David Bell
Anticipation is always part of awaiting the next game. Sunday is no different as the Chiefs face the Las Vegas Raiders for the second meeting of the 2021 season. So, once again it has been Raiders Week and two days ago, Red Friday.
I mentioned earlier this week that the Raiders should not be assumed to be an easy loser in a game that has historical reference. At the same time, I cannot see the Chiefs losing the game. The question that I think the Raiders have of themselves is to ask: “Can we score at least 3 TD’s in this game?” If they have that and a couple of field goals they would be very competitive for the contest. At the same time, I want to seen the Chiefs score at least twice with TD’s to put the Raiders in a “must pass” one-dimensional mode. If that happens, I am confident the Chiefs will score 30+ and the Raiders will fade from the 2021 picture.
The Defense (Flight of the Phoenix) has Arisen
On the way to a dismal 3-4 record, the Chiefs defense allowed 29 PPG. Even when losing in that streak, In the first 3 games, the offense scored an average of 29+ PPG and lost 2 of the first three games. Next up was the Eagles and the Chiefs scored 42 but promptly lost to the Bills only scoring 20 points preceded by a win against the WFT in which they won scoring 31 points. The Big setback was against the Titans. The Chiefs managed only 3 points. But the game against the WFT was an indicator: It began a series of Games where the Chiefs held the opponents to 17 points or under. Even in the Titan’s loss, the defense held the Tennessee outfit to 27 points, only 7 over my game magic number of 20.
In the next (last) 5 matchups, the Chiefs Defense was superb: They held 3 opponents to 9 points or less per game. Willie Gay commented in a presser this past week that the Defense was playing football as a complete unit. I agree. It was a great streak of games for the defense. The only player ruled out at this time is CB Chris Lammons. We might see a CB promoted for the game from the PS: Dicaprio Bootle, Devon Key, and Josh Jackson are candidates. I am convinced we will see Deandre Baker in the CB mix for this game. Maybe even 25-to-30 snaps. Side note: Lucas Niang practiced all week but he was categorized as: Limited. I have one more thought that I think the Chiefs should entertain: Get Zayne Anderson(S) some NFL game time exposure. He is the type of player that could eventually fit the Daniel Sorensen hybrid type safety role.
The Right Things Have Fallen into Place For the Defense
In the process of bringing the defense to a top performing unit, several things have happened. I think we can say that Spags has new options and the players have bought into their job within the “It takes All of Us” Spagnuolo and Co. theme. It is working.
- DC Steve Spagnuolo has all the pieces in place to do good work
- Frank Clark is healthy and has been able to set aside non-football life problems
- Brett Veach signed Melvin Ingram, allowing Spagnuolo to bring Chris Jones back to the Interior
- DL Jarran Reed has emerged in the process
- LB Nick Bolton is a tackling machine and his viability in my eyes is already proven
- LBWillie Gay has emerged as the off Ball starter at LB;
- Secondary is a Phoenix arisen:
- The Outside CB’s have been strong and shutting down receivers (Ward’s play has been top drawer and Sneed has shown why he is dominant)
- Rashad Fenton emerged into the NFL picture, ranking atop all CB defenders at the half-way mark (I am pretty sure he will play Sunday)
- Last up, the centerfield is covered well by Juan Thornhill and that allows Tyrann Mathieu to seek play-making all over the field
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Do I expect the defense to suffer a setback against Carr and Company?
One word answer: NO!
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What the Raiders are Facing?
The Raiders have suffered 3 losses in the past 5 games, including a huge upset when they lost to the WFT last week. It is difficult for me to consider that the Raiders will be able to execute a road upset against Kansas City. I am not talking down the Washington team. My brother and I watched that game with Great interest last week. My brother Steve lives in DC and did commute down town to his place of employment until he retired last year. He may not be the football nutcase that I am, but he does root for Washington so that win resulted in a celebratory evening during my recent visit.
The Raiders are also dealing with significant injuries to key players:
PFT is reporting that Denzel Perryman will be OUT of his contest.
KenyanDrake will miss the rest of the season with a broken ankle, per @RapSheet
The #Raiders placed LB Nick Kwiatkoski on Injured Reserve.
That is a list of significant and crucial players who will not take the field for Las Vegas, which for them is occurring in a week when they must win to salvage any hope of post-season play. It’s been my experience that a road team with 5 major contributors unable to take the field –> foretells a [Raiders] loss. No one needs a gypsy, or magic ball, to forecast a Chiefs victory. This should extend the K.C. winning streak to six games.
Looking Ahead: My Mini Prediction Chart
I don’t want the Chiefs to look beyond this game… but I can. What I see is that the Chiefs will earn this victory, get vengeance the next week (Thursday Night) versus the Chargers and come into the Steelers game on a roll, then win that game as well. This should carry the club to two road games to finish the season.
I am going to wait on predicting on those two games. I do believe that the Chiefs get wins at home versus the Raiders, but face a top quality opponent on the road versus the LAC. The Chiefs should win handily at home versus the Steelers setting up the close of the season, their final run to he playoffs.
My biggest worry? The Chiefs Inconsistent Offense
We have seen the offense look great for a possession or two in recent games but they have somehow shot themselves in the big toe, game after game. This past week, Patrick Mahomes took ownership of the problems and inability to sustain drives in the past few games. I’d agree. My eye test tells me that his passes lack the accuracy that he has consistently shown since taking on the starting role. At the same time, receiver drops have plagued the team and some of those at least hit the receiver in the hands only to deflect off usually capable hands into the arms of a defender, thus turning passes into into Interceptions. We must await these errors getting resolved and the offense cranking and firing on all cylinders to close the season and roll into the playoffs with momentum. I think it quite possible that the Chiefs win out the regular season and take over the Bye for the AFC. Winning out will likely be necessary to achieve that lofty goal. On the other hand, momentum and being on a role, whether the bye is achieved or not, is just as crucial to get to the Super Bowl.
Raiders Week Pundits and Oddsmakers
For the Raiders game the stats trendlines run this way:
Betting Trends
- The Raiders are 5-1 ATS as away underdogs in their last 6 games
- The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games
- The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS against the Raiders at home in their last 5 games
- The Chiefs are 2-8 ATS as home favorites in their last 10 games
- The Chiefs are 2-9 ATS at home in their last 11 games
- The Over is 1-6 in Chiefs games in their last 7 games
NFL.com Expert Picks
The Betting Line Saturday Morning
I am not going to tell you that the game will be a sure victory. The Raiders could have a miracle game and the Chiefs could fall flat on their collective noses. At the same time, I am telling you the Chiefs win this game. Go Chiefs – It’s Raiders week!
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David Bell – Arrowheadone
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