Chiefs and the 4-3 Defense:
Does Houston have a Problem
by Paul Pulley | February 13, 2019.
Justin Houston was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the 3rd round of the 2011 draft. Houston had an excellent start to his career and in his 4th year in the league, led the NFL in sacks. Playing exceptionally well through is rookie contract, prompted the Chiefs to reward Houston with a mega-deal, making him one of the highest paid defensive players at that time. Houston is still the 10th highest paid non-quarterback today.
Unfortunately for both Houston and the Chiefs, Houston was seriously injured in the first year of his new contract when he was accidentally leg-whipped by a teammate. This injury caused Houston to miss 16 games of the 2015 and 2016 seasons. Houston returned and played pretty well in 2017 and played even better in 2018 with the exception of missing 4 more games to a hamstring injury.
In 2018 there were three, 3-4 OLB’s that had a higher average annual salary than Houston. In comparing their stats below:
As can be seen, Houston’s stats are comparable to other high paid OLB’s. If those stats stayed equal over a full 16 games, Houston would have finished with about 36 solo tackles and 12 sacks. Houston had two additional sacks in the postseason.
Houston’s Problems
The problems with Houston are: first, he has the largest cap hit on the team for 2019 at $21.1 million. Elite pass rushers get paid elite money, and Houston was definitely an elite pass rusher early in his career. Now that Houston is at the over-the-hill status for NFL players, his pass rushing skills seem to have diminished somewhat, but his overall play is still very good. The second problem is, Houston has always been an OLB in a 3-4 defense and with the Chiefs changing to a 4-3 front, Houston may not be seen as a fit.
Houston: Sum of the Parts
In 2016 Houston restructured his new contract by converting $7.5 Mil from his base salary to a signing bonus. While that gave Kansas City a cap relief of $6M in 2016, it added $1.5M to his cap hit for each of the remaining 4 years of his contract. With 2020 being the final year of his current contract, it would not be advantageous to do something similar without adding years to an already bloated deal.
If Kansas City were to move on from Houston in 2019, it would give the team $14M of cap space but would add $7.1M of dead money. If Houston plays for the Chiefs in 2019, he could be let go in 2020 with a $17.5M savings and only $1.5M of dead money.
It will be financially tough for the Chiefs to keep both Houston and Ford in 2019, if Ford has the Franchise Tag applied. That would have almost $37M of cap space committed to those two players, not that it couldn’t be done, but it would limit the teams other options in Free Agency.
While it’s possible Kansas City could restructure Houston’s contract by adding years at a reduced salary, I hope that the Chiefs have concluded that holding onto players well past their prime is never in the best interest of the team. Even if Houston plays for KC this upcoming season, I would expect 2019 to be his last year in Kansas City. The $17.5M of cap relief in 2020 will go a long way to paying young stars entering their prime, such as Chris Jones, Kendall Fuller and Tyreek Hill.
Whimsical Ramblings from…
My Warp Drive Mind
While many — myself included — have wondered why we haven’t heard anything about Eric Berry getting any kind of procedure done to correct his heel problem, there could be explanations.
What We Know
We know that Berry was cleared by the team doctors to return to practice and to play earlier in the season. I’m not sure of the exact date, but it was by mid-November at the latest. Berry’s issue at that point appeared to be more in his head and heart rather than in his heel. He was choosing not to participate because he didn’t “feel” right.
We also know that Berry’s on field contributions in 2018, 1 whole game and 2 partial games, were absolutely nothing to get excited about.
Some Assumptions
Let’s assume that Berry needs a procedure (surgery) to permanently correct his heel. Let’s also assume that since Berry is under contract that the Chiefs, via the team doctors, have to sign off on and approve any procedure. A third assumption is that Berry would have to be able to pass a physical in order to be released, and if he has surgery, he would not be able to pass a physical.
I am also going to assume that the Chiefs are interested in at least one Safety in Free Agency, possibly Landon Collins or Earl Thomas. What the Chiefs don’t know is if these players, or others, will be available once free agency begins. Collins et al. could be Franchise Tagged. Even if any targeted players do reach free agency, there is no guarantee that they would end up in Kansas City. So the Chiefs could be waiting to see how the beginning of free agency shakes out before making a decision on Berry’s future. If they can acquire a safety that they want, Berry could be released, presumably with a post June 1 designation, and if not, then Berry gets turned over to the doctors.
Postponing any surgery and the resulting recovery isn’t ideal but, if Berry needs to be able to pass a physical in order to be released, the Chiefs may feel it’s in the long term interest of the team. If Berry is to remain a Chief, the worst that can happen with a postponement is Berry isn’t ready by the beginning of the 2019 season, in which case he starts the season on IR or the PUP list or, heaven forbid, he begins the 2019 season with a status of… “day to day.”
Paul Pulley — ArrowheadOne
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