Chiefs at Saints, Game Preview: OPEN THREAD – Are the Chiefs bored? It’s certainly possible- they have failed to cover their last 5 games against the spread (the privilege of being a Chiefs fan today). Are they just not motivated to beat lesser teams late in the game? Or, are there true deep seeded issues in how the team handles a lead? There’s always something to blame for why a team blows a lead of significance: the playcalling, the defense, getting conservative and of course, the players not taking an opponent seriously enough. Sometimes, one of these complaints are true, and sometimes all of them are true, while sometimes it’s not any of them: it’s just that the process didn’t net the desired results.
Context is everything; with 14 minutes remaining in the 4th quarter the Chiefs had a 30-10 lead after going on a 30 point run against the Dolphins since the 1st quarter. Patrick Mahomes had single coverage on Tyreek Hill as he threw into the end zone to go up 37-10. It just happened that the single coverage was one of the best corners in the league in Xavien Howard, who made a 1% play. If Howard wasn’t an absolute animal, the Chiefs go up by 27 and the game is effectively over. However, because of that play we now have ESPN and Fox talking heads claiming that the Bills are better than Chiefs, because the Chiefs haven’t covered the spread in their last 5 games (LOL). The process will always be more important than the results in this instance. Andy is not getting conservative, if anything he’s shown the propensity to get more aggressive, as the season has gone along in end game situations: including two passing plays on 4th and short (Tampa Bay and Miami). The best thing the Chiefs can do is continue to do what got them the lead in the beginning; keep throwing the ball.
What to watch for….
Alvin Kamara: As a Chiefs fan I’m not sure there’s any player more terrifying to play against than Kamara. He is everything the Chiefs defense struggles with. The Chiefs have given up the third most yardage in the league to running backs as pass catchers and truthfully they haven’t really faced many backs who have that as a true skill set this year. Kamara has had a somewhat quiet season this year after missing 2 games to injury, and his usage decreasing with Taysom Hill filling in for
Drew Brees. Despite the missed time, Kamara still leads the league in yards after the catch by 185 yards. If there ever was a game for the athletic linebackers of the Chiefs (Dorian O’Daniel and Willie Gay) to make their presence known this would be the game. Tackling Kamara in open space has to be priority number one for the Chiefs defense without Michael Thomas suiting up, the Saints offense runs through him.
By now we all know the gamesmanship that was played all week by the Saints about Taysom Hill, instead of Drew Brees, starting. News broke Friday morning that Brees would be the “Starter” against the Chiefs today. Of course starting only means one snap, while I don’t think Bress is taking a single snap today I could certainly see a 50/50 split of the two players to throw off the Chiefs defense. It would not be unlike Sean Payton to do something like this in order to disrupt a
teams game plan. Obviously, when Brees is in the game he can expect the Chiefs to blitz his 11 broken ribs like crazy. Without WR Michael Thomas, the Chiefs can afford to send even more pressure on the QB tandem. When Hill takes snaps at QB the Chiefs can rely on their game plan from facing Lamar Jackson earlier in the year.
The Tackle Position
Some would argue that left tackle is one of the top 4 most important positions in football. While it may or may not be true, Chiefs fans need to remember back to how brutal the offensive line was when Eric Fisher got hurt in 2019. Which in turn led to Mahomes’ bum ankle that he struggled with until the knee injury. That was with Mitchell Schwartz. The Chiefs could actually play today, down 6 starting offensive lineman since the season started, due to injury and opt-outs. The tackles have a tough task ahead too, in defending against a great defensive front with Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport who both rank inside the top 15 of PFF’s grades for edge defenders. Andy has schemed around pressure before, but look for the Chiefs to move the pocket a lot with Mahomes and utilize the screen game as well.
Travis Kelce: There’s just not enough superlatives to describe how good of a season Kelce is having. Every defense walks onto that field knowing he is a top priority to stop and they can’t do it. It doesn’t matter how they try to cover him:corner, safety or linebackers.. He’s going to be open. The strength of the Saints defense is in the front 7 the back end is not as strong and can give up yards to the TE. Kelce will also be crucial in this game because he may be called upon to help keep Mahomes
up right as well. While the Saints have been truly dominant against the run not allowing a 100 yard rusher in 56 straight games until last Sunday, Kelce could be asked to keep the Saints’ defense in check there too.
The Quarterback Spectacle
We were robbed of Mahomes vs Rodgers (maybe coming in February??), but we’ve been fortunate to watch Mahomes face some of the all-time greats in his time as a starter. Mahomes has faced Tom Brady, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger and now Drew Brees. It’s always great to see the new generation of the NFL face off against the future of Canton, Ohio. In 2018, we got what is undoubtedly the worst Super Bowl of the past decade in the Rams and Patriots (thanks to Dee Ford and the referees). We all deserved a Chiefs/ Saints 2018 Super Bowl and now we finally get it, sort of. The game might as well be a match up in February: since the start of 2018, no team has a better record than the Chiefs or Saints, who have each gone 36-9 and meet today. The only thing that could make this game better was if the Superdome was rocking full of fans or, if it was in Tampa in February. So, sit back and relax and remember: the Chiefs only have to win against the Chargers and either the Saints or the Falcons to clinch the #1 seed no matter what the Steelers do.
Prediction: I think the Saints are going to get a little too cute at the QB position with Hill and Brees. I just can’t imagine the Saints giving Brees 100% of the snaps when he has to play a game 5 days later. The Saints offense will also be hampered by the loss of Michael Thomas plus Drew Brees is still playing injured. While the Saints defense is legit we’ve seen the Chiefs offense mitigate that time and time again.
In the end the Chiefs get a few more stops than the Saints. Chiefs 33, Saints 28
Price Carter — ArrowheadOne
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