We all have questioned the value of an Orlando Brown, Jr. Extended Contract. We can all debate until the cows come up along the creek but Orlando Brown, Jr. will get a 5 year contract. It will be, most likely, more than you think it is worth. We have had an extensive time seeing the results of Brett Veach’s method to know that he has learned his lesson related to long term contracts for Older Players. That is found in Veach not retaining Tyrann Mathieu, Anthony Hitchens, and Mel Ingram. I firmly believe he has learned a hard lesson with Frank Clark as well. Veach was able to retain Clark for about half of what his original payout would have been. Had Clark not agreed, he would have been released at that point. I am certain that this would have been true as well.
I remarked that this is my last word. But that relates to Orlando. I have a final last word(for the 2023 draft)!
Where does the value of Orlando Brown lie?
That appears to be a debate that remains an ongoing thread for some. I am going to point out a few things that address that concern.
- Brown’s numbers were improved comparing the first half of his first season as the LOT, to the second half.
- This off-season, Brown has worked to reduce his poundage and has been working on his feet.
- Comparing Brown’s 2021 season to Eric Fisher’s 2017, Brown’s marks are a better value.
- Compare age(Youth) of Orlando Brown to Eric Fisher or Mitch Schwartz. Youth is an advantage.
- Starting his 4th season in the NFL, Brown has time on his side to resolve weaknesses and work on fundamentals.
- Brown, like both Fisher and Schwartz have had to deal with a very mobile QB who took deep drops frequently, ruining the pass blocking angle for OT’s in the process. This was a complete shift of QB play as Brown learned the ropes in 2021.
- I anticipate that Brown’s tendered Contract will be somewhere in the range of $110-115M.
- Of note, yes I have been a proponent of signing Brown to a long term contract
- Yes, I also was irritated with Brown’s verbalization last week(I used terms like prima donna, etc)
The above estimate could range higher or perhaps lower, but use the Figure of $110M has the base estimate. Then go back and look at where Fisher’s salary was when he was released. The market has escalated, so has inflation. It is my view that retaining Brown is necessary. It is also my view that the Chiefs were determined to make Brown the starting LOT for the foreseeable future when they used draft picks to bring him to the Kingdom. Nothing about that commitment has changed. Brett Veach has verbalized that he was committed to getting a long-term contract completed.
Going Back Over Old Ground
The 2021 season opened and Orlando Brown’s weakness was exposed quickly with the outside speed rush. Keep that in perspective though because QB Patrick Mahomes was using a lot of very deep drops. This allowed edge rushers to flatten their path to the QB. The OT(either side) had to contend with that speed rush. The angle of attack could no longer be a default 45 degree angle. That hurt in both Niang’s and Brown’s cases as neither are fleet-footed OTs. As the season progressed, Brown made an adjustment sot he second half of the season, his performance was better. Too, Patrick Mahomes worked on refraining for a 10 year drop and worked to step up in the pocket. That is another reason for Brown’s better play in the second half of 2021. I am using statistics from Seth Keysor below. It shows us what he did in 2021 and then Seth compared those results to those of Eric Fisher in 2017. Brown is an advantageous lineman when blocking for the run.
By the Numbers(8 Games Measured)
Game PBW, PBL
Browns —– PBW 16, PBL 5
Ravens —– PBW 13, PBL 2
Titans —— PBW 17, PBL 5
Packers —– PBW 14, PBL 3
Cowboys — PBW 13, PBL 5
Bills ——– PBW 22, PBL 5
Bengals —- PBW 18, PBL 4
Ttl: 129 33 Pass Block Wins v Pass Block Losses (Stats provided by Chiefsinthenorth)
Statistics do not tell the whole story. As you can see from the above, Brown wins far more than he loses in pass protection. Where the success lay over all? Defenders could not win doing a bull rush or power rush. Nor could they win by using an inside move. This means that because of Brown’s massive size and his arm length, he essentially forced the defender into a a single method of trying to get to the QB–Out and Around–the Speed Rush. This is where Mahomes deep drops made things worse and it also meant that Brown, who is not fleet of foot was put in the worse possible situation to protect Mahomes. Brown did adopt a specific method during the season to get deeper to push the edge rusher on around. But this hop and slide often put Brown in a situation where his feet weren’t balanced. [At a lighter weight and working on footwork in the off-season, tells me that Brown may weigh in 30 pounds lighter and more able to move in a quicker fashion. If his drills address his footwork and that improves, it would allevate much of the weakness that Brown experienced with the Edge Rusher going outside with speed.
I did not worry about Run Blocking. If Brown has a weakness, it is his lateral quickness. He is able to bull straight forward and move into the second level. He is massively strong with long arms and strong hands. He can pull and redirect blocks. the Run Blocking work will be better oriented if his footwork improves [again, I am focusing on reports of his off-season work].
Turning the Page(refer back to Keysor’s analysis)
Seth goes with a comparison to Eric Fisher. “If we’re going to be comparing Brown to Eric Fisher, it makes sense to link to (the review Seth did on Fisher in 2017, one of Fisher’s better years. Fisher’s win percentage was almost identical to Brown’s, but his loss percentage was 9.4% to Brown’s 7.5%. Take from that what you will, but it’s at least worth noting that in a system that was more controlled (Alex Smith’s final year) and one that he’d been in for 5 years, Fisher performed at a relatively similar level to Brown in terms of win/loss percentage, with Brown being superior in loss percentage. What I found relevant about Brown was the fact that he managed to go all 8 games without a loss percentage of over 10% (which is where I draw the line towards what is needed from a starter), despite facing multiple high-quality pass rushers. His performances against Garrett and Hendrickson in particular caught my eye in terms of percentage of snaps he was able to render them non-factors (though they each got him once on a sack). That’s positive news for Brown in terms of consistency, something that Fisher struggled with against top-tier opponents.”
The downside note by Seth entailed Sacks and pressures. He states: “A second thing I noted was that despite Brown’s low loss percentage, his pressure/hit/sack stat is not in a place I want it to be. He gave up 5 sacks in 8 games (with 2 sacks against the Titans being a big part of that), and his hit/pressure numbers are a bit higher than I’d like as well. Brown’s consistency at tackle and his improvement in loss percentage as the year progressed (outside his Week 2 performance, which I partly chalk up to good matchups for him) are encouraging.”
If I were to sum up Brown’s greatest strength as a player, it’s his ability to turn every single pass rusher he faces into essentially the same guy.” [The pass rush has got to choose to try to get to the QB with the outside speed rush in other words]
Coaching, lighter playing weight and better footwork will aid Brown in his second season with the Chief. Mahomes using normal drop depth will aid both OTs. Mahomes under center and using play-action passes will aid both OTs. Having the full compliment of linemen from 2021, Wiley or Niang, will see improved pass protection and run blocking success with fewer pressures on Patrick Mahomes.
Final Course?
No, Orlando Brown does not deserve top money. There are many OTs in the game that should rank higher than Brown. Phillip Maxwell provided his thoughts on players that rank higher than Brown in his article “A Fistful of Dollars. Review that article, here: https://arrowheadone.com/a-fistful-of-dollars-by-phillip-maxwell/
Similarly, in an RGR Session with Ryan Tracy and Dan Harms, they took a look at where Brown ranks early in the session: You can see that RGR video and review the first 10 minutes. I think Dan Harms gives Brown a top 5 ceiling but he has to prove it. See that session, here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QPpp8P6qI3c
For me? Get Browns extended contract completed and lock him in for 5 years. That is what I see happening and it is what Seth Keysor believed was the right course of action as well. Ryan Tracy gave an idea of 96M-5yr deal recently. It behooves the Chiefs to get a long term contract done because it would yield more cap space which could invested in a solid veteran pass rush defensive lineman, or maybe even two. Brown will play for the Chiefs in 2022 at the worst, on the tag. It may well be that the total amount goes deeper than my estimate. For example, it could go to $115-120M. Think about it! If they Tag Brown it’s going to cost $16.7M. Think about averaging this over 5 years with increases each year along with accounting for inflation. That’s where Brown and his agent probably have as their base level negotiation. Veach probably sees it more in the $105-110M range. Regardless, this merely speculation. We may not see the resulting deal as the bargain we desire. If it ends up this much money, we know Veach will figure an “out” in the new contract.
Signing Brown to a Five-Year Contract is the right value for a young capable, OT whose ceiling is not yet reached.
Finally, My Last Word
If the Brown contract doesn’t come to proper fruition? That is a problem. I suppose you play him on the tag. If he doesn’t sign that contract, he sits for 2022. If that happens Brett Veach? Take a hard look at how you can draft 6’8″-305 LOT Blake Freeland out of BYU. Tag Brown for 2 years and go with Freeland! That’s my “Way Early 2023 mark my words.”
David Bell – ArrowheadOne