Laddie Morse
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Once upon a time, everyone interested in this game was circling it on their calendars and expecting this to be a grand contest for the AFC Western Division crown. Now that the Denver Broncos are 4-and-11 and on the way fast to nowheres-ville… the outcome and it’s meaning has changed rather dramatically. Now, the game means waaaaay more to the Kansas City Chiefs — and their fan-base — then it does to the Broncos and their remaining faithful.
Earlier this week I intimated that “all” of Russell Wilson’s teammates were estranged from him, but that’s apparently not true. Here WR Jerry Jeudy makes it clear:
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Jeudy may be inspired by Wilson but he’s iffy to play in the game today.
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The Denver Broncos Injury Report
The Kansas City Chiefs Injury Report
The most significant loss for the Chiefs right now would be WR Mecole Hardman.
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The Difference
It’s been just a few weeks ago that the Chiefs traveled to Denver to face the Broncos. In that game, the Chiefs scored 27 points in the first half, but only 7 points in the second half. However, those 7 points were the difference between the two teams as the Chiefs came away with a 34-to-28 win. Yes, the difference was only 6 points so those 7 points that K.C. scored in the second half were the game winning points.
The Chiefs have no game-ball puncturing flaws — even considering all the rookies they have on defense — but if Patrick Mahomes keeps on throwing INTs like he did in the first game — he threw three (3) — then this game could pivot on those turnovers and become a loss.
Running the Ball
The Broncos defense ranks 16th vs the run (focusing on yards allowed) and they have allowed 1,761 rushing yards. The Kansas City Chiefs rank 17th in terms of running the ball and have rushed for 1,756 yards. What I think this means is that the Chiefs intend to run the ball and run it a lot. Part of the reason for thinking that is that the Broncos defense has given up 4.4 YPC while the Chiefs are rushing at a 4.71 clip. The other reason is, that the Chiefs have been relying more heavily on the run in recent games and with the ascendance of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon, Andy Reid will want to get them ready for the playoffs. I also expect to see the RBs used more in the passing attack, especially because Pacheco and McKinnon are also play-makers as pass-catchers.
On the flip side, the Broncos will want to run the ball as much as possible to begin the game, with the hopes of keeping Patrick Mahoems on the sidelines. However, the Chiefs are ranked 9th in the NFL in run defense and have only given up 1,607 yards all year. That only works out to 107 YPG. The Broncos have rushed for 1,603 YPG, so the evenness between these two teams makes the control of the running game, the difference in the game.
Does Reid Call the Plays?
When it comes to passing the ball, there may not have been any coach in the past 20+ years who likes to throw the ball more than Andy Reid. What we can’t predict is… what formations he’ll throw it from. That’s 90% of the pleasure of watching an Andy Reid offense. On the issue of “Who calls the plays” for the Chiefs, here’s Reid for 00:28 on that issue:
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Although Reid is saying here that EB (Eric Bieniemy) is the one calling the plays, he and AR (Andy Reid) have spent a good deal of time scripting the first 15 offensive plays together and even though AR is saying EB calls the plays… perhaps what he means is… EB is the one to call the plays into Mahomes, so that EB’s voice is the only (or last one) that PMII hears. Either way you look at it, there’s no way Andy Reid doesn’t have a deciding impact and overriding influence on the plays that are called.
AR says of EB: “He literally calls the plays in there,” which could mean, EB is the one who tells PMII what the final verdict is on the play, which is being decided upon by Reid and Bieniemy (and others). There’s some discussion time about the “next play” on each offensive down so you’ll sometimes see Mahomes gesturing with his hand like, “Come one, come one, give it to me.”
Can EB claim that he is the OC and play-caller for the best offense in the NFL? Sure, why not. Especially if it gets him a job as a HC next season. Reid admits here that if EB has a play he likes, Reid uses it:
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“… I have the full trust that if he (EB)
has an idea, we shoot it, and we go.”
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OTOH, here’s Travis Kelce trying to clarify that Reid does call the plays:
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Then… there’s Reid saying he sent Mahomes the wrong play (second vid below):
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Obviously, if Reid was sending Mahomes the wrong play, he had to be the one sending him all the plays. Right? Maybe.
How does any of that matter in the game today vs the Broncos? It does simply because he’s been the man in charge of his own team — as a Head Coach — for 24 seasons now and all that experience makes a difference. This is Reid’s 10th season in K.C. and he has a .719 winning percentage, so of course we want to hear that he is calling plays. The reality may be that, he has his head set on and can hear all the plays EB is sending in to PMII, but he also has the last say on the plays being used. My sense is that AR has more input in some games than others. Of course, he and EB have previously agreed on the first 15 offensive plays scripted prior to the game.
Politically speaking, it’s Eric Bieniemy who is calling all the plays. That makes his portrayal to other teams — come HC Hiring Time — much more appealing. On one hand, I don’t care who is calling the plays into Patrick Mahomes… on the other hand, those plays better be the right mix and successful.
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Russ and His Teammates
We know what Russell Wilson has accomplished in Seattle years ago. However, just last season the Seahawks were 7-and-10 — before he was traded to Denver — while this season with the Broncos he has been 4-and-11. It was 9 years ago now that Wilson lead them to the Super Bowl and won it. It was the very next season that Pete Carroll called a pass play at the goal line which lost them the game, as that pass was intercepted by the Pats DB Malcolm Butler. Had the Seahawks won that game, they would have gone down as one of the greatest teams of the Super Bowl era. As it was, they’re left with the “Legion of Boom” moniker, which refers more to their defense than their offense.
While I believe the Chiefs will win this game going away, I’m concerned that the Broncos will break out with Russell Wilson as their leader and the Chiefs new collection of players needs to step up and make sure that doesn’t happen.
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Referee Assignment: Tra Blake
Tra Blake and his crew have been assigned to referee today’s game between the Chiefs and the Broncos. Yahoo.com says this about Blake and his crew:
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“Blake has not officiated a regular-season game for the Chiefs or the Broncos this season, but he was assigned to Kansas City’s preseason Week 1 game against the Chicago Bears. His crew called just two penalties for 11 yards against the Chiefs during that game and seven total penalties. His crew has averaged 12.64 penalties per game with 85 on the home team and 92 on the away team. This crew also has tied for the third-fewest dismissed penalties in the NFL.”
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Arrowhead Weather
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It looks like an ideal day weather wise for football… unlike last week’s game.
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My prediction: Chiefs 44, Broncos 17.
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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
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