think he’s going to keep getting better. And, if you’re the Chiefs, the number one goal is to protect your guy, Patrick Mahomes. I looked at other receivers and there wasn’t anyone who jumped out, and I just thought at this point, that was a really good value pick.”

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Jaelyn is an OT who stands 6-foot-6 and weighs 306 lbs. and CBS Sports ranks him at the 58th best prospect and DrafTek has him at #93. While this Mock was done in February — post Super Bowl — it doesn’t take into account the announcement earlier this week that K.C. won’t tag Orlando Brown Jr.. The Bump Method shows that Brett Veach may indeed be able to draft a top prospect with a much higher value, I can understand what Todd McShay is proposing here because it not only takes into account the Chiefs need at that position, but it shows that Duncan’s performance at the Senior Bowl has been taken in to account. Since we know of other players the Chiefs fell in love with at past Senior Bowls, it make even more sense.

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Lastly, the above Bump Method could (and probably will) change over the next 6 weeks, prior to the draft. Brett Veach would never go into the offseason not knowing what he’s going to do in Free Agency as well as the draft. Veach and Reid would also never go into a draft with any team needs… perceptually. They want to make sure other teams can’t predict and project exactly what they’ll do as far as making a selection or selections is concerned. Consequently, with OBJr. not being tagged, there has to be a plan for the LT position before they ever gather for the draft. What that plan is… is anyone’s guess, but you can be sure… there is a plan.

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Ladner Morse — ArrowheadOne

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