Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs Power Play

LadnerMorse July 23, 2019 No Comments Gallery

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs Power Play – With the Kansas City Chiefs rookies reporting to training camp in St. Joe this week, expectations are at an all time high for a team favored by many, even those outside of Missouri, to win the Super Bowl this coming February. Let’s be clear about the reason for that, which is Patrick Mahomes.

Patrick Mahomes has already done what many of us have anticipated following an MVP season, and that is… attract high level talent to join the Chiefs in a campaign to win it all. As David Bell pointed out in his piece on Sunday, this is not a perfect team, but that doesn’t seem to be stopping the normally reticent naysayers from stepping up and naming the men in red and gold the favorites to take home the Lombardi following this season. Sure, Mr. MVP, Patrick Mahomes, may be the the biggest on-field reason for this kind of prognostication but it’s Mahomes off-field influence that has his teammates just, if not more, excited for this season to begin:

DE supreme, Frank Clark, is not the only top talent who was lured to Kansas City to play with Mr. Mahomes:

Of course, it’s not so much the off-field influence that most fans notice with Patrick Mahomes. It’s clear that some acquisitions this offseason have already set themselves apart in OTAs, including DE Alex Okafor:

With WR Tyreek Hill back in full force this year, WR Sammy Watkins healthy, Demarcus Robinson in a prove it year contractually, and rookie Mecole Hardman offering more speed to the wide receiving corps, Patrick Mahomes deep ball passing should improve. John Dixon wrote an article for ArrowheadPride called, “Patrick Mahomes Should be Expected to Improve His Deep Ball Passing in 2019” in which he states,

“PFF counts all aimed passes thrown for more than 20 yards in the air — regardless of whether the receiver is open or not. Mahomes attempted 92 such passes in 2018 — again tops in the league — completing 44 of them. But after adjusting for drops, Mahomes completion percentage on these passes was 51.1% — just slightly (but not significantly) behind Drew Brees and Baker Mayfield among passers attempting at least 50% of the deep passes Mahomes tried.”

Any improvement in Patrick Mahomes deep passing percentage should make the Chiefs offense even more powerful than it already is and it seems a reasonable expectation that it will improve this year since his overall passing percentage was 66.0% in 2018. It’s also reasonable to assume Mahomes will improve on that number as well since he finished only 16th best in the NFL in passing percentage last year.

The sign of a really good player is making those around him, or her, better. Patrick Mahomes has already done that. Consider the reception yards progress of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Demarcus Robinson over the past two seasons:

Note: both Chris Conley and Demetrius Harris have been omitted from this list. Conley because he only played in 5 games in 2017 due to injury. Harris because it’s hard to evaluate someone who drops the ball with his frequency, which was 50% over the past two seasons: 30 drops out of 60 targets: 18/35 receptions in 2017 and 12/25 receptions in 2018.

Exceeding Expectations

I think it would be safe to say Patrick Mahomes exceeded everyone’s expectations in 2018, even those like GM Brett Veach who once said of Mahomes, “One of the best I’ve ever seen,” prior to the time he took over the starting duties from Alex Smith. I know I didn’t project Mahomes would throw for 50 TDs and 5,000 yards, that’s for sure. Without embarrassing anyone, let’s take a look back at what one of my favorite, and most consistent, writers over at ArrowheadAddict said about Patrick Mahomes one year ago, before he ever began his first season as a starter. Here’s who Lyle Graversen compared him too, and then the numbers he projected for PMII:

“[Aaron] Rodgers is an interesting comparison because he didn’t start right away and had a chance to learn the system before taking over as the full time starter in 2008. Now, Rodgers did have three years on the bench compared to Mahomes one. I still think its interesting to look at his numbers his first year as the starter.

341 of 536 (63.6%)
4,038 yards (7.5 YPA)
28 touchdowns
13 interceptions
93.8 quarterback rating

Ok all you Chiefs homers out there, I think this may be the perfect top end for your expectations. If Patrick Mahomes is as good as we all hope that he is then this is probably his ceiling in 2018. I think his floor is probably Donovan McNabb’s numbers his first year as a starter that we looked at to start this post off.

330 of 569 (58%)
3,365 yards (5.9 YPA)
21 touchdowns
13 interceptions
77.8 quarterback rating”

Here’s how Patrick Mahomes actually came out in 2018:

    • 383 of 580 (66%)
    • 5,097 yards (8.8 YPA)
    • 50 touchdowns
    • 12 interceptions
    • 113.8 quarterback rating

Tiers Of Joy

Sometimes it’s revealing to get a Fantasy perspective about a player. Jeff Ratcliffe of PFF has this to say about the only QB he lists as a “Tier One” QB this year:

“There’s no question that Mahomes is the clear elite option at the position this season following his breakout 2018 campaign.”

Also coming from ProFootballFocus is the perspective of Michael Renner who had this to say about the MVP race in 2018:

“The big separator though between Mahomes and Drew Brees was consistency. Mahomes produced game in and game out in a high-volume passing offense. He didn’t have a single-game grade below 60.0 all season long, and he only had three below 70.0. Brees, on the other hand, had one below 60.0 and four more below 70.0.

It wasn’t merely consistency though; the high-end play was obviously there as well. His 46 big-time throws were three more than anyone else in the NFL. Mahomes broke PFF’s single-season deep passing yardage record with 1,514 yards on passes of 20 or more yards downfield- and that’s with three dropped deep balls on the year. In fact, Mahomes had 35 dropped passes from his receivers this season, the third-most of any quarterback in the NFL.”

Consistency and high-end play. When other players are exposed to a player with those kinds of capabilities, they can’t help but be inspired and raise their own level of play.

Anticipation and Perception

While there are those who pooh-pooh the idea that a player will practice harder when influenced by a top talent, like Patrick Mahomes… there’s no denying the mental and psychological imperatives. When you see those around you excelling, and believing they can climb the steepest mountains… you have a tendency to believe you can do it too. Personally, I recall once, while in Puerto Vallarta, standing on the beach and saying out loud to anyone in my family who would listen, “I’m never doing that, never,” referring to getting into a Para-sailing harness, which was attached to a long rope and a speedboat, which was yanking one person after another into the sky, for a short gliding journey, up high over the water and then back down to the sandy beach. However… after watching another family, one-by-one, take that trip, first a father, then a mother, then a teenage girl, then a young son, and then their grandmother… I was basically shamed into the idea that I had to go and do this “dangerous” thing. Which I did, and it was exhilarating! Then my wife… my teenage daughter… and her friend, all took turns soaring into the blue above the dolphin bay… and loving it.

There’s been a lot of talk about the lack of players at certain positions who don’t have extended contracts and consequently we should be worried about the future of the team. However, as long as the Chiefs have a player like Patrick Mahomes leading the way, on, and off, the field, I don’t see anything but the Chiefs in a power play.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

 

 

 

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