3 Trades That Would Make
the Chiefs Better
by Laddie Morse | February 27, 2019
When you think about an NFL team making a trade, and I must admit they are tricky and rare at best, there is but one truth that holds constant for all trades: you must have something of value and worth that another team also values. Next, you must be willing to part with that valuable something, or someone.
Teams usually are willing to make these value exchanges only when realizing they have a plethora at a specific position or vast quantity of draft picks, and sometimes of money on hand as the result of having excess cap space. Three trades that would make the Chiefs better are because of such riches.
For the Kansas City Chiefs, identifying those areas of wealth makes possible trades more possible. Right now the Chiefs have the values worth trading for but first let’s take a look at their “untouchables.” The assets which the Chiefs would not be willing to part with include:
1. Patrick Mahomes first and foremost. In fact, I’d be surprised if he ever plays in another jersey the rest of his playing career.
2. Tyreek Hill comes in a second. The only time you’ll ever see him lose a race. Having the fastest player in the league develop into a talented and gifted wideout in 2018 to add to his punt return resume makes Hill a highly valued asset that Chiefs Kingdom never wants to see leave. Even after his history of domestic violence.
3. Travis Kelce remains one of the league’s best tight ends. A few more years at this rate and he should be considered for the Hall.
4. Chris Jones is a force to be reckoned with. The Chiefs will be working hard in the next year to tie Jones up to a long term deal. As much as the offense’s future plans include Patrick Mahomes, the defensie’s plans include CJ.
Beyond these players, there’s likely not a player, draft pick or cap money that the Chiefs wouldn’t part with… if the price was right. The question is… what would the Chiefs see as their list of assets to arrive at some trade possibilities. Those assets, as I see them, include:
1. 8 Picks in the Coming Draft- it’s true that the Chiefs total value for all their draft picks is not even in the top half of the league (see below), but any time you have 8 draft picks, you have room to move around the draft board and that should prove to be a plus for the Chiefs.
Distribution of the 2019 NFL Draft picks as of right now (incl. the Flacco trade although it is not official yet).
I calculated the value of all draft picks per team using the Jimmy Johnson & Chase Stuart value charts.
Sorted by the @fbgchase model 👍🏼
► https://t.co/0QtiAYXqyl pic.twitter.com/flBcE1sxDg— René Bugner (Rainbowcave) (@RNBWCV) February 25, 2019
2. Depth Along the Offensive Line- the Chiefs may not have a top ten offensive line, but this is an area where they do have depth and could come away with a trade to improve an area of weakness while allowing their OL to remain a strength in 2019.
3. Front Line Pass Rushers– believe it or not, one of the Chiefs strengths in 2018 was on the defensive side of the ball. Specifically, their three best pass rushers: Chris Jones, Dee Ford, and Justin Houston. While no one expects to see Chris Jones name mentioned in a trade scenario, the same should not be said for Dee Ford and especially for Justin Houston.
Let’s take three possible Chiefs trades into consideration, one from each of these possible areas.
Trade Scenario Number One
A Move Up, or Move Down, Trade
Seattle only has 4 draft picks. IOW, one team’s weakness can serve as the Chiefs strength and when you look over the Seahawks set of 4 meager draft picks, they appear to be a team that might be eager to move down and gain more picks. Here are Seattle’s picks:
- Round 1, 21 overall
- Round 3, 84 overall
- Round 4, 124 overall
- Round 5, 159 overall
Using the Trade Value Chart at DrafTek, the Chiefs current pick at #29 has a trade value of 640 points. The Seahawks pick at #21 has a value of 800, a difference of 160 points. However, as these things go, the team trying to move up usually has to overpay a bit to get to the spot they desire so if the Chiefs trade pick #29 (640) plus their second 2nd round pick (#63), a value of 292 points, then Seattle would need to throw in their 4th rounder, the 124th pick, which has a value of 48 points. So, Seattle ends still having a 1st round pick (#29) and gains a 2nd round pick (#63) while the Chiefs move up in the first round (#21) and gain a 4th rounder which they don’t currently have (#124). The math works out like this:
- Chiefs – 640 + 292 = 932
- Seahawks – 800 + 42 = 842
In this scenario, K.C. still has 8 picks but end up with one pick in every round plus an extra 6th rounder, a compensatory pick. Seattle moves from rounds, 1, 3, 4, & 5… to rounds 1, 2, 3, & 5.
By moving up to pick #21, the Chiefs would be given the chance to draft from a preferable list of choices. Using a compilation of DrafTek and CBS Sports, here are the players available at #21 and #29.
Here, I have gone up to pick #19 because it’s entirely possible — and resonable to project — that players like DT Christian Wilkins, CB Deandre Baker, or Edge Jachai Polite could fall down to the 21st position in the draft. While this draft is deep in DL talent, top level defensive linemen are at a premium and Wilkins would fall into that category. For the Chiefs it means drafting a plug-and-play difference maker in next to Chris Jones and changing the face of how the defense is able to resist the run and get after the QB.
Now, if GM Brett Veach is able to create a “possible” pre-trade agreement with Seattle dependent upon whether or not a player Veach has targeted falls to the 21st position, then a trade like this would be a huge benefit to the Chiefs.
Here are the players that could be found between numbers 27 and 36 (remember the combine hasn’t even really gotten going yet and the overall draft order will likely take quite a merry-go-round ride before all is said and done… last year’s OT Orlando Brown was projected to be taken in the first round before the combine but once it was over, he was selected at #83).
Aside from Nasir Adderley, who I believe is much better than his current ranking here, the players in the first set of lists above are a higher level of player than those in the second lists. Trading backwards is much easier to do, but if Veach can: 1) move up, 2) land a difference maker, and 3) maintain 8 picks, I’d be good with it.
Trade Scenario Number Two
Trading Eric Fisher for a Pick or…
If I was to ask you who the best Offensive Lineman on the Chiefs was, you’d probably say Mitchell Schwartz. It appears Schwartz is one of the very best in the league. Here’s how Pro Football Focus ranks the top Tackles in the league:
I don’t know why the Chiefs best Tackle isn’t protecting his backside (LT). You could reason that Mitchell Schwartz is too old and has played the right side for too long to be moved to the left tackle position. I say, POPPYCOCK! If you trade Fisher for a pick, move Schwartz to the left side, insert Andrew Wylie in at Right Tackle until one of new draft picks gets up to speed, the Chiefs could end up with a better OL by year’s end and be set for the future when the new pick eventually moves to the left side and takes over there.
Many fans are talking about the Cap Hit that Justin Houston has this year but Eric Fisher is 4th on the Chiefs list of money makers in 2019. Moving Fisher could not only allow the Chiefs to sign a Free Agent who could step in at Right Tackle but it would also allow the Chiefs to continue to get younger as Fisher turns 29 next year and has been just an above average performer. Not what we were hoping for from the first overall selection in 2013.
Trade Scenario Number Three
Moving on from Justin Houston
I’ve heard a number of suggestions that the Chiefs merely cut Justin Houston and go ahead and take the cap hit on the chin… afterall the Dead Cap is only $7.1M. However, there are likely a number of teams who would be willing to take Justin Houston off the Chiefs hands and at least the Chiefs would get a draft pick now for him instead of waiting a year for a compensatory pick. Also, I’d like to propose that the Chiefs offer to pay off part of his salary if a team steps forward to trade for him.
This is a strong draft in defensive players, especially defensive linemen, cornerbacks and yes, even edge rushers. Would there be someone who could step right in and provide every bit the presence and performance that Justin Houston could provide? Probably not. Now, I suggested above that the Chiefs move up to pick #21 and if for some reason they could get a Christian Wilkins in the house, I might have to back off on saying that no prospect could replace JH.
Cleveland, Indianapolis — not my first choices — both know first hand what Houston can do because of John Dorsey and Chris Ballard. Also, Matt Nagy with the Bears and Doug Pederson with the Eagles could be positive trade partners because they’re in the NFC.
I have to confess, I’m a big Justin Houston fan. I don’t really want to see him go anywhere. However, it seems clear now that he will never be the player he was in 2014 when he had 22.0 sacks in one season. The Chiefs will in all probability be moving on from Houston after this year if they don’t move him this year. So, why wait? Especially if Brett Veach can lock up a guy like Christian Wilkins… or Jachai Polite… and I’ve never seen either one of them show up ranked as low as #29 (CBS Sports has Polite at #14). Be sure and mute the sound:
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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