Laddie Morse
Even though it’s been a tough start to the season for the Kansas City Chiefs, I don’t think anyone thought it would come down to a mid-Novermber game to decode the AFC West Crown. However, a victory for the good guys may be more difficult than first thought. For the Los Angeles Chargers the game is a seasonal turnaround game vs a season ending game. The number of games the Chargers would be behind K.C. would jump to four with only seven games to play. That would mean, for L.A. to over take K.C. in that event, they’d have to win out while the Chiefs would have to go 3-and-4. That’s with K.C.’s remaining schedule being:
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The combined record of the teams K.C. will have to face after tonight is: 23-and-40. Of all the teams the Chiefs will face the remainder of the season — IOW, after the Chargers game — only two of them have winning records, the Bengals and the Seahawks. If K.C. loses this game, the Chargers become contenders again and the Buffalo Bills jump back into first place in the AFC Conference (with a win today, on their part plus, the 7-and-3 Dolphins go up against the 1-and-7 Houston Texans today — in Miami — so I’d count that one a a victory). Depends on what happens in today’s games.
For the Chargers, the ramifications of winning or losing and the difference, is dramatic. Boltbeat, a Los Angeles Chargers FanSided website, has an article called, “Playoff implications of Chargers-Chiefs” in which they say,
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“… if the Chargers win this game then they will having a 62% chance of making the playoffs this season. However, if the team loses then they will have just a 30% chance of making the playoffs.”
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The article goes on:
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“The Chiefs’ playoff chances are not going to go down much with a loss to the Chargers. Even with a loss, the Chiefs have a 97% chance of making the playoffs and an 89% chance of winning the division.”
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The Chargers rank 30th in rushing yards per game with 84.9. Consequently, I’m not sure how they expect to make it to the playoffs with such bad number coming into Week 11. While the Chiefs may still have a great chance to win the AFC West, even if they lose tonight, their chances to win the AFC Conference goes down considerably, especially if the Bills win (in Detroit, versus the Browns). The difference in approach to this game may come down to: the Chargers desperation vs the Chiefs talent and willingness to dominate.
Since day one of this season, the Chargers have lost their starting Left Tackle (Rashawn Slater), will be without their star CB (J.C. Jackson), and lost their star DE (Joey Bosa), plus at least a half a dozen other players who have landed on the Injured Reserve list. If the Chargers win this game, it will be an upset of major proportions.
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Injury Reports
Here’s the Chiefs Injury Report from Friday:
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Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kadarius Toney, Justin Watson and Skyy Moore sound like a solid group of WRs to me. Especially if Kadarius Toney goes off, as I believe he will (outlined below).
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On Thursday, the Chargers had WRs, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, running routes. Consequently, I’m predicting they play in this critical game for them.
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The Chargers WRs look pretty smooth there, even if it is a ruse to fool the Chiefs. If Allen and Williams are near to 100%, they can pose problems. However, if they are less than that, the Chiefs Fab Five — Trent McDuffie, Jaylen Watson, Joshua Williams, Nazeeh Johnson, and Bryan Cook — should be able to clean their collective clocks. BTW, I’m hearing that these Bolts’ WRs are not 100%.
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Chiefs Beat Writer, Matt Derrick, also says this about the Chargers Injury Report:
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“K Dustin Hopkins (right hamstring) is doubtful.
Cameron Dicker will kick if Hopkins doesn’t go.”
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Cameron Dicker is a back-up Place Kicker. The Chargers are using a roster spot on a back-up place kicker.
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Hidden Weapon
While Kadarius Toney (KT) is not so “hidden” anymore, his 2 runs for 33 yards and his 4 catches for 47 yards against the Jags, still makes him an unknown weapon. While his ceiling is clearly still uncharted territory, the expectations will be out the roof come next Monday morning, if he does in fact, blow the top off of the Chargers coverage unit.
KT has looked so good to me, that I’m wondering why the Chiefs would even entertain the thought of going after Odell Beckham Jr.. Brad Henson Productions says: “Kadarius Toney is a star in the making” and I would 101% agree with that assessment. So much so, that I see no need to add a guy like OBJ, or especially his cost. My prediction/recommendation is: re-sign JuJu, keep developing MVS, let Hardman go, make Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore the future of the WR corp., and spend your cap dollars elsewhere.
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That means, I believe Toney will have a breakout game today, much like he had against the Cowboys in his rookie season with the Giants. Toney had 10 receptions for 189 yards, plus 1 carry for 7 yards versus Dallas and that was in Week Five (5), on October 10, during the 2021 season. I won’t be surprised at all to see Toney have a better game today than he had in Week Five (5) just a year ago. Toney has it all: leaping ability, side-to-side quickness, speed, strong hands for fighting for and catching the ball, plus the ability to go up and adjust his gloves on the way to making a sensational catch, like this:
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The Chiefs have also called up WRs Cornell Powell and Marcus Kemp on Saturday, but no one knows yet if they’ll be active by game time. Both will go back to the Practice Squad on Monday Morning.
Chargers Rushing/Passing Attack
In the Chargers last three games, they’ve averaged 57.0 yards rushing per game. For those keeping track, that’s not very good. At all. While Austin Ekeler is a good back, you can expect to see QB Justin Herbert trying to pass him the ball out of the backfield more in this game. This will be a good challenge for Linebackers Nick Bolton and Willie Gay in coverage.
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Chiefs Passing Attack
While the Chargers gave Patrick Mahomes fits in their first game the 2nd Week of this season, the absence of Joey Bosa should change that formula plus the progress the OL has made this year, should help as well. Because, the Chiefs have the NFL’s best Tight End in Travis Kelce, when you add WRs MVS, Kadarius Toney, Skyy Moore, and Justin Watson, it’s not like Mahomes won’t have many different options when he drops back.
Chiefs Rushing Attack
After nine (9) games played, the Chargers rank 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game with 146.8. I’ll be unpleasantly shocked if the Chiefs don’t run the ball down the Chargers throat tonight. I expect to see: Run, Run, and more Run.
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The Return Game
The return game I’m talking about here is the return of DE Frank Clark. Prior to his going on Suspension, Clark was having his best year since the Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV following the 2019 season. If Clark can return to form quickly, not only is this game in the bag — or should I say “Sack” — but all the rest of them will be too.
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Coaches Speak
While the Chargers look good on paper, that page mostly looks like an injury report. While the status of the Chargers two best Wide Receivers is yet unknown, we do know that Edge Rusher supreme Joey Bosa — who was the 2016 Rookie of the Year and has made the Pro Bowl 4 times — will be out of this game. That may mean the Chiefs running game will be in top form, and will likely include Clyde Edwards-Helaire. However, I expect rookie 7th rounder Isiah Pacheco to start again as we’ve learned this week that Kadarius Toney will be taking all the Punt Return duties, and Special Teams coach Dave Toub said this week that as far as Kick-off return duties go, he’s going to start taking a look at other guys back there (besides Isiah Pacheco). One reason the Chiefs might want to take a look at running other guys back there, is that the Chiefs intend to see if they can use Pacheco first in line, as RB#1.
One good reason the Chiefs will likely use CEH this week is that the Chiefs — it’s been suggested — are embarrassed. Embarrassed? Yes, as in, Humiliated. I get the point, because starting and utilizing your 7th round pick over your 1st round selection, has to be a humbling event. Sure, it’s just as all the coaches said this week, “We’re going with the hot hand,” and apparently that’s also something CEH recognizes and accepts. OC Eric Bieniemy has said that CEH has continued to be a professional and has worked hard throughout the week and still prepares as if he’s starting. Sounds like more pretty Coach Speak to me. Pretty enough to cover up the idea that they’re actually sad. They may not be guilt-ridden… but they should be.
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Referee Crew: Shawn Hochuli
The 4 columns on the right (first two on the left) show the number of penalties against the opposition and the penalty yards against the opposition. The far right columns show the penalties, and yards against, the Home team. Shawn Hochuli and his reffing crew has averaged 12.3 flags per game. Only three teams have been penalized less than the Chiefs this year.
White on White
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SoFi Weather
While the weather back East is causing a game between the Bills and the Browns to be moved from Buffalo to Detroit, the SoFi Stadium is an indoor stadium, but no matter, here’s the hourly weather report for this evening in L.A..
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Prediction: Chiefs 42, Chargers 21.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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