It Was Déjà Vu
All Over Again
Frank Leggio
As I watched the Super Bowl last night, I experienced a number of interesting thoughts. Some were about how amazing the game was from a record-setting standpoint and some about how familiar it was watching these two teams. Although neither team is fortunate enough to wear Red and Gold with the Arrowhead logo, it sure looked like a number of the games I watched this season.
Comebacks
The New England Patriots executed an epic comeback. Despite being down more than any team in Super Bowl history at the end of the first half, they were able to mount a Q4 comeback to force overtime and the eventual win. As a matter of fact, the Patriots won the game without leading for even a second.
This reminded me of some of our record setting comebacks during the season. In those victories, our team never gave up. They emitted a sense of purpose and feeling they were always in the game. At one point in the game the Atlanta Falcons had a 99.6% win probability. This reminded me of when the Denver Broncos held a 98.1% win probability over the Chiefs, before we came back and won in overtime.
Strong Defense Then No Defense
Another area that struck me as similar was how the Falcons were forcing turnovers, punts, and scoring on defense, yet fell flat in the second half. I joked with a friend that Andy Reid was consulting on second half strategy. It seemed Atlanta was in bend don’t break mode and conservative play calling. Meanwhile, the Patriots ground away at the lead and gained the momentum.
The Falcon defense went from an aggressive first half to allowing Tom Brady to work his magic up and down the field. In all NE had 37 first downs versus 17 from Atlanta. They controlled the ball for almost 17 more minutes and gained over 200 more yards. Brady completed almost twice as many passes as Matt Ryan attempted.
Does that sound familiar to anyone? I felt like I was watching the Pittsburgh game where our defense couldn’t force a punt and the Steelers were able to grind out a win with 6 field goals. When a Super Bowl team is up by 16 points with a 9:44 to go, the game should be over.
The Series
There was also one particular series that stuck out as reminiscent of KC play calling. The second to last series the Falcons ran was 5:56 to go, up by 8 points and starting from their own 10-yard line.
Play 1 – 1st and 10, from the ATL 10 – Pass short left to Freeman for 39 yards
Play 2 – 1st and 10, from the ATL 49 – Freeman rush right end for 2 yards
Play 3 – 2nd and 8, from the NE 49 – Pass deep right to Jones for 27 yards
Play 4 – 1st and 10, from the NE 22 – Freeman rush left end for -1 yard
Play 5 – 2nd and 11, from the NE 23 – Ryan sacked for -12 yards
Play 6 – 3rd and 23, from the NE 35 – Gained 9 yards, but a penalty for 10
Play 7 – 3rd and 33, from the NE 45 – Incomplete pass short left
Play 8 – Punt leaving 3:38 on the clock
What I found strange was Plays 5-7. They were within FG range, which would have put them up 2 scores. First, Ryan takes a sack for a big yardage loss. I am OK with taking the sack, but he couldn’t give up that many yards. It forced NE to either take a timeout or let the time run. Then taking a penalty, moving them out of FG range. The 7th play being a pass, where — an incomplete, stops the clock again — was another issue.
If plays 5, 6/7 were rushes, the most likely worst case is stopped for no gain or a very short loss. The clock either runs or NE is burning timeouts and they stay within field goal range. Instead, they got away from their run game, which was working and would keep the clock running.
This reminded me of the many times Reid seems to forget he has players like Jamaal Charles, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill.
What’s Next?
I was encouraged by our Chiefs team showing flashes of what New England did in this game. They came together as a team, made big plays when needed, and never gave up. We need to build on that and make it a part of our DNA.
On the flip side, I was pretty concerned that the game plan of playing not to lose isn’t a good one. As soon as we take our foot off the gas, we significantly increase the risk of losing. We ended up losing a couple of games, despite being ahead at the half and were in jeopardy on at least one other I can remember. This doesn’t work. A winning team wins, it doesn’t “not lose.”
If we are to take the next step forward in 2017, the bend but don’t break defense and the calling of plays to not lose both need to change. I am not saying we need to call extremely risky plays, but sticking with an attacking style is what we need.
Until next week, there’s The Rub.
