The Chiefs Performer Class Forecast
by David Bell
Many fans are expecting a down-side season and are trying to arrange their minds around what they believe is inevitable– a mediocre season and no playoff appearance, no shot at getting to the Super Bowl and they’ve tinged this negativity with rare moments of lucidity as well. The “Fan”atics surprise themselves at times.
I am asking you to see the wealth that exists on the roster. Approach the 2018 season with this view. Will all players ascend? Nope. But most won’t fail even if they don’t play as well as prior seasons. On the other hand, there is team toughness and camaraderie and that can carry things all the way to the end and the playoffs and a big run. What follows is my view of the Player Wealth on the roster: a Performer Class Forecast.
The Wealth, the Wealth, the Wealth
The Chiefs have 14 top performers on their roster. By this description I mean players who don’t make mistakes, who fulfill all the requirements of their position roles and who make plays. I am going to surprise you with a couple of sure bets here that you either believe in or don’t, but in my view, they will be a dependable player or better, which gives the Chiefs a solid foundation to win their division.
To win in the playoffs, most of the teams must win the division. Do you agree with this or not? Brett Veach had a bevy of talent to begin with. He weeded out some players and added to his own Puzzle Palace Kingdom at One Arrowhead Way.
Performers on Offense
Under Center – Patrick Mahomes — I am confident that the rookie will perform in his second season as well as Dak Prescott did at Dallas in his debut. PMII has it. He is testing the edges of his talent and ability against NFL players in his own camp. He is smart, he is quick, a good study and he already knows the playbook and most of the players.
It’s true, for the first time since Dorsey and Reid arrived in 2013, the Chiefs do not have a top #2 QB. On the other hand, they do have Chad Henne and he could spot in a game or two and still get wins. Mahomes has a lot of talent to move the chains which would be available to Henne as well. In a pinch, we must live with the possibility that Henne must perform should PMII go out with an injury or concussion. Here is the list of “Jacks or Better” performers on offense.
- WRs: Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins, Chris Conley (yep, he will be a solid go-to guy who can climb the ladder and make contested catches for Mahomes in 2018).
- RBs: Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware are both proven load carrying backs that can feed of each other and keep one another fresh. Both block well behind the LoS and both are very good receiving backs.
- TEs: Travis Kelce is indeed the top Tight End in the NFL.
- OL: Mitch Schwartz, LD-T and Mitch Morse provide a solid front from center to the right. Book ending Schwartz is Eric Fisher. For three consecutive seasons Fisher has not had a guard that performed at a high level to his right. I think this is going to end in 2018. See my suggestion in this regard later.
Offense Over-All? This is a very good group of players, building Cohesiveness, Continuity and Consistency(My Three C’s of the game) in Camp.
Note: If you are counting, that is 11 performers on the offensive side of the ball. They will do their job and make plays. I think we have three players who will end up in the “superstar category” and probably Four among this list. Maybe more. This is a list of Eleven Players who will do their job and make Plays, game in and game out. Their play will be characterized by the three C’s and then some. Few Teams can boast of such a list.
The Performers – Special Teams
The next category is Special Teams. These players feed both offense and defense. As a conglomerate it adds 3 more “performers” to the list of eleven players attended to for the Offensive side of the ball.
If you look at it, the weakest part is QB#2, LG and 2nd/3rd TEs. I think there is sufficient depth for WRs, OL and RB. I also think there is at least depth for Tight End. We need one guy to shine to give us a top #2 TE but the potential is there. We need Harris to flourish along with Jace Amaro. But at least there is depth. Ellis can block is another note to add.
We cannot know all the contributors on S/Ts and their import. This will arise for Dave Toub based on the 53 man roster. You can count on 2017’s Special Teams to be a good bunch. So far the Injury bug is basically absent(Ladner? Knock on Wood). Toub will have a good number of players to man up the roles needed and the young guys appear to be young and tough plus speedy.
The Performers (our 3 basic men were tops or close to it in 2017. No reason to expect different in 2018). These guys make plays when called upon, no question about it.
- Punter: Dustin Colquit
- PK: Harrison Butker
- LS: James Winchester
The Performers on Defense: The Front Seven
Yes it’s true, Tamba Hali is departed. He was a tough customer opposite Justin Houston but offered the team little in terms of output in 2016 and 2017. Houston has not been himself either. It’s also true that departed are DJ, my favorite player on the Chiefs roster for several years and also Ron Parker along with trouble-making corner, Marcus Peters. That’s a lot to lose but the Chiefs also gain in the departures as well. Peters was a hot-head and caused turmoil inside and out of the locker room. He performed well intercepting the ball but was at times, totally awful at the rest of the game. DJ just could not make cuts off his recovered foot. Hali was a non-factor and Parker just did not live up to what he should have done.
The 2016 season saw Dee Ford have a break-through with 10.5 sacks and most of that occurring over the second half of the season, especially the last 7 games. yeah, I know, Ford is everybody’s #2 or #3 Whipping Boy (AS/11, Ford and Harris). Moreover, he had a game saving pass defense in the game finale and next to last play of the game in 2016. In 2017 Ford was hurt a good part of the season and ended quite early on the DL. Berry missed the whole deal, etc. Ford’s recovery and rehab appears to be ending. Houston himself says he has two legs ready to go and stated that he didn’t feel that he had a strong base due to injury of one leg or the other in the past 2 seasons.
The Performers of the Front Seven
- OLB – Justin Houston, Dee Ford
- ILB Reggie Ragland, Anthony Hitchens
- 34-DE’s Chris Jones and yes, Allen Bailey.
The Performers of the Secondary
It’s true, this is the weakest point. It’s true that 5 CBs and one Safety have departed. It’s also true that team leader, cheerleader and on-the-field educator and guide is back: Eric Berry.
- Safety – Eric Berry
- Corners: Kendall Fuller, Steven Nelson and David Amerson.
The Defense Overall
All of these players have done their job at a basic level in their career and beyond that made plays. The may still have things to prove but we are seeing them prove it in camp as we sit and ponder what the Chiefs really have for the secondary. It may not be deep — yet. I think it will be but it needs to flesh out, get up to NFL Game Speed, and get beyond injuries that have occurred. Thus far, no serious injury has occurred in camp, knocking a player out for the season. Keep this in mind as we proceed down the process and into pre-season now just 8 days away. I have listed players who have contributed at the three C level in past seasons. They may have had set back, such as injury, changes in how they fit their former team, or had run into disfavor with the previous club and they are starting anew.
There are Ten Players on the Defensive Side of the ball who are “performers” added to Eleven on Offense and Three on Special Teams. This is a solid base of players for a roster that can and will compete, week in, week out.
The Chiefs are in favorable position for the rookies, UDFAs and Free Agents to break through, which is the topic that is coming up: The Signee’s, Discount Specials and Rookies Contributors or Performers for 2018.
David Bell – ArrowheadOne