Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

How the Chiefs Can Beat the Colts (if they face off again)

LadnerMorse October 8, 2019 No Comments Gallery

How the Chiefs Can Beat the Colts (if they face off again) – if the Kansas City Chiefs have to face off against the Indianapolis Colts again this year it will be in the playoffs. If that happens, fans will want to know how the Chiefs are going to beat them. More importantly, fans are wanting to know how the Chiefs are going to shift gears right now and keep other teams from employing the Colts methods which whipped them on Sunday. Here, then, is how the Chiefs can beat the Colts if they face off again.

There are 3 definitive ways the Colts beat the Chiefs on Sunday. So, let’s look at each one to see what the Chiefs will need to change:

1.  Winning the Time of Possession (ToP)

The Colts won the ToP in dramatic fashion and the Chiefs need to turn that around.

Actually, the Chiefs have shown that they don’t necessarily need to always win the time of possession… as much as they need to keep it close. In their first two victories over the Jags and the Raiders, the Chiefs won the time of possession battle but even though they lost the ToP battle in their games vs the Ravens and Lions… they were able to win those games as well. In those two wins where they lost the ToP, the Chiefs averaged 27 minutes of possession.

Since both of those games were close games, it’s reasonable to assume that if the Lions or the Ravens each had one more possession, it would likely have changed the outcome. Consequently, I’m going to set 27 minutes, or 45% ToP as the limit for the Chiefs to win a game. Why is that important? Because, on Sunday Night vs the Colts, Indy had the ball 37:15, or 61.9% of the time, while K.C. had the ball for 22 minutes and 45 seconds.. 

The Chiefs were within 1.4%, ToP, of allowing the Colts to possess the ball for twice as long as they had it. Since I have arbitrarily set 27 minutes ToP as a limit for winning the game, you can see how far off the Chiefs were, and how disastrous that was for them on Sunday Night.

2. Controlling the Run

The Colts controlled the run game in dramatic fashion… and the Chiefs need to even that out, moving forward.

Now, winning the ToP means nothing without controlling the oppositions running game. Notice, I did not say, “Stopping the Run.” That’s because, in the history of the NFL, there are likely a handful of games in which any team has actually “completely” stopped another team from running the ball. Without getting into a verbal skirmish over semantics… the Chiefs need to be able to step up and slow the other team down — to a grinding halt if necessary — any time they decide they want to do that.

In much the same way that Patrick Mahomes has been able to — 90% of the time — impose his will upon an opposing defense, the Chiefs D needs to be able to pull out all the stops and slam the run-door shut on opposing offenses. In the past, the Chiefs D has been able to do just that. Sunday Night? Not nearly and frankly, not at all.

So, was Sunday Night an aberration? I don’t think so. I would call it more of a trend that other teams have picked up on and are now beginning to impose upon the Chiefs D: Run it and run it, until they can stop it. This week, they couldn’t. The Chiefs opponents have rushed for the following totals:

The reason I highlighted the carries column in red, and you can ignore the other columns pretty much, because you’ll notice the numbers of carries per game has risen each and every game until… the Colts beat the Chiefs. This is another reason you can expect the Chiefs opponents to continue this trend of running the ball at least 25 times. While you’ll notice that I have highlighted the carries per game cell in red, and it reads: 29.4 — carries per game — the average cutoff appears to be somewhere between 20-and-25 carries per game… if they want to put themselves in position to win.

While the Chiefs won their first two games by margins of 14 and 18, those wins most certainly should be related to the minimal number of running plays their opponents ran, 16 and 19. Since the last three games were not only tight, but included a loss… and… their opponents running plays averaged 37.3 running plays per game… it’s also just as likely that those games rushing results were connected to the final outcomes. Since 37.3 (in the past 3 game) and 17.5 (the average of 16 and 19 rushes in their first two games) averages out to 27.4 rushes… I have once again set an arbitrary number of 25, as the top amount the Chiefs can allow before they are in danger of losing a contest.

Since you’ll also notice that the Yards Per Carries in each game are all over the map, the total number of rushing plays seems to be more relevant to winning than the actual YPC average. So, keep the numbers of carries down (to 25 or under) in each game, and the Chiefs odds of winning go up.

3. Creating a Juggernaut Offensive Line

The Colts displayed their dominant Offensive Line… and the Chiefs need to create that same benefit.

While I realize that it seems silly to be pursuing major changes to the OL in mid-season, that’s exactly what I am suggesting. The Colts have carefully crafted a stellar OL which showed that not only is it important to win at the line of scrimmage, but if you do that, you can overcome the greatest QB in the game right now by controlling the ground game and the clock in the process.

While many are wanting the Chiefs to trade for a CB who can lock down one side of the field, I would argue that if the Chiefs can’t… protect THE FRANCHISE GUY behind them… and… crack some creases in the defensive line for their own RBs to take advantage of, then the likelihood of this Chiefs team going to the Super Bowl anytime soon is greatly diminished.

Since we all already know about the injuries allowed to Patrick Mahomes…

… no matter what you want to call it, friendly fire or the insanity of Cam Erving…

… we must also look at the Offensive Line’s inability to block for the talented stall of RBs the Chiefs have in house:

What pops of  the chart here is the 14 total carries the Chiefs had vs the Colts. As you recall, I set the 20-to-25 rushing attempts limit for the Chiefs D to restrict other teams to if they want to place themselves in a position to win a game. So, the same holds true for the Chiefs rushing attack. In every game they won this year, they rushed 22 times or more. Consequently, the Colts won this game on two fronts… the OL and the DL.

I’ve heard several of the Chiefs defensive players say that stopping the run is a mindset, and while that may be at least partially true, I’m giving the Defense a break today based upon their 19 points they allowed vs the Colts. Consequently, I’m laying more of the blame for this loss at the feet of the OL than the DL.

Making the rushing attack a successful enterprise, is based on skills, the skill such as are suggested by the National Underclassmen Combines:

1. Fantastic Blocking Technique
2. Field Awareness/Opponent Understanding/Intelligence
3. Leadership
4. Upper and Lower Body Power at the Point of Attack
5. Athleticism and Footwork
6. Improvisational Decision Making Skills

The reasons for bringing these skills to the fore is that, aside from RT Mitchell Schwartz, each of the Chiefs Offensive linemen only possess a scant handful of these skills. In other words, Andy Reid has made the decision to bring in Offensive Linemen who he believes he and his staff can coach up to these standards. In education we called this, “Teaching on a Shoestring.” I see this as a fatal mistake and money misplaced, especially when the protection of your franchise quarterback is at stake.

Beyond safeguarding Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs Offensive Line has to be able to pry open holes for LeSean McCoy, who is probably headed for the Hall of Fame one day (10,820 rushing yards and a 5.4 ypc this year), and the speedy Damien Williams (4.43 – 40 yards dash), who has already shown he can be a very good RB when given the space to create. Sunday’s game indicates the Chiefs OL was wholeheartedly outplayed by an inferior front 7 of the Colts, who were missing stars: DL Tyquan Lewis and LB Darius Leonard.

When LT Eric Fisher returns to action, the Chiefs will still need a Left Guard, a Center and a Swing Tackle. While deals at the trade deadline could bring in an interior lineman, Veach will probably have to bring back someone like Jeff Allen to fulfill the Swing Tackle role. Even though Allen is not going to provide much more than spot duty on an infrequent basis, I believe he’d be an upgrade over Cam Erving.

While the #1 and #2 “Ways to Beat the Colts” listed above, are critical to the Chiefs ongoing success, if they prioritize fixing #3 and set the improvement of the OL as a precedence moving forward… the other critical issues will fade into the background. Erecting and maintaining a “Juggernaut” OL for the next ten years seems like an obvious choice to me, especially when you consider who is playing behind those men.

Yes, several aspects of the team must be fixed:

    • Andy Reid needs to make sure he has better play selection in the game plan, and
    • the DBs need to improve in coverage, and
    • team discipline must improve to stop the high volume of penalties, and
    • all defenders need to learn to tackle better and how to punch the ball out, and
    • the WR room needs to get Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins back… 

However, the Chiefs must construct a high-caliber Offensive Line. While I grew up idealizing memorable Defensive Lines like the L.A. Rams Fearsome Foursome (Lamar Lundy, Merlin Olsen, Roosevelt Grier, and Deacon Jones) and the Chiefs 1969 Super Bowl Four (Aaron Brown, Buck Buchanan, Curley Culp, and Jerry Mays)… I recognize the need for the 2019 Kansas City Chiefs to stabilize the team on the other side of the ball, with a Juggernaut Offensive Line, with the best bulldozers and baracaders that bucks can buy. If not… you can look forward to watching Mahomes on the bench at several points over the next decade… or imagine the nightmare of his career ending prematurely.

 

The incompetent and shoddy play of the OL was the most shocking part of the Chiefs loss to the Colts, for me. So, build that line now! Don’t wait another day.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

 

 

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