To the other side of the ball from my last focus, let’s take a look-see at the WR’s and add to that TE’s and RB’s as receivers. These players are the primary targets for Patrick Mahomes in 2021, plus one. We already know we have an elite QB and since Patrick has stated he is working on fundamentals and being more efficient, what I anticipate is more of a 2018 type of year, as far as numbers go.
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As I see it, with this Offensive Line he won’t have to flee the pocket or drop 12 yards to make a pass. He can do a short (3 step) or long (7 step) drop and step up in the pocket to make passes. This won’t take away the RPOs. He will still be able to flee fleet footed from pressure. He won’t need to do this as much. If Patrick does this type of prep work in front his pass protection, the NFL will have a whole new problem presented to each of the defenses that the Chiefs offense faces and he will still be able to do what he has always done.
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Let’s take a look at the receiving end of Mahomes passes.
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Tyreek “King Of The” Hill
Hill is the Ultimate X Receiver (unless he is the Z receiver)
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Everyone and their little brother is going to contest Kansas City having the best #1 deep threat in the game. I don’t like the new convention. Tyreek Hill is the #1 receiver for Reid’s offense no matter where he lines up. He is by all accounts the best “slot” wideout among all receivers.
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Even if I told you Hill was the 3rd best WR in the business, would it make any difference? Someone, an analyst or pundit will, and has found reason to put another receiver up front and make Tyreek less than that other receiver. Any way I look at it, I ask myself, would I want to swap him for WR: A, B, or C? I answer that question with a resounding “NO!” For example, I just stopped typing and did a search for ranking the NFL’s top 32 WR’s. Hill came in ranked third behind #1 Davante Adams and #2 Deandre Hopkins. So what?!
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Since I am familiar with Adams and Rogers… and what was Watkins-to-Hopkins… would I think things are a wash among the three men. No way that anything is going to change the arrangement, though Hopkins no longer is going to ply his trade with Watson (and who knows how soon the Quagmire in Houston is going to come clean). For that matter, Green Bay has it’s own saga and it is still unknown whether or not Aaron Rodgers will play for the Pack this season. Hill had his own soap opera going on as he entered the league, but this offseason he got engaged, so it is somewhat amusing that when the dust clears, we still have a certainty about who will be throwing the ball to Tyreek Hill.
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Adams and Hopkins: they are both high quality wideouts. They both give their respective quarterbacks a total threat to score any time they have the ball. In fact, I would go so far to state that Hopkins is the best all round, any position on the field, receiver in the NFL. I do not rank either Adams or Hopkins in front of Tyreek Hill though. I know as well that Adams was ranked higher than Hopkins or Hill according to PFF. At the same time, I think at any point in a game, Hill exposes any cornerback or safety and leaves them gasping for breath, as if he were shot out of a rocket… but okay.
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Is Hill one of the best WR’s in the biz? Or, let look at another way… would you trade him away for either of the other two? I’d say you will answer NO to that question. If we didn’t have Tyreek Hill, would I be totally pleased if Mahomes top target were Adams or Hopkins? Absolutely not, because we do have Tyreek Hill. Mahomes is good to go!
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If you aren’t satisfied with my stating the Chiefs have the best deep threat in the game, then you must certainly admit that he ranks in the same breath as the other two as ranked by PFF.
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The Best Tight End in the Game
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Just this past week we saw one of the pundit sites rank George Kittle as #1 over Travis Kelce. Now I think that is about as ludicrous as NFL, cough, cough, analyst David Carr rating George in front of Travis in July of 2020, before the season unfolded. There is a lot to be said about George Kittle as a top TE, but hands down, by any standard, via consistency, total yards, TDs and leadership… the best TE in the NFL is Travis Kelce.
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No other Tight End comes close to being able to do what Travis Kelce does, year in and year out, for a 5-year time frame and a likely 6th Year in a row when looking at 2021. Kelce will have another 1,000 yard season.
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To be truthful, I love the guy. He has matured over his time with the Chiefs, and has assumed a leadership mantel among the top players of the Chiefs. Let’s ask the same type of question about Travis Kelce that we asked about Hill. Would I swap Kelce for Kittle? My answer is: ABSOLUTELY NOT! Turn the question in a different direction. If I didn’t have Travis Kelce as our premier TE target for Patrick Mahomes, would I like to have George Kittle? The Answer is: “Uncle You Bet”!
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The Running Back in the Aerial Attack
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We have yet to see just how far Reid and Bieniemy’s offense can go using the RB as a top target for Patrick Mahomes using Clyde Edwards-Helaire. We have seen the success of CEH as a flood receiver, on screens or safety value targets. We even saw CEH used out wide on 2020. It was not a major thrust of the offense in 2020. What we do know is that CEH did not achieve the numbers last year that would have made him a household name in his rookie year, as we fans around the Kingdom would have like to have seen.
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What is Known
We know that the offensive line suffered mightily last season. We know the run game took a huge down turn from week 6 onward. That the offense did not exploit CEH, as they had done with Kareem Hunt (Hunt had 455 receiving yards his rookie year), was perhaps a head-scratcher. Still, all the signs were present that Clyde would fit an enhanced role in 2021 just from his work in 2020.
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It’s already been an observation that CEH’s use will be expanded and I think it’s a fair proposition: 1,200 yards rushing and up to 450-500 yards receiving. I anticipate, he will be a complete weapon for Mahomes and add a further dimension to the tools that can be exploited by the future GOAT: Patrick Mahomes.
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The #2 WR, by default: is Mecole Hardman. He was the #2 pick in 2019 — #56 overall — likely due to off-field legal worries of Tyreek Hill. It is time for Hardman to step up. Behind him the steady contributors. Demarcus Robinson and Byron Pringle have made big plays in the past.
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I anticipate 2021 success and I have hopes for each player, plus newcomers. Let’s also focus on Antonio Callaway and see what he can bring to the table. Here’s a Callaway catch in 2018 after the Browns drafted him in the 4th round — 105th pick overall — and he shows off his 4.41 speed on a 47 yard TD catch.
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In 2019, he was suspended for four games for violating the substance abuse policy, then was suspended agin for showing up late to team meetings and was finally released by the Browns. He played for the Tampa Bay Vipers but injured his leg but the XFL was then dead in the water. He cought on with the Dolphins and served out his remaining suspensions, had an on again off again relationship with their Practice Squad and was released jsut before Christmas in 2020. The Chiefs signed him to a reserve/futures contract and we can only hope he’s matured and ready to move on from his past troubles. Here’s what he did while playing for the Florida Gators.
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Could Callaway be the answer for Sammy Watkins? Or Hardman? That has yet to be seen.
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Still? In my view, the question is… is Hardman a “Bust?” Hardman appears a fixed #2 for now. The Chiefs have other WRs and it remains to be seen who is going to step up and break out and who knows how this will work out after Hill and Hardman. It remains a roster that is deep at WR, but all need to blossom to a full-fledged contributor, and none has as yet. I think the Chiefs will use Hardman less on Special Teams and focus on getting him the targets as the #2 WR.
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Break In Prospect: Cornell Powell
One other WR that I want to focus on is Cornell Powell. Powell should find himself in the mix more and more often as the season progresses. How I see Powell fitting to the Chiefs offense is as the “good ole’ reliable” possession receiver. From watching his college tape, I envision Powell enlarging the aerial attack by fulfilling a target role, from underneath to intermediate ranges, and doing so with aplomb. It is sort of the missing ingredient that Patrick needs and I think Powell will showboat receptions in that type of presentation.
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I am not the only one who thinks that Cornell Powell has that “something.” What I saw of his last season in NCAA play was a WR whose game “Clicked On.” It was explosive and sometimes electric and that is the reason Brett Veach went out and selected Powell in the NFL 2021 draft. Powell was the Chiefs rookie featured by the NFLPA Rookie Premiere Class.
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Powell likely won’t get many snaps and targets early in the season, but I expect that in the last 3rd of the season we’ll see him deployed far more frequently. As Laddie and I discussed a few days ago, Powell should enlighten us as long as he doesn’t have “drops” and as he gains Patrick Mahomes confidence. What I envision for Powell becomes a future go-to WR that Patrick Mahomes exploits to heighten the aerial game and doing so in 2021… not waiting until 2022.
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Break In Talent: Noah Gray
Noah Gray is the option that I had not considered when deliberating if there was a TE who Brett Veach and Co. might view as a draft pick. It surprised me that they selected a TE at all. Looking at Gray, I see him as a versatile 2nd TE in the passing game because of his great hands. He can line up tight or wide or even as an H-back. The Chiefs do have Blake Bell and Nick Keizer for example, but as a receiving TE, I think Gray will surpass both and see some significant opportunity by the end of 2021.
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I have certainty now that there was a specific reason for the Chiefs bringing Gray aboard and while I was writing the finishing touches, I noted that Charles Goldman of ChiefsWire apparently had focus on Gray, comparing him and the potential to what Evan Engram brings to the table.
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We will have to wait and see what he is able to bring to the Chiefs offense as the season progresses. No matter how it unfolds for both Powell and Gray, I see both men as finding a way to contribute, but both must master Reid’s offensive play book on the fly. Maybe this is the time you say, “If Wishes Were Horses, Beggars would ride.”
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Final thoughts
I have not dealt with the #2 or Z or Y receiver potential nor the depth at TE, aside from a forecast of Noah Gray. I left off consideration for RB’s #2 and #3 RBs, and the Chiefs will also have a Fullback. Gone is fan Favorite, the “Sausage”, Anthony Sherman. Brett Veach signed a basic contributor for the role, Mike Burton, formerly of the Saints. The FB role is something that has gone amiss for most of the NFL. We must wait and see how often Reid and Bieniemy look for Burton to be on the field with this offense. He certainly can aid Dave Toub’s Special Teams.
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What do you think?
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David Bell — ArrowheadOne
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