Patrick Mahomes is King of the Most Important Stat in Football – the man’s name is, Bud Goode (pronounced “goody”), and is said to be the Godfather of pro football analysis. He worked on the Art Linkletter show from 1959 to 1971 before moving on to use his mathematical background to investigate stats for NFL teams, including the likes of Dick Vermeil, Bill Parcells, and Bill Walsh. After he made that transition, one particular sportswriter pegged him, “a Hollywood press agent loose in a Twilight Zone of numbers.” Goode is gone now but his influence lives on. He has predicted a high percentage of the Super Bowl winners beginning with the Dolphins over the Vikings back in the early 1970s. If you can remember that far back, the Vikes were favored by many, by a favorable amount. However, perhaps his biggest claim to fame is saying there is one stat that is the most important in all of football: the Net Passing Yards stat… the average per pass attempt for a QB.
It just so happens that the Kansas City Chiefs QB, Patrick Mahomes, led the league in that category in 2018. Before talking about that, let’s first take a saunter down Net Yards per Attempt Memory Lane.
Here are the All-time leaders in the Net Yards category (based upon at least 1500 pass attempts) including the number of championships they’ve won (these stats come from footballdb.com).
* Ed Brown, the lowest profile name on this list, was the QB for 3 different teams in the 1950s and played for the Bears in the NFL Championship game in 1956 vs the NY Giants, and lost. However, the Giants had Vince Lombardi as their offensive coordinator and Tom Landry was the Giants defensive coordinator so… the loss was rather understandable (Landry and Lombardi went on, as head coaches, to account for 10 NFL championships, including Super Bowls).
Obviously, one of the big takeaways from this chart is that a high percentage of the QBs who led the league in net passing yards per attempt… have also won a title, in fact, 9 out of the top 12 achieved that status. Besides Ed Brown, only Tony Romo and Philip Rivers are the other two on this list who have never scaled that mountain. Rivers has been knocking on that door for years and Romo had his chances as well. Ed Brown was right there and came up short, no fault of his own. The point is, if your name is on this list, you’ll likely be knocking on the championship door.
One other stat of note here is that QB Steve Young finished 4th on this list, and first among new era QBs. What stands out about that is that he had many of the same receivers as Joe Montana (including Jerry Rice, the GOAT at WR) and played in essentially the same system. Montana finished 27th on the all-time list and in case you’re wondering, Tom Brady ranks #28 on this list.
Of course the reason for bringing any of this up is to outline the outstanding performance of the Chiefs current quarterback, Patrick Mahomes. Here then, is a chart showing the list of the Top 12 Net Passing leaders in 2018 (these stats come from teamrankings.com).
The place where you see a team’s name instead of a specific player indicates that more than one QB played during the season for that team, so the team’s name was used.
What broad jumps off the page here is that no other QB in the NFL last year had a NY/A average of over 7.9 while Mahomes finished at 8.3. That’s a huge amount especially when you take into account that 20+ other QBs in the league couldn’t break the 7.0 barrier for Net Yards per Attempt. That’s just astounding.
In a piece called, “The Most Important Stat in Football” Allen Barra from stadiumtalk.com writes that:
“… yards per pass attempt — today known as net yards per pass attempt, or NY/A — remains the most important stat in pro football.”
Different stats are available at different sites, so here’s another view of similar information only it’s focused on the Team:
Patrick Mahomes threw 20 interceptable balls in 2018. Not interceptions… interceptable balls. Mahomes had 12 INTs when all was said and done but the average rate of interceptions for all QBs is just under 50% on interceptable balls. So one could reason that if Mahomes threw fewer interceptable balls in 2019, he’s going to have fewer INTs… and… if his rate comes down to the average (near to 48%, the league average, instead of 60% where he ended up = 12 of 20), that will help as well. That’s an important point because it applies directly to the net yards per attempt rate (NY/A).
If Mahomes is able to keep his INTs at a lower rate, his NY/A rate should also go up and that’s an eye-popping stat when he’s already coming in at an NFL all-time high percentage rate compared to all other QBs… ever, in the new era… much less just leading the league in 2018.
While many are waiting for Patrick Mahomes performance to come tumbling down like Humpty Dumpty on a tenable wall of stats, it seems less likely when you consider the changes on offense this offseason that will make the team better, especially in the NY/A department. Gone are WR Chris Conley and TE Demetrius Harris, who both had low percentage rates of targets to catches.
Some of Harris and Conley’s targets should go to Sammy Watkins. If Watkins has a healthy year… and all signs look good for now… then his 73% reception rate in 2018 should come in handy, assuming it carries over.
Some of Harris and Conley’s targets will also go to Mecole Hardman. Hardman averaged 16.0 yards per reception at Georgia and if he maintains anything close to that, Mr. Mahomes NY/A rating should go up as well (although, admittedly, that’s not a direct correlation).
While Demarcus Robinson’s target to catch rate is only 59% for his career, his own stats should improve with more experience with his MVP QB.
Another reason it is less likely that Mahomes performance will drop in 2019 is the way Andy Reid schemes a game. In his piece just yesterday called, “The ‘Andyvantage’: Why the normal rules of offensive efficiency don’t apply to Andy Reid and the Chiefs,” Seth Keysor pointed out that,
“When Reid designs a screen or other RB target, he doesn’t simply throw them the ball in space and tell them to make a play. His plays are intricately designed to leave a defense hesitating and guessing as to where the ball will end up and what direction it will be traveling.”
Keysor then shared this video:
Keysor goes on:
“Watch the movement of the defenders at all levels of the field. Some are carried to the wrong side of the play following their coverage assignment. Others, such as the deep safety, are forced to wait … and wait … for the play to develop, moving one direction then another as the fakes materialize. This gives the offensive linemen time to get into space in front of Hunt. When the defenders realize where the ball is ultimately going, it’s too late and the Chiefs score.”
So, Reid doesn’t just scheme up screen plays, he’s throwing his O-hocus-pocus on the dumbfounded defenses all the time and it’s one of the reason’s pundits with knowledge of the game often refer to him as an offensive genius. Whether or not you ascribe to that idea or not, you have to admit, Reid is not going to fail Mahomes in the play calling department.
You pair Andy-cadabra Reid… with Pat-Tricks Mahomes… and you have a perfect storm.
All signs lead to an even better season for Patrick Mahomes. He could even show a dip in his NY/A and still lead the league. However, when you’re the King of the hill, it’s much easier to stay on top of the hill… especially when you’re throwing to a guy named Hill. Of course, I think the most important stat of all is: the won-loss record of the team you are quarterbacking. Now, Mr. Mahomes is 14-5 for his career by my calculations (the last game of 2017 is included as a win for him, as well as his playoff record in 2018), and that’s a .737 winning percentage. Not a bad start. Not bad at all.
Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
P.S. Please join us for the OPEN THREAD during tonight’s game as the Chiefs Host the 49ers, at 7:00 p.m. CDT. The thread should be up around 4:00 p.m. CDT.
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