Chiefs at Bucs, Sunday Night: OPEN THREAD
Laddie Morse
Before the season begins, you look over the schedule and circle certain games. This is one of those games. Maybe that’s why the Kansas City Chiefs didn’t win in Indianapolis last weekend and that truly ended up being a “trap-games” after all. That’s the very definition of a trap game isn’t it… “a game played against an opponent generally deemed to be easy to defeat.” In any event, here we are, waiting all day long… once again. I guess it’s hard to complain about the Chiefs being selected to play their third game in 4 week on Prime Time TV, because if they weren’t a good team, this wouldn’t even be possible. Right? I guess… but it’s still a bit of a frustration. By the way, this game between the Bucs and the Chiefs is the first time they’ve met since the Super Bowl of February 2021.
Bottom Line First
My general take on this game is — the Bucs great defense vs the Chiefs wanna-be great offense — or the Chiefs excellent defense vs the Bucs wish-we-were-good offense — so which one is going to assert themselves more? The Bucs offense right now is a mess. Tom Brady is finally looking old. While the Chiefs currently rank 9th in total passing yards, the Bucs are ranked 22nd in the NFL their, by NFL.com. Mahomes is 7th in Completion percentage while Brady is 22nd. Mahomes has thrown 8 TDs this year while Brady has thrown 3. Here’s a breakdown of the two teams so far this year from NFL.com:
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When your team is better in every category, you have to think they’re going to win, and I do.
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RB Leonard Fournette
There’s a story out there that says RB Leonard Fournette, who’s currently 5th in the NFL in rushing, wants to limit his snaps to help prolong his own career… and… he (as well as his coaches) thinks this may be the team (the Chiefs) to do that against:
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“I told them earlier, ‘Listen, we’re going to have to start sharing the snaps,’ because I know those guys [his back-up RBs] practice all week or whatever the case may be. I know they want to get their reps in but as my job, I’m trying to prolong my career and help them, get them some snaps and things like that. Their time is going to come, for sure.”
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For Tampa, or K.C., to Win
First, let’s consider that this game will be played in Tampa Bay. SI.com reports that:
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“After monitoring the impact of Hurricane Ian in Tampa,
the franchise made the decision to keep the game at
its normal time and location.”
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After days of speculation that the game might be played in Minneapolis the Tampa Bay Buccaneers decided it was best to play the game in Tampa Bay. Here’s what their own website said about the issue:
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“We have informed the NFL, after consulting with local and state agencies, that we are ready to play Sunday night’s game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Raymond James Stadium as originally scheduled.”
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Although that’s not a decision I agree with, that’s what we’re looking at for Sunday evening. While this week’s storm was sending damaging winds to the Gulf Coast and all across Florida, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were off practicing in Miami at the Dolphins facilities. For the Bucs to win this game, they look like they’ll have to run the ball down the Chiefs throats. For K.C. to win, it looks like they’ll just have to be the offense they’ve been all year. That’s the main reason…
I’m picking the Chiefs to win going away: 31 to 17.
I’m also basing my opinion that K.C. will win this game upon the “Hurry Rate” each team’s defense has created so far this season. The Chiefs rank #3 with a 16.1% Hurry Rate and the Bucs defense ranks 18th in the NFL with a 9.3% Hurry Rate. Give Patrick Mahomes time to do his thing… and you’re sunk. The Chiefs are also ranked 2nd in the NFL in “Pressure Rate” at 35.8%. Pressure Rate is determined by = hurries + knockdowns + all sacks (half and full for players) per drop-back.
Mahomes: Winning v Magic
1:19
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Butker Ruled Out
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Getting the Crew Cut
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Weather Issues
Up until Thursday, we didn’t know if this game would be played in Tampa Bay or in Minneapolis. Since Raymond James Stadium, home of the Buccaneers, is an open air stadium, here’s the weather report.
While the above weather report may explain the conditions for Sunday evening in the surrounding areas of Raymond James Stadium, it does not take into account all the weather problems the residents of Tampa Bay have experienced in the last week. The damage in that area was significant and this is including mandatory evacuation requests by local officials for all countries in the area. Below please find a video called: “Hurricane Ian drains water across Tampa Bay“
“Hurricane Ian has caused water to drain across Tampa Bay, it comes as the storm intensified into an “extremely dangerous” Category 4 hurricane on Wednesday. It has left thousands without power as the Hurricane makes landfall with a maximum sustained wind speed of 250 km/h.“
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The picture by NPR above also listed this notice along with that photo:
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“IMPORTANT NOTE: The water WILL come back: the National Weather Service office in Tampa said via Twitter, as it urged people not to walk out to explore areas where water has receded.”
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As you might expect, that didn’t stop some people from exploring the areas where the water had been.
Attendance… and the Game
It’s hard to talk about football, a game, when such a disaster like Hurricane Ian has ravaged our country, and more importantly, our citizens. Hall of Fame QB, Kurt Warner joined Matt McMullen for a look at this game. Before watching that, consider that he also said:
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“You have to be ready to play off schedule.”
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Chiefs Scoring Questions
In the first three weeks, K.C. has scored a total of 88 points: 44, 27, and 17 to average 29.3 per game. In an article sent to me by David Bell by ProFootballNetwork.com, called: “Why aren’t NFL offenses scoring in 2022?” they have said:
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“The high-scoring offenses of just two years ago – featuring the most points scored per game in NFL history – have seemingly disappeared. That season, 13.6 percent of games featured at least one team scoring 40 points – a rate that has been cut in half this year through three weeks.”
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Apparently, some have thought that rushing efficiency would go up as a result of teams going all out to defend against the pass, but that hasn’t happened. For the Chiefs, they need to be able to make efficient use of their running game, as well as their passing game, and while I’m not sure Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be that guy moving forward (meaning, in seasons to come), what clearly needs to happen is for the OL and the RBs to get in sync.
When I was watching a Priest Holmes clip recently, I noticed that he ran with such intelligence that I found myself wishing the Chiefs could find someone like him. However, there is no other Priest Holmes and there may never be another OL like the one he ran behind. When you whittle it down to the nitty-gritty, it means the RBs need to hit the holes the moment those holes are open. There are way too many times the hole is opened — by this incredible group of offensive linemen — only to have it close up by the time the RB hits that gap.
As far as pass protecting is concerned, that should come along as the year progresses. So, I’m far less worried about that than I am the running game. It’s the run blocking that’s had me concerned for a couple of years running now (no pun intended).
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Bulletin Board Matters
Shaquil Barrett, a LB for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, had some things to say this week about the Chiefs current offensive line. It was in February of last year, 2021, that the Chiefs lost to the Bucs 31-to-9 and everyone mostly agreed it was due to the Chiefs passively-poor OL. So, last offseason, GM Brett Veach rebuilt their OL and brought in Orlando Brown Jr., Joe Thuney, then drafted Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith, while getting Lucas Niang back from a Covid designation, who was eventually replaced by Andrew Wylie. The same OL exists this season but Barrett thinks he and his buddies can have, in his words, “a coming out party” against this years group, and also, that they aren’t any better than the OL from February of 2021:
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“I really don’t think it’s too much of a difference. I think we have a lot of favorable match-ups. I think we really have an opportunity to dominate the game. I think we’ve got an opportunity to really impose our will as pass-rushers, as edge rushers in this game. We can really have like a coming out party.”
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When asked about the bulletin board material comments from Barrett, the Chiefs OC, Creed Humphrey, said: “I really don’t pay any attention to that kind of stuff.“ Creed also said none of his OL teammates pays any attention to that kind of bulletin board material either.
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Yeah. Right.
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Predictions:
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Mine: Chiefs 31. Bucs 17. Go Chiefs!
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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