David Bell
I was at the 2017 game which the Kansas City Chiefs lost to the Tennessee Titans on a walk-off FG –> Chiefs 20, Titans 21. A dismal end to an extremely cold game that opened with the kick-off at zero degrees F. Of late, the Chiefs are trailing the Titans in wins over the past few seasons, including a Mahomes loss in 2021. I am leaning towards, betting on, the Andy Reid prep for a game coming off of a bye.
Make sense of this, the Chiefs have lost 4 of the last 5 games to the Titans. The Titans appear to have the Chiefs number. Here is a view of the past 5 games from the past 6 years vs Tennessee, including wins and losses:
.
That really looks sad when you think about it. Mahomes won in 2020 but lost in 2018, 19, and 21. Mike Vrabel appears to have Reid’s number if you will. Truthfully, this match-up is a scary proposition based on the past performance since 2016. Still, I have predicted that Andy Reid’s record coming off of a bye or a mini-bye will stand the Chiefs in good stead. Reid is 20-3 in those circumstances. I’d bet money on the outcome of Sunday Night Football this week. Overall the Series between the two teams is Chief’s 30 wins over the Titan’s 25.
As long as Willie Gay and Nick Bolton get shots at Derek Henry, I cannot believe that the ground game will result in positive results for the Nashville team. Further, the Titans have Ryan Tannehill, who is banged up(Ankle), and it may be that the Chiefs face
In his presser, when asked about the loss in 2021, Reid said, “yeah, they got after us and won the game.” When asked if he had special plans for the game, Reid nonchalantly passed the question. You can bet that Reid has a plan. I know that Patrick Mahomes has also verbalized his distress over the loss in 2021. I suspect you will see Patrick Mahomes on the top of his game, even if he must use his “escape artist” skills because the Titans have a tough Defensive Front that will bring physicality to the Chief’s offensive line.
Things You Will See From the Titans
• The Titans will not turn the page from RB Derek Henry. They will try to use his power and size to their advantage.Both Titan QBs are mobile. Tannehill may be ruled out for Sunday, in which case 3rd-round draft pick QB Malik Willis will get the nod. He is dangerous with his feet.
• OC Todd Downing, when questioned in a presser after the Wednesday practice, left the curtain closed on Tannehill, whose status is questionable for Sunday. I suspect Ryan wants to go, but he did not practice Friday. Like last week it will be a game-day decision. I think Willis gets the start at this point.
• The Titan Defense is a strong unit, and the front line is very physical. They will try to dominate the LoS versus the Chief’s front five.
• If The Chiefs get a 2-score lead of any sort, it puts all the pressure on the aerial attack to succeed. whichever QB starts the game will try to pick on the Chiefs rookies.
• If Willis starts, his inexperience will be a factor. He had 55 yards and a pick in the Titan win last week.
.
From the Chiefs Framework
The Chiefs will enter the game as the heavy favorite. Adjustments will have been made as I highlight in my list below. My image for this is Isiah Pacheco carrying a load against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!
.
• Punt Return Duty will move to Kadarius Toney and Mecole Hardman. Skyy Moore will be in the mix. Dave Toub didn’t reveal anything more in his Thursday Presser except to say: ““You’ve got to remember, (Skyy Moore) didn’t do it in college. We’re trying to create him. We’re not giving up on him because he’s got talent. From Watching practice, I think Toney will emerge on Sunday. McDuffie and Hardman will be in the mix as well. “Take Care of the Football Guys”!
• Andy Reid said they would get Toney in on the offense as well according to Charles Goldman, of Chiefswire.
• Isiah Pacheco has show significant improvement and better vision in finding openings created by the OL — he is showing patience before he takes his first step. I expect to see Pacheco get more snaps versus the Titans. He is a violent runner and is on the cusp of breaking out a big game.
• Peter Schrager of Good Morning Football’s man-crush is Isiah Pacheco. Pete observed that this game between the two clubs was the game of the week between two teams with winning records. He recently said this about Isiah: ““Do I love Isiah Pacheco! Look at him carrying dudes. Isiah Pacheco, every single time he touches the ball, he’s running angry. Look at this guy, he lowers the shoulder. I get so fired up for Pacheco.” I feel the same about our rookie RB!.
• Though Andy Reid discussed the playbook learning curve for Toney, I expect to see Toney in the mix as a receiver on Sunday. I hope they include some snaps for him tht focus on his strengths and get him off to a start as a receiver option. The Chiefs safeties will figure heavily into hard-hitting ground game defense. This is a week that Bryan Cook’s skillset can shine.
• Trent McDuffie is back outside and will match up with L’Jarius Sneed for the cornerback coverage. Josh Williams and Jaylen Watson both have “length” as an advantage. The Chiefs traded away Rashad Fenton so CB Coach Dave Merritt and DC Steve Spagnulo are all-in on the young secondary.
• About Kadarius Toney – Travis Kelce is a huge supporter of Kadarius Toney. He said: “Kadarius Toney [is] an absolute beast with the ball in his hands”. Really. I can’t wait to see Toney in action. Andy Reid said they’d try to get him out there with the offense in the game against the Titans.
• Patrick Mahomes will get 300+passing yards and 4 TDs. He will not be denied vs. the Titans.
• Linebacker Nick Bolton will use his reads and tenacity to hound Derek Henry. Gay will use his off-ball speed to help close the ground game down and cover backs out of the backfield.
• In aerial defense, the Titans will try to go with man-press coverage. the purpose is to take away Travis Kelce – IT WON’T WORK. If the Titans double up on Kelce, the Chiefs WR will have a feidl day against man coverage. And Kelce will still have a good game.
.
Do I Have Worries?
Yes, indeed I do. LOT Orlando Brown is my largest worry. Has he completely healed up his nagging knee injury???
.
Orlando Brown Jr. – has played poorly as demonstrated by the following negatives:
• According to PFF, Brown, our renowned LOT, is currently ranked as the 49th “best(?)” OT overall.
• He has surrender 24 QB Pressures
• 4 QB Hits and he’s given up a sack.
That’s not a good statistical situation for Brown, nor for Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes was a factor in getting Brown into training camp after his mini-holdout. As it turned out he accepted far less money than what was originally tendered (offered).
.
I know those two spend time together and have developed a friendship. Let’s hope that Brown’s play improves as we proceed onward from the Bye. Whatever the nagging injury entailed truly was, I have never seen any information other than just as much as I reveal above. It’s my biggest worry, even more than Andrew Wylie at ROT, who is next on my list of worries.
ROT Andrew Wylie – while I am more troubled by Brown, Andrew Wylie has struggled in at least three games thus far. Our Tackles do well when Reid gets the ground game going. Look for that playbook usage Sunday (Boy, I am glad Lucas Niang is headed back and is practicing this week). I am not extremely down on Andrew. He is a solid player — but he is the 6th Offensive lineman. He signed another 1-year contract to return to the Chiefs and it’s a good thing that happened.
Geron Christian & Darian Kinnard – at the same time, Wylie had a horrible first quarter against the Bills, but having him in house is a blessing at this point. Until things improve, I’d have to say Geron Christian is worth keeping around. Christian, a veteran obtained from Houston, looked to have a shot at getting more snaps prior to the season beginning, but it hasn’t worked out that way. Rookie OT Darian Kinnard out of Kentucky showed promise in the preseason, but had weaknesses that prevented him from ascending to starter status.
Marquez Valdez-Scantling – last week, MVS had 111 yards on 3 receptions. Yes, I know they are using him as the over the top threat, but I want to see more from him, than just 3 catches. Maybe my expectations are too lofty. I know the focus for Patrick Mahomes is to stay with the game from the pocket. Still, I want to see MVS get more targets that he can field.
Skyy Moore – Once again I am calling on OC Eric Bieniemy and HC Andy Reid to use Moore in the shorter routes of the route-tree. He has the ability to win in man-up situations. He has great hands, which are extremely large. Moore has a good catch radius and he is physical receiver in traffic and with those hands he will do well competing for contested passes. Moore also has top-tier type speed which will be a boon to Mahomes if Reid and Bieniemy use him. Just do it Coach(es)!
Punt Return Turnovers – Moore needs to put the punt return foibles behind him and get involved in the offense. Kadarius Toney appears to be a great fit for fielding punts (from watching video of practice sessions). Toney’s avenue to get on the field asap will involve Punt Returns. Mecole Hardman and Trent McDuffie also are in the punt return mix. Skyy Moore has camp and pre-season games under his belt. At week 9, he should have digested the playbook. So please use him!
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – despite adding to the offense as a receiver out of the backfield, my concern is that The Glide isn’t running the ball well between tackles. It’s for this reason that I tout the pairing of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon. No matter what happens in any game, the Chiefs need to establish success in running the football and these two players step up and ring the bell. If the ground game goes well in the mix of plays, Mahomes will have a very successful day with the aerial game as well.
What, Me Worry?
I Am Not Worried about Hardman or JuJu Smith-Schuster – JuJu has come into his own as a “Chief” and his rapport with QB Patrick Mahomes is growing every week.
The more we see him, the more we see what JuJu brings to the table?
Hardman has also contributed mightily, especially with the Jet Sweep type running plays and crossing routes. Hardman had 3 scores (Hat Trick) vs. the 49ers on such plays in a single game. Here is a video of the third (go to 20 seconds in to see Hardman score his 3rd TD of hte Game):
Andy? Eric? Get him involved with crossing routes. His speed gets him open and when he kicks in full-speed, he is dangerous to score from any position on the field. See it in action, here:
.
On the Offensive side of the Ball – Take care of it – No turnovers.
• On Defense? Stop the run and contain the QB.
• Travis Kelce and JuJu Smith-Schuster – deal the cards and play at the top level of your game.
• OL – Get physical with a physical Defensive front.
• Patrick Mahomes – no happy feet – do your pocket QB deal and take what you are given. The Game opens up from there.
• On defense? Spags needs to get pressure on the QB.
.
The Chiefs are the superior football team. Put up two scores and play defense. Turn Patrick Mahomes loose on the Titans secondary. Travis Kelce’s presser on Friday tells me that the Chiefs are passionate about this game. He is dead serious. View his 7:42 minute video here:
.
Final? Chiefs 34, Titans 17
.
David Bell — ArrowheadOne
.