An Early Look at the NFC Playoff Landscape
by Paul Pulley | November 15, 2018
Following week 10 of the 2018 season, things are starting to take shape as to who will be playing in January and who will be resting and watching. As we all know, the surest way into the post-season is to win your division. Although there is a lot of football left to be played and the playoff positioning is apt to change as well, I thought to take an early look at how things are shaping up in mid November in the NFC.
Starting with the NFC East
The Washington Redskins currently hold a two game lead in the division. In the final seven games, the Redskins have four games against division opponents, they have to play the Philadelphia Eagles twice and have an away game at Dallas and host the New York Giants. The Redskins also have games against Houston and visit both Jacksonville and Tennessee.
The defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (at 4-5) have not only the two games versus the Redskins, but also have to travel to the New Orleans Saints, the Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Rams. Already two games back, the Eagles are going to have to play almost perfect ball the remainder of the regular season.
The Dallas Cowboys have an easier path to try and overtake the Redskins for the division crown, with four home games, two of which are divisional and one hosting the Saints, and with away games at Atlanta, Indianapolis and the Giants.
Currently at 2-7, the Giants need to spend the rest of the season convincing themselves that Eli Manning is no longer able to carry this team.
The NFC North Division
The North is in a tight race with all teams having played nine games. The Chicago Bears, at 6-3, have a half game lead over the Minnesota Vikings. The Bears and Vikings still have to play each other twice, with the first contest this Sunday night in Chicago, plus the Bears have home games versus the L.A. Rams and the Green Bay Packers. The Bears will finish their season at the Vikings, a game that could decide the division.
The Minnesota Vikings, with a record of 5-3-1, are a half a game back of the Bears. Other than the two games versus the Bears, Minnesota will have to host the Packers, plus they have away games against the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks. Both the Vikings and Bears have some pretty tough schedules to navigate.
The Green Bay Packers have been a little underwhelming this season for whatever reasons. Aaron Rodgers is passing for over 300 yards/game, the team is rushing for over 100 y/g, the Packers defense is tied with the Chiefs at 16th, giving up an average of 24 points/game and yet their record is a mediocre 4-4-1. The Packers have games at Minnesota and at Chicago and if they can win both of those, the remainder of their schedule isn’t as hard and they could eek out a division championship.
The Detroit Lions currently have a record of 3-6. With games remaining against each one of their division opponents, plus games versus the Carolina Panthers and the Rams, The Lions will have to spend the off-season trying to improve both their offense and their defense.
The NFC South Division
Currently holding a two game lead in the NFC South with a 8-1 record is the New Orleans Saints. Of the Saints seven remaining games, four are divisional with two versus the second place Carolina Panthers. They also have games against the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys and Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Carolina Panthers, at 6-3, are well positioned to be playing in January. Other than the two games against the Saints, their schedule isn’t as daunting. With home games versus the Seattle Seahawks and Atlanta Falcons, plus away games at Detroit, Tampa Bay and Cleveland.
The Atlanta Falcons, with a record of 4-5, have dug themselves into a pretty deep hole. With games remaining against the Saints, Packers and Panthers, all away games, plus home games versus the Cowboys and Baltimore Ravens, the Falcons playoff hopes look awful bleak.
The 3-6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, are struggling mightily to find an identity this year. It appears that Jameis Winston might be closer to bust than franchise QB, and Ryan Fitzpatrick, at 35 years old isn’t the future, the Bucs will have to determine before next season if they want to continue with Winston or start shopping for another new signal caller.
The NFC West Division
With a four and a half game lead in the West and a record of 9-1, the Los Angeles Rams, barring something catastrophic, are the only team in either conference to be considered a shoe in to win their division. Other than this little game coming up Monday night that some of you may have heard about, the Rams have away games at Detroit, Chicago and Arizona, plus home games versus the Eagles and San Francisco 49ers. I would expect the Rams to finish the regular season with a record from 13-3 to 15-1.
The Seattle Seahawks, at 4-5, have been able to defeat the weaker opponents they have faced but have struggled against the stronger teams, and with remaining games against the Packers, Panthers, Vikings and Chiefs, the Seahawks aspirations of post season play are pretty dim.
The 2-7 Arizona Cardinals are looking to the future, and may have found their foundation with rookie quarterback Josh Rosen. I would think in the off-season they will determine if former NFL QB and interim offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is the right man to groom young Rosen.
The 2-8 San Francisco 49ers, losing who they hope is their franchise QB to injury in week 3, have had a very tough time finding a win. With four of their remaining six games versus division opponents, three of them on the road, plus home games against Denver and Chicago, it looks as if they will be selecting very early in next years draft.
Current leaders for the NFC playoffs after 10 weeks
At this time it’s hard to imagine the 1 and 2 seeds not belonging to the New Orleans Saints and the Los Angeles Rams. Both teams have one loss but the Rams have played one more game. However, the Saints hold the tiebreaker due to a head to head victory. I would guess that there will be almost as many Chiefs fans in New Orleans Monday night as there are in Kansas City.
The Washington Redskins have a two game lead but look anything but dominant. Assuming they hold on to the win the East, they will likely be the 4th seed and host a playoff game opening weekend.
The Carolina Panthers have a similar situation as the LA Chargers, they could end up with the third best record in the NFC and be relegated to the number five seed.
The NFC North is totally up for grabs as of right now. I’m expecting two teams from the North to make the playoffs. The Packers are now in 3rd place but may have the schedule with the least resistance. With the Packers and Vikings having tied in week 2, assuming one of them wins the rematch, that may determine who plays on and who goes home. I am of course just guessing, but I will say the Bears and Packers make the Playoffs with the Bears winning the number 3 seed.
Paul Pulley – ArrowheadOne
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