Chiefs Must Defeat the 14 – 2 Record Jinx – Is this jinx a real jinx? Some say that it has some credence, but there is usually a good reason behind their failures. I will attempt to point out the facts so that it is better understood about why the failures happened. I’ll also address the odds associated with being a #1 seed, then address the “Rust Versus Rest” theories.
The Facts Not Fiction
1978 was the first year that the NFL played a sixteen game schedule. In the 42 years since then, we have seen 18 teams finish the regular 14-and-2 and five of those teams went on to win the Super Bowl that same year, plus:
- Five Teams lost the Super Bowl that same year.
- Three Teams lost in the Conference Championship game that same year.
- Five Teams lost their first playoff game that same you.
Below is a list of teams who have finished 14-and-2 and the outcome in the playoffs:
More on the 14-and-2 Jinx
1983 Washington Redskins lost to the 12-and-4 Oakland Raiders, with Marcus Allen having a career day. (20 carries 191 yards rushing)
1984 Miami Dolphins was Dan Marino’s second year in the league and they lost to the 15 – 1 San Francisco 49ers led by Joe Montana.
1986 Chicago Bears – The talk of a dynasty was freely in the air for the 1986 Chicago Bears as the season began. They were coming off a 1985 season where they simply demolished the NFL and won the Super Bowl. The ’86 Bears were awfully good in their own right, but quarterback instability (injury prone) proved to be their undoing in the end.
1990 San Francisco 49ers would have been a three-peat of Super Bowl wins (they won in both 88 and 89) but in 1990 the 49ers had the NFC Championship won, until Joe Montana took a vicious shot from Leonard Marshall, severely injuring him. An inexperienced Steve Young could not hold the lead against the New York Giants.
1992 San Francisco 49ers – In the first game of what would become one of the fiercest rivalries in the 90s, the Cowboys knocked off the 49ers. The 49ers, who struggled with ball security, as they had four turnovers, while the Cowboys had none. Even with the turnovers the Niners clawed to within 24–20. (But lost 30-20)
1998 Atlanta Falcons won their final nine regular season games to earn the #2 seed in the NFC for the postseason and the first-week bye. They beat the San Francisco 49ers (12-4) in the Divisional round and the #1-seed Minnesota Vikings (15-1) in the NFC Championship Game before losing to Reeves’ old team, the Denver Broncos (14-2 regular season also), 34–19 in Super Bowl XXXIII.
1999 Jacksonville Jaguars three losses (2 in regular season, 1 in playoffs) were all defeats to the Tennessee Titans eventual AFC Champions.
2001 St. Louis Rams known as the “Greatest Show on Turf” lost in a suspicious way (Spygate) to the New England Patriots.
2005 Indianapolis Colts started the season with a 13-game winning streak and were heavily favored to go to and win Super Bowl XL. They were favored over the Steelers because they had easily beaten them in their previous meeting. However the Colts lost their first playoff game to the eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers, when Placekicker Mike Vanderjagt missed a crucial field goal.
2006 San Diego Chargers had their best season ever, record wise. Head Coach Marty Schottenheimer had a lifelong career jinx (not a 14-2) in the playoffs, it haunted him in Cleveland, Kansas City, and San Diego. They lost a heartbreaker to the New England Patriots.
2009 Indianapolis Colts were aiming to end their three year Super Bowl drought. During the playoffs, the Colts defeated the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round and the New York Jets in the AFC Championship game and represented the AFC in Super Bowl XLIV. The 14-2 Colts lost to the 13-3 New Orleans Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. It also marked the first year of the New Orleans Saints bounty scandal that would ultimately result in his unprecedented (for a coach, Sean Payton) one-year suspension from the league.
2010 New England Patriots lost in their Divisional playoff game against the Jets, the Patriots could not recover from a 14–3 halftime deficit, and were held to their lowest scoring total in their last 11 weeks. Were the Patriots Jinxed? No they were blessed to win (cheated) as much as they did.
2019 Baltimore Ravens In the playoffs, the Ravens were upset by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round. In my opinion the most overrated 14-2 team of all time. They were too dependent on their running game, not able to rely on the pass.
Too many people look at wins and losses (13-13 in the playoffs of thirteen 14-2 teams that failed to win it all) and quickly assume the worst, without knowing the background to what really happened. So now that I did a brief history lesson, do we see a jinx? No, rather what I would call it a history of destiny, led to by the better teams winning. Because of strength of schedule the best team in any given year does not always have the best record. Also as a full season wears physically and mentally on all NFl teams, the strongest mentally tough teams endure.
By the Kansas City Chiefs losing to the San Diego Chargers in the last game of 2020, I did not have to write a story on “Beating the 15 – 1+ Jinx“… however, if I did:
Those 5 teams went 6-and-5 in the playoffs, with none of them winning the Super Bowl.
The #1 Seed Advantage
Since 1975 the NFL has had a two-seeded playoff system, but until this year only one team received a first round Playoff Bye. Let’s review the 45 years worth of records from the #1 seeds.
AFC #1 Seeds
- 24 AFC #1 seeds – made it to the Super Bowl
- 9 AFC #1 seeds – won Super Bowls
- 14 AFC #1 seeds – lost their first playoff game of that year, 7 lost in the Conference Championship game
- 15 AFC #1 seeds – lost the Super Bowl
- 45 AFC #1 seeds – 66-and-36 win/loss (.647)
NFC #1 Seeds
- 26 NFC #1 seeds made it to the Super Bowl
- 16 NFC #1 seeds won Super Bowls 10 lost
- 9 NFC #1 seeds lost their first playoff game of that year, 10 lost in the Conference Championship game
- 10 NFC #1 seeds lost the Super Bowl
- 45 NFC #1 seeds – 78-and-29 win/loss (.729)
NFL Seeds
- Of the 90 #1 seeds in those 45 years, 56% made it to the Super Bowl, with 53% of the #1 seeds winning the Super Bowl.
- 13 times we have had AFC #1 versus NFC #1 face each other in the Super Bowl
The debate on whether or not it is a good idea to rest starters has not been resolved. Some analysts argue that it is good for the team by enabling the bodies of the players to be fresh, while others state it could make them more rusty. While resting starters may have the advantage of preventing injuries, it may deprive them of various statistics they are trying to accomplish, particularly individual season records.
My question to all the NFL fans, analysts, pundits, and so called media experts is: how is the end of the regular season any different than the final game of the preseason? All NFL teams hold out their starters for that last preseason game, playing only 2nd and 3rd stringers. So… with the first game of the regular season are all 32 teams rusty? No!
Sometimes the defensive units have a slow start, because with the speed of the game, and the limited tackling drills in training camps, it takes some units a few games to catch up to the offenses. However, on the offensive side, most good teams start out the regular season very well. Furthermore, we see multiple teams every year start the regular season with extended winning steaks. Consequently, if rust is not a problem at the beginning of a season, why should the playoffs be any different? I’m a believer in risk versus reward.
Is a Dynasty, Destiny for the Chiefs?
We will know by February 7, 2021. As I have written before, no NFL team has more motivation this year than what the Chiefs do for a multitude of reasons. Rust, rest, risk, rewards, rankings… they’re all just words. This season, the same as any other season, we will see the best team in the league for that given year, standing on the podium, holding the Lombardi Trophy. GO CHIEFS!
Alan Haut — ArrowheadOne
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