Laddie Morse
As far as WRs go, it’s year two without Tyreek Hill being in the house. That may be the biggest issue this year… it’s simply the second season w/o Hill. Patrick Mahomes appears to be able to make all the throws he needs to make for the Kansas City Chiefs to not only make it back to a Super Bowl, but bring the Lombardi trophy home to their showcase, and GM Brett Veach realizes he must do all he can to make PMII’s life easier. The better Mahomes feels about his WR room, the better chance the Chiefs have of winning another title. So, let’s start this conversation by taking a look at Tyreek Hill’s contract with the Miami Dolphins. Why do that? Because… that’s the amount of money the Chiefs won’t cough up to a WR… for any WR, no matter how great they are… and that includes every free agent out there, plus JuJu Smith-Schuster.
Tyreek Hill signed a deal with the Dolphins last year for 4 years and $120M, including a $25.5M signing bonus, with $72.2M guaranteed. Hill says he gave K.C. a chance to match that offer, but they declined. So, this deal appears to be the starting point… or I should say “stopping point”… for K.C. when considering a deal with any WR. The year without Hill has actually made QB Patrick Mahomes a better version of himself. In 2022, he threw for a league record 5,250 yards and had a 67.1 passing percentage.
Now, I’m sure K.C. would like to re-sign JuJu, but he’s likely going to be offered a much better deal than what the Chiefs will pay. However, JuJu is familiar with Reid’s playbook, had a solid first season in K.C. with 933 receiving yards, and he just won a ring with the Chiefs. The flip side is that he’s probably going to want a multiple year deal and K.C. likely won’t be willing to offer more than a 3-year deal with the ability to get out of that deal easily in year three.
Another reason for bringing up Tyreek Hill early on in this piece is that the NFL appears to have evolved in the way they defend against WRs. It’s not just a matter of Man-to-man or Zone coverages anymore. Just look at Steve Spagnuolo’s defenses and you’ll see that he likes to disguise, as well as change up, his coverages from play to play.
Wide Receiver Skills
A number of years ago, Edwin Weatherby wrote a piece for BleacherReport called: “Most Important Tangible Skills a WR Recruit Needs for Success” in which he lists the following skills a WR needs to be successful in the NFL. I’ve condensed his list to include:
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To that I would add, “Lateral Quickness” — think Tyreek Hill and now Kadarius Toney — as well as “Ability to Find Open Space in a Zone” — think Travis Kelce (and JuJu). While much of that is required to be a formidable wideout in the NFL, the play calling is critical as well.
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Now, let’stake a look at the WRs already listed on the Chiefs “Team” website:
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Justyn Ross – In 2018, Ross had 1,000 yards receiving for Clemson and Trevor Lawrence and had the look of a future first round pick. Ross has had a history of injury issues. He had his spine fused and later had ankle issues and the later is the reason the Chiefs placed him on the IR list in 2022. However, if he’d not been working hard this past year, he’d likely already be off the team. Ross helped Clemson win a NCAA Championship over Alabama in his freshman season. Here are some JR highlights:
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Ihmir Smith-Marsette – ISM had one catch for 15 yards in the 2022 season. He played his college ball at Iowa. He was drafted by the Vikes in 2021 in the fifth round but was waived the next year… he then signed with Chicago in Sept of 2022 but was cut the next month allowing Veach to sign him 3 days later. Veach must have seen something in him. We may never know what.
JuJu Smith-Schuster – JuJu appeared to gradually gravitate towards K.C. and it’s fans as the year went on. That, more than anything else, may decide if he returns in 2023 and beyond. Well, and the fact that this is where he’s most likely to win another SB ring. JuJu said last June: “I could see myself back here” and he was standing in Pittsburgh at the time, but unless the Steelers draft a clone of Patrick Mahomes, I doubt that happens. The biggest challenge this offseason may be finding the cap room to bring JuJu back to the team. I think he wants to be a Kansas City Chief and win multiple rings with the team. That’s what I’m banking on to make this happen.
Kadarius Toney – Toney was drafted by the NY Giants as the 20th overall pick in 2021. He didn’t do well in NY and they traded him to K.C. for a 3rd and a 6th round pick in this 2023 NFL draft coming up next month (not to worry, K.C. still has eleven (11) picks left in this draft). Toney took to Kansas City right away and appeared in 9 games recording 16 receptions for 171 receiving yards and two TDs. He also helped win the Super Bowl with the first of two Corn Dog TD receptions as well as a SB record 65 yard punt return. If he stays healthy, some are projecting him as the Chiefs #1 WR in 2023.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling – MVS started the season by dropping a number of passes thrown his way, catch-able passes. As the year progressed, he minimized the drops and he helped K.C. get to the Super Bowl. If he was cut, MVS would save K.C. $12M over the next two years of his contract but K.C. would lose $6M in Dead Cap space. I don’t see how another veteran receiver could cost less than $6M over the next two years so I’d say K.C. will keep him, especially if he’s gotten over his bad case of the dropsies. MVS appears to have some positive broken-play-chemistry with Patrick Mahomes, much as Demarcus Robinson had in 2021 and years before. Although DRob was with the Chiefs for 6 seasons, MVS had 219 more receiving yards than DRob’s best season, and MVS did it in his first season in K.C.. I hope Veach keeps MVS.
Justin Watson – Justin Watson appeared to be underused in his first season with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs offense. Was a 5th round pick by Tampa Bay in 2018 and played for them until the end of the 2021 season. Was then signed by K.C. in February of 2022.
Jerrion Ealy – is a WR/RB combo. He was suspended for 6 games for violating the league’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs in 2022. He was signed as a UDFA by K.C. in 2022.
Mecole Hardman – Hardman came to K.C. as a second round pick in the 2019 NFL Draft when K.C. was unsure about how Tyreek Hill’s legal issues would work out. Since then, Hardman has majorly under-performed. He’s averaged 588 receiving yards per season on 38 receptions per year. Yes, he’s fast with 4.33 speed but he was hurt this season and only appeared in 8 out of 17 games. I’m doubting his return.
Marcus Kemp – Kemp is now in Washington with Eric Bieniemy.
Skyy Moore – I thought Skyy Moore would be WR#1 by the end of the 2022 season. I think he has that potential, but it looks like it may take a couple more years. HC Andy Redi says he expects Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore to play bigger roles in the offense this year so, that may help his cause.
Cornell Powell – Powell was drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 NFL Draft by the Chiefs. Powell had 3 offensive snaps in 2022 along with 28 Special Teams snaps. David may expect a breakout season for him this year. I don’t see it.
John Ross III – John Ross was signed on January 9th to a futures reserve deal by the Chiefs. He is known for his 4.22 – 40 yard dash at the combine in 2017.
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He was drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals 9th overall. Ross played four seasons for the Bengals and 2019 was his best season so far with 506 yards receiving. When his rookie deal ran out with Cincinnati, he signed a $2.5M deal with the NY Giants and in 2021 he had 11 catches for 224 yards and one TD. Here’s some data from DraftSharks.com:
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The injury history has you believing it will be a miracle if he produces anything for the Chiefs. “The best ability is….”
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The Plan
When Orlando Brown Jr. was not tagged and then Frank Clark was released, there was a lot of talk about “The Plan” that could be heard amongst various web sites, including this one. The Plan refers to what Brett Veach and Andy Reid have in mind (which no one really knows, and I’m not so sure they do either) to make sure they have penultimate positions covered prior to the draft. What I want to say here is –> the plan does not include the wide receiver position, it only refers to DE and OT.
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Draft Possibilities
DrafTek has 15 wide receivers who are listed from #34, where they have Jalin Hyatt ranked, to #199, where Elijah Higgins sits, who are all 6-foot-0 tall or more. Now, I’m in no way saying all of these prospects will make excellent wideouts in the NFL, but it does indicate that for a team with excellent scouts like the Chiefs, they should be able to separate the wheat from the chaff, and take a WR in a middle round who can provide a similar kind of impact that JuJu Smith-Schuster could provide. With JuJu listed at 6-foot-1 and 215, the Chiefs could end up going the draft route to provide Patrick Mahomes with a younger and much cheaper option in 2023 and beyond. Here’s a look at Trey Palmer, a WR out of Nebraska who stands 6-foot-0, weighs 192 lbs. and run a 4.33 – 40 yard dash.
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While the Chiefs went the tall route at CB last year in the draft, I’d expect to see them add some height to the WR room, whether they re-sign JuJu or not. The tippy-top talent at WR is very thin actually. However, the depth of the WR position in this draft is deep, deep, deep. What that means for K.C. is, I’d expect to see Brett Veach select a tall WR somewhere in the middle rounds, and that player will do much more for the team than just play Special Teams, like Marcus Kemp did. Now, I don’t want anyone saying I was dogging Kemp, I’m just making the point that there are many tall and fast WRs in this draft.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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