The Gamble: Are Chiefs Moves Enough To Reach The Super Bowl?

The Gamble: Are Chiefs Moves Enough

To Reach The Super Bowl?

 · by Ransom Hawthorne

The Kansas City Chiefs regular season success can never be properly enjoyed, due to their post-season failures. After years of ineptitude, on that front, John Dorsey and Andy Reid gambled on young gunslinger, Patrick Mahomes, to fix that. Veach doubled down on that bet, with the addition of the supremely talented, and highly paid, Sammy Watkins. These moves seem certain to produce one of the league’s most prolific offenses, but will that be enough? Fans familiar with the cliché: “Defense wins championships” are bound to wonder. Of course, that is not the only cliché at play here, and the more important one, in this instance, is: “You can’t win if you don’t play.” Is a dynamic offense enough to get the Chiefs the chance to, at least, play in the big game? Recent NFL history sheds some light on that.

The Data: It’s usually best to gather as large a data set as possible, when looking for trends. However, the shifting rules, and enforcement thereof, make this less advisable, in the NFL. Since the last major change came after Seattles 2013 Super Bowl win (the NFL tightened up pass interference calls to benefit the offense), it’s best to use stats from 2014 on. Here’s what they look like:

What It Means: Three out of the last four years, at least one of the Super Bowl teams finished top three in offense. The last two years, in a row, both Super Bowl teams have come from this group. From that, it’s pretty safe to say that an elite offense could take the Chiefs a long way. Is Mahomes good enough to turn Chiefs loaded roster into a top three unit? It’s too soon to say, but it certainly seems possible. If trends from the previous two years hold, just accomplishing that feat would give K.C. a 66% chance of making the big dance. That’s welcome news for championship-starved fans.

Can They Win If They Get There?

Getting to the Super Bowl is nice, but fans don’t dream of getting there, they dream of winning. When it comes to winning, we return to the question of defense winning championships. The Eagles, last year, ranked 4^th in scoring D. The Pats, who won the previous year, ranked 1^st in scoring D in 2016. In 2015, the Broncos, who won that year, ranked 4^th in scoring D. In 2014, the Patriots ranked 8^th in scoring D. The most optimistic outlook on this, is that the average rank of these teams, is 5.6. Realistically, every year, but one, the winners boasted a top 4 scoring D.

Chiefs defense ranked 15^th in scoring last year. That’s not terrible, but it’s not good enough to win a championship. However, their rankings for the previous three years were 7^th, 3^rd and 2^nd. If DC Bob Sutton can orchestrate a turnaround that catapults Chiefs into the top 6, they have a good chance to win it all. If, as is more likely, the rebuild (re-tooling) doesn’t get done in one season, the Chiefs can still make themselves an attractive FA destination if they look like competitors on the cusp of winning it all.

Is it possible for Chiefs to win the Super Bowl this year? Yes. They have the talent to field a top three offense and a history of more productivity on defense. Unfortunately, as of right now, we just don’t know how good they’ll be in either phase. With so much turnover, Chiefs are still more potential winners than projected winners. Keep an eye on these stats though. If Chiefs can start strong on offense, and improve a little, each week, on defense, they‘ll have as good of a shot as any team, not coached by Bill Belichick. Go Chiefs.

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