5 Reasons Pittsburgh Could Beat K.C.
and 5 Better Reasons the Chiefs Win
Laddie Morse
I’m sure we’ll all hear and read the myriad of reasons that the Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers this coming Sunday. However, there are also a number of ways the Steelers could beat the Chiefs… and so Chiefs fans should be aware and realistic about what could happen and what to expect when the rubber meets the road.
Here then, are the…
5 Reasons Pittsburgh Could Beat K.C.
see the “5 Better Reasons the Chiefs Win,” at the bottom
- No Turnovers
If the Chiefs don’t get turnovers against the Steelers, the Steelers, most likely, will win. The Chiefs average 2.1 takeaways per game and are the only team in the NFL to average more than 2 takeaways per game in the 2016 season.
- Bad Clock Management
If Andy Reid has another one of his age-old clock management problems… the Steelers will win. Since Matt Nagy and Brad Childress have taken over the title of co-offensive coordinators the clock management issues appear to have… timed-out.
- No JC
If RB Jamaal Charles is hurt or can’t play for some reason… the Steelers will win.
OH WAIT! Never Mind. While Spencer Ware is not Jamaal Charles, the Chiefs have done quite well while waiting for Charles to come and be in change once again (I’m pulling for you in 2017, Jamaal!).
- Underused Kelce
If TE Travis Kelce has 3 catches or less, the Chiefs will lose. Kelce had 3 catches or less in 6 games this year but in all other games he averaged 7.3 receptions. If Kelce has more than 7 catches in this game, the probability that the Chiefs will win goes up dramatically.
And here is the is the #1 reason the Pittsburgh Steelers could beat the Kansas City Chiefs
- Forgetting Hill
If Andy Reid uses speedster Tyreek Hill as much as he did in the 6 games in which he only averaged 1 reception per game… then the Steelers win. In the other ten games Hill averaged 5.5 receptions per game, with highs of 10 catches vs. Carolina and 9 in the first game against Denver. Hill needs between 5 and 10 catches for the Chiefs to win this one. In the game against the Tennessee Titans Hill had one solitary rushing attempt and that was the sum total of his touches from scrimmage… and the Chiefs lost. The same would happen here if Andy Reid forgets that Tyreek Hill is on the roster.
5 Better Reasons Why the Chiefs Win
- WR Jeremy Maclin is Reasserting his Dominance
Alex Smith and Jeremy Maclin proved they have a unique on-field connection in 2015. After some personal problems early in the year… then a groin injury… as well as the development of other players like Tyreek Hill, Jeremy Maclin has fallen down the preference list for Alex Smith to target. However, Maclin has evidently gotten past his early season challenges. In his first 9 games, his catch rate (targets to catches) was 52.5%. In his past three games, he’s back to catching the ball even better than he did the previous season with a 76.4% catch rate (Maclin caught 70.1% of the balls thrown his way in 2015). You can expect Jeremy Maclin to have a good game against the Steelers on Sunday.
- Special Teams Get Busy
There’s a lot that’s been special about the 2016 Kansas City Chiefs, not the least of which has been Dave Toub and his very special Special Teams unit. I expect the same great game they’ve given us all year.
- A Winning OLB-Tackle Matchup
The Steelers left tackle is Alejandro Villanueva who can be defeated by the Chiefs OLB threesome of Tamba Hali, Dee Ford and Justin Houston. Right-tackle Marcus Gilbert is better but can also be beat. The strength of Pittsburgh’s offensive line is their guard play. Both Ramon Foster and David DeCastro are top ten guards and while Center Maurkice Pouncey is good, he can be exploited as well. Pressure up the middle will be tougher to create even with the Chiefs Chris Jones ascending but putting pressure on their QB should be doable from the edges.
- The Chiefs are the Most Battle Tested (Strength of Schedule)
As it turns out, from all of the remaining teams left in the NFL playoffs, the Kansas City Chiefs played the hardest schedule. Period. If fans are worried because they think the Chiefs haven’t beat any tough teams this year… the opposite is true: the Chiefs have beat more tough teams than any of the other playoff teams they will now face. Here’s a graphic showing all the remaining teams left in the NFL playoffs and their respective “strength of schedules” for the year 2016. Notice who’s down there helping to bring up the rear.
- Going 6-0 in the Toughest Division in the NFL Doesn’t Get You Nothing
Don’t you just love double-negatives?! That’s right, going 6-0 in the AFC West this year does get you something as you approach the biggest game of the year, and for some Chiefs players… the biggest game of their entire careers. When you win all of your games in the toughest division you have to come away with a level of confidence — not over-confidence, because this group is too savvy and experienced to do that — that can’t simply be measured by numbers. That’s who these Chiefs are. They know they can beat you by wearing you down, they can beat you by whipping you good, they can beat you with speed, they can beat you with special teams as well as offensively or defensively and… they can beat you by playing catch-up in the last minutes of a game. The point is… they can beat the Steelers. You better believe they can!
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