PUNCH IT IN! A Drive Based Look
at the Chiefs Offense
by Ransom Hawthorne
A few weeks ago, I wrote about how the Kansas City Chiefs need to field a top three offense in order to make the Super Bowl. That’s all well and good, but the Chiefs fielded a pretty good offense last year, and it wasn’t enough. If Patrick Mahomes is to, better the offense, he’s going to need to improve in a few key areas, where the Chiefs struggled previously. While K.C. ranked 6th in points per drive last year, they under-performed in one key area. This shouldn’t come as any shock to fans: the Chiefs need to punch it in.
Key Stats: Points Per Drive
For comparison purposes, I looked at the top four offenses, in points per drive, and checked out how Kansas City stacked up against them. Take a look:
|
Pts/Drive |
TDs/FG |
INT/Drive |
TDs/RZ |
Pts/RZ |
|
|
NE |
2.69 (1st) |
1.30 (18) |
.048 (5) |
.609 (4) |
5.3 (3) |
|
NO |
2.44 (2nd) |
1.48 (12) |
.047 (24) |
.582(9) |
5.0 (8) |
|
LAR |
2.4 (3rd) |
1.12 (23) |
.039 (1) |
.551 (14) |
4.9 (11) |
|
PHI |
2.31(4th) |
1.66 (9) |
.049 (6) |
.667 (1) |
5.33 (2) |
|
KC |
2.26 (6th) |
.93 (28) |
.047(3) |
.420 (29) |
4.44 (26) |
The Chiefs built a solid scoring offense by, 1) not turning the ball over and, 2) making a high percentage of their field goals. Their ratio of touchdowns to field goals fell near the bottom of the league. The biggest problem, of course, is their inability to turn red zone trips into touchdowns. Last year’s Super Bowl teams ranked 1st and 4th in red zone trips, resulting in touchdowns. Chiefs? 29th. Three positions better than Denver’s horrific offense.
K.C. in 2018: Movin’ On Up
There’s so much potential for the Chiefs to improve. Kansas City had about 100 drives that made it to the Red Zone. If they were able to just bring their Red Zone success rate in line with… say… New Orleans (9th), it would result in 16 more TDs, or an extra 4-7 points per game. That can absolutely be the difference between winning and losing a game. Getting the TD over the FG is especially important in playoff games, where results are often decide by just a few points.
What Time is it in K.C.? Mahomes’ Time
Mahomes showed some promise, but the sample size is really too small to make many conclusions. If he matched his points per drive, against Denver, over the course of a season, the Chiefs offense would rank 2nd in the league, in that category. On the flip side, his INTs-per-drive would have ranked 31st, just above Cleveland, and just below Denver. It’s worth noting, however, that Mahomes threw the right kind of interception. A pick-6 can be devastating, while a failed-deep-shot pretty much amounts to a punt. While Mahomes’ INT led to a failed-drive, it also only gave Denver the ball at their own 20 yard line, and an illegal block pushed them back to the 10. Hopefully, with starters instead of backups, Mahomes can match his scoring output, and reduce the number of interceptions he throws.
Kansas City: Red Zone Productivity
From a Red Zone productivity standpoint, the Chiefs have nowhere to go but up. Growth in that area will come at the expense of the Chiefs interception percentage, but that trade-off is probably worth it. The biggest question for the offense is: can Mahomes lead the same number of drives to the Red Zone that Smith did? If he can, then the Chiefs are primed to take their place as one of the 2-3 best offenses, in the NFL.
Radioactive Bonus Thought
If Chiefs continue to rank near the bottom of the league in TDs/RZ, it’s time to look for a new coach. Reid has been cut a certain amount of slack, to this point, because of the weaknesses around him. With a loaded offense, and a hand-picked rookie gunslinger, he is out of excuses. Reid needs to produce results, in 2018, or tender his resignation. Period.
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