There Is No Bengal Lair
in the Chiefs Kingdom
by David Bell
Don’t get me wrong, this will be no cake walk
The Bengals are 4-2 and easily the best football squad in the AFC North, or second best if you view it from the Ravens framework (ah, it’s only a tie breaker). What points to their potential is that they won two in a row and then lost by a TD to the Steelers at home. That had to hurt. In that game the momentum lay with the Steelers, then Cincinnati took a turn at the lead in the 4th quarter. This was where HC Mike Tomlin’s Steelers took control but, to win it from a 20-21 score, it took QB Ben Roethlisberger, on a pass up the seam to Antonio Brown, to secure the win with only a few ticks left on the clock.
No matter how you look at it, the Bengals played 3 good games in a row. I expect a tussle from them this week as well. If you take a look at the Bengals, they came from behind in the preceding pair of victories against Miami after trailing 0-17 and again the next week trailing 36-29 to win with only a few seconds left.
They are a good team, with a good quarterback. They can win on the road. They will not give up.
Advantage: Cincinnati Bengals
1. Andy Dalton is an experienced top 10 or 12 ranked QB in the NFL. He has tools to use and will do so.
2. Their squads are more evenly balanced in effectiveness, something the Chiefs lack due to a poorly performing defense.
3. The offense has a TE, receivers and RBs who are a threat for them in any game. Last week RB Joe Mixon returned after being out for two games with an injury. His run threat will be something that the Chiefs defense must counter — and hasn’t done so against most all of their opponents thus far.
4. The Bengals Defense is good — not great — but good.
5. A RB 1-2 punch design — but it’s missing half. Mixon returned but Giovani Bernard went out this past week. Mixon was out the two prior weeks. They are lacking a threat to help out with the run game. Still, Mixon is a handful on his own.
6. Andy Dalton’s targets: the Bengals do not have a great WR set of tools. AJ Green is the biggest threat. Tyler Boyd has moved up. He had done well in his rookie year but fell off for 2017. The rest are #3 or worse in the rating category until someone steps up to week in and week out. Tyler Eifert is a very decent TE and they have a #2 TE in Tyler Kroft.
Chiefs/Bengals: the Matchups
The Bengals do have a 2nd threat in the running game, Giovanni Bernard. Unfortunately for them, Bernard has been ruled “out” for playing in Sunday’s game due to a sprained MCL.
The Bengal defensive front side did not do well in getting to Ben Roethlisberger. They will not get to a far more elusive Patrick Mahomes (PMII) and Mahomes will pick them apart… roll to safety area and make a TD throw… or sit in the pocket and go deep to any one of 4 logical receiving choices… or…
Andy Reid will mix and match to a running attack and let the Chiefs punish the defense with Hunt, Williams and Williams with a bit of Sherman thrown in.
PFF also showed that the Bengals took a bit of a dive overall as a team in their rankings.
The Bengals offensive line is near the very bottom of the PFF ratings as a unit. They also have lost one player to this weeks game in their backup scheme. This is an offensive line that the Chiefs defense, even without Justin Houston, should be able to handle and get pressure on Andy Dalton.
Last? Andy Dalton has not faired well in prime time games under the lights.
Advantage: K.C. Chiefs
Like many teams in the NFL today, the Chiefs suffer on defense and it appears there will be no miracle trade to save the day. It also appears that the Chiefs will again be without the services of Eric Berry (unavailable since the first week in August) and Justin Houston, who left the game versus the Patriots in the first quarter due to a hamstring injury — neither practiced Thursday and that means they are very likely out of the game Sunday night under the lights. Despite the above: the Chiefs have advantages:
1. The Chiefs are playing at home — Fan Noise will be a factor.
2. Their offense went toe-to-toe with the Patriots best and scored 40 points. There were flukes and jukes and jives in that game but it certainly cemented the contention that they are a legitimate post season threat for the 2018 season. Their low point total was versus the Broncos: 28 points.
3. The Patrick Mahomes factor — Mahomes has now faced 4 top 10 level defenses(Chargers, 49ers, Patriots, Jaguars) and they came away with wins in 3 of 4 of those contests. He faced the Broncos who perhaps played the best game of their season and the Mahomes led Chiefs came out on top. The Chiefs faced down the Steelers as well and they are a top 20 defense.
The Bengals rank right up in that top 10 and that is what the Chiefs offense faces Sunday Night.
An aside: the secondary is not the reason they are in the top 10 and the pass rush couldn’t get to Big Ben at all so the Chiefs front 5 should fare well against the Bengal rush.
4. The Chiefs faced adversity in all contests and staved off enough of the opposing offense to get the W.
5. The Andy Reid Factor: Reid has a magic that appears to work with this offense and Mahomes. I don’t see them faltering any time soon.
6. The Chiefs, like the Bengals will be coming off a loss. Both with something to prove. I still believe this is, advantage Chiefs: Mahomes can score so many ways that it outperforms almost any other roster — and that won’t change. The mindset of the Chiefs came away with positives in a game where Tom Brady was to have taught PMII a lesson. It didn’t come off that way. PMII had 2 Int’s and you could say that this cost the Chiefs a likely TD and certainly a pair of field goals. I don’t see the Bengals getting that type of “present” from Patrick Mahomes.
7. The Chiefs will likely match or exceed the Bengals in offensive stats. However, even if they don’t, the offense has shown that it can be outperformed and still score points.
8. As noted above: the Chiefs have the talent to run the ball at the opponent and utilize those backs out of the backfield as aerial targets.
9. The Chiefs have two top WR talents and Travis Kelce to add to the woes for their pass coverage defense. I do think TE Demetrius Harris will be a factor here as well.
Could There Be a Lair in Friendly Confines?
Surely in the NFL, on any given Sunday, any team can win and play well enough to rack up a win. Is there a hesitation? Oh yeah, the odds-makers, pundits and columnists are giving the game to the Chiefs -6 or 6.5 as it may be. The O/U is 58. Tell you anything? I am not “spooked.”
Here is what I see coming: the Bengals have a banged up secondary and their pass rush, vaunted, could not stop Roethlisberger. PMII is strong and will handle the pressure. The Bengals will try to contain him to the pocket but PMII can stand in strong and step up or still evade containment. He will move the chains four ways from Sunday.
Final determination: no Bengal Lair in some out of the way corner of the Chiefs Kingdom.
Final Prediction: Chief 42, Bengals 26.
David Bell – ArrowheadOne