Chiefs: Five Numbers That Matter – My forthcoming insight will highlight five stat categories that matter for the success of the Kansas City Chiefs #runitback mission: To win the 2021 Super Bowl and boldly go where no one has gone before… well, not in a long time. After some intensive research I have discovered five separate categories that determine at a high rate, the individual success of teams making it to a Super Bowl.
Point Differential
This stat is calculated by Offensive points scored versus Defensive points allowed. The Kansas City Chiefs currently lead the league with +103. That is 3 points better than the second place team, with the Steelers at +100. And they are 25 points better than the third place team in these rankings, which is the Ravens at +79.
Why does this stat matter? A total of 35 of the Super Bowl winners had been ranked in the top 10 in scoring differential, points allowed on offense versus points scored on defense. Since 2004 the New England Patriots have led in this category 9 different years, and they advanced to the Super Bowl 6 of those years. finishing with a record of 4 – 2. Philadelphia was first in point differential for the 2017 j6 season on their way to a Super Bowl Championship.
The Kansa City Chiefs in 2019 were 3rd place in the PD rankings:
- Baltimore at +249
- New England at +195
- San Francisco at + 143
Offense vs Defense
From the old adage, defense wins championships, a total of only 10 of 52 Super Bowl champions had the No.1 ranked defense in total yards allowed. However, with the record shattering offenses of the past few seasons, “defense wins championships” seems like it’s just not true anymore. In the 2018 season, the four teams making it to the NFC and AFC championship were the top 4 offensive teams (Chiefs, Rams, Saints, Patriots).
The great teams of the ’60s, ’70s and ’80s lived by their defenses. The Packer teams from the first two Super Bowls finished ranked first and third in scoring defense, but only sixth and ninth on offense. The ’72 and ’73 Dolphins ranked first on defense in both seasons. The Steeler teams of ’74, ’75 and ’78 finished first or second on defense each season. The ’85 Bears and ’86 Giants finished first and second on defense. With the restrictions on pass defense, teams like the Cowboys, 49ers and Redskins of the 1980s and 1990s emerged with offenses that were often equal or superior to their defenses.
Nevertheless, 20 years ago great defenses did matter. The Ravens in 2000 won with a legendary defense and mediocre offense as did the 2002 Buccaneers and 2003 Patriots.The mantra in the 2018 season is more akin to “defense gets you into the playoffs… but no farther.” Among the teams ousted from the 2018 playoffs before the championship round were the Bears ranked 1st in defense, the Ravens 2nd, Texans 5th, Cowboys 6th, Chargers 8th, and Seahawks 11th, while none of their offenses cracked the top 10 other than the Chargers (8th).
In the 2018 season divisional round, three of the four games, the winner scored more than 30 points, so maybe that mantra needs to be adjusted to: offense matters a lot in the NFL. I have found that among the 54 NFL Super Bowls, the better defensive team — measured by points allowed that season— has won 29 times. The better offensive team won 25 times. Nineteen Super Bowls have featured a team superior on both sides of the ball. Those teams have won 14 of those games. So, in actuality: balance, offensively and defensively, is most desired for multiple championships.
Sacks
A total of 52 of 54 Super Bowl winners have had at least 30 sacks in a season. Sacks and Quarterback pressures can cause turnovers, offensive penalties, errant passes, negative plays, and create poor timing by the offensive units overall. All of these stats can contribute to an opponent not having the ability to consistently move the ball down the field and/or to score.
Playoff Sacks Records: the NFL didn’t begin to record sacks until 1982
Very good representation in Super Bowl games by this list of players, with a win/loss record of 32 – 14. Only 1 player never made it to the Super Bowl, and only 3 players never won a Super Bowl (Buffalo 0 – 4 Xs 2).
Most Super Bowl Sacks – Career
Only 2 of these players lost a Super Bowl, Dexter Manley was (2-1), Jeff Wright (0-4). The other players listed here were 13-0 in Super Bowls.
Most Super Bowl Sacks – Game
Of these players only Dennis Owens, Jeff Wright, and Raylee Johnson efforts came in a losing cause. What these numbers show, is that pressuring the Quarterback does assist a teams effort to win a Super Bowl. The Chiefs QB pressures in the fourth quarter in last year’s Super Bowl definitely affected the outcome.
The Kansas City Chiefs, in 2020, do not have a high number of sacks, and they are 1.36 percentage points in the sacks department lower than last year’s rates. However, they’re still on pace to get 33 by the end of the year.
Turnover Differential
In the Super Bowl era, when a team wins the turnover battle, it wins the game 77 percent of the time. Only seven Super Bowl winners have ever finished with a negative number in the turnover differential category. According to Pro Football Reference, the plus/minus ratio of all 47 Super Bowl winners and discovered the average number in that category was a very healthy plus+8.7. No Super Bowl winner has recorded less than 25 takeaways in the regular season, and only six champions have ever finished with a negative number in the turnover category. In 43 Super Bowls where one team had a better turnover differential, that team won the game 37 times.
Super Bowl winners have committed 52 turnovers (1.2 per game). Super Bowl losers have committed 135 turnovers (3.2 per game). Three Super Bowl winners (V, XIV, and XL) had more turnovers than their opponents. Fifteen Super Bowl winners committed zero turnovers. Each of the last 10 Super Bowl winners ranked in the top 12 in takeaways per game.
During the 2019 season the Chiefs were only ranked No. 7 with +8 TR (Turnover Ratio), but better than the three teams they faced in the playoffs and Super Bowl. Current rankings for the 2020 season has: Tennessee Titans +10, Pittsburgh Steelers +9, and Kansas City Chiefs +8.
Quarterback Efficiency Ratings Differential
Going all the way back in history to 1940 the team that led the league in both offensive passer rating and defensive passer rating all won championships. (1941 Bears, 1943 Bears, 1949 Eagles, 1855 Browns, 1958 Colts, 1959 Colts, 1966 Packers, 1996 Packers).
Passer Rating Differential is a stat first calculated by Cold, Hard Football Facts analyst, statistician and spreadsheet savant Luis DeLoureiro who once wrote a piece called: “The Most Important Stat in Football,” for Sports Illustrated. Some excerpts from this article follow:
Passer Rating Differential is the most important stat in football. It’s the one indicator virtually guaranteed to separate winners from losers, and champs from chumps. How good is the stat? Consider that 40 of 71 NFL champs since 1940 (56 %) finished No. 1 or No. 2 in Passer Rating Differential. More proof is that:
New Orleans finished No.1 in Passer Rating Differential in 2009, that year, the Saints won the Super Bowl. Green Bay finished No. 1 in Passer Rating Differential in 2010, and they, too, won the Super Bowl that year. The average NFL champion over a 70 year time span (1940-2010 produced a truly incredible Passer Rating Differential of +27.4 (82.3 Offensive Passer Rating vs. 54.9 Defensive Passer Rating). Every great “dynasty” (1960s Packers, 1970s Steelers, 1980s/90s 49ers, 2000s Patriots) were represented on a top 25 list of highly rated PRD, during those years.
So, how does that apply to the Chiefs? Or, how about, how did that apply to K.C. last year? For the 2019 season the Chiefs were # 3 offense, # 5 defense, which was overall # 2 with 105.6 – 80.8 = 24.5 The Ravens were # 5 on offense, # 2 on defense, which was#1 overall with 103.6 – 77.5 = 26.1.
The Kansas City Chiefs are currently at a first place ranking for the 2020 season, with a 115.6 (2nd) – 81.4 (4th) = 34.2 differential, with the Las Vegas Raiders at a distant: 107.4 (5th) – 87.0 (7th) = 20.4.
Five Numbers
With any one of these stat categories, a team has made it to the Super Bowl, and won a high percentage of the time. However, now combine all five together, and if one team is highly ranked in all of the categories, then that increases that team’s odds tremendously. As we see that the Kansas City Chiefs are No. 1 in scoring differential (1st in points scored-and-6th in points allowed), No. 1 in QBR differential (2nd-4th), No. 1 ranked offense, No. 14 defense, (8th passing-24th rushing), No. 3 in turnover plus/minus, and average in QB pressures applied, we can see why most everyone says the Kansas City Chiefs are the top favorites to win it all again. I challenge any reader to find another NFL team that meets all of these five stat numbers that matter.
Alan Haupt — ArrowheadOne
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