Jacoby Brissett, Jimmy Garoppolo, Ryan Mallett, Kevin O’Connell, Matt Cassel, Kliff Kingsbury, and Rohan Davey. This is a list of the seven quarterbacks that Bill Belichick has drafted in the past 15 years with perhaps the best QB of all-time on his roster. Belichick, one of the best coaches of all-time, obviously believes in the “Swing and Swing Again” philosophy and approach to drafting quarterbacks. The Kansas City Chiefs have been notorious, in years past, for not swinging for the fences when it comes to QBs in the first round of the draft. Chiefs general manager John Dorsey successfully orchestrated a trade, moving up from pick #27 to #10 to take Patrick Mahomes II. If drafting a QBOTF was easy, then everyone would do it. Right? But giving up two first round picks plus a third round selection makes that pick a bigger investment and a bigger risk in terms of team resources.
So, is there anything that a GM and HC can do to minimize the risks? Andrew Luck was drafted first overall in 2012 and he was hailed as the best QB prospect in 10 years and the best since Peyton Manning entered the league. While Luck has been good. He hasn’t nearly been the great QB they thought he’d be. Yes, he’s got 132 TD passes but he’s also thrown 68 INTs. You can’t blame all the sacks on him but he’s been a lead leader in that area more than once.
There are no sure-fire absolutes when it comes projecting the success of a college QB to the pro game. The best you can hope for is a pliable and talented prospect with a solid college resume paired with a pro quarterback coach who can get the most out of him. Saying that Patrick Mahomes will be a success or failure at this point, doesn’t mean one dad-blamed thing. However, saying that the philosophy of swinging for the fences and drafting a QB high in the draft repeatedly is a bad move, is quite another.
If the Chiefs fail in their attempt to transform Patrick Mahomes into a successful top ten QB, should we say that they made a mistake of drafting him? To me, that’s a two-fold question.
- Was Patrick Mahomes a mistake?
- Was trading up to #10 a mistake?
1) Patrick Mahomes- I wanted Deshaun Watson but Patrick Mahomes was the best pick, in retrospect. There’s no way for any of us pleb-fans to truly evaluate how the personalities of — HC- Andy Reid, OC- Matt Nagy, and newbie Patrick Mahomes — will be able to co-exist and coalesce. That’s something that only Dorsey, Reid and the in-house evaluators could know (or hope they know). Those who want to under-value the importance of the head coach-player alliance need only think about their own workplace and how that applies to the bosses and co-workers you work with.
2) Trading Up to #10- John Dorsey was right to have spent all that draft-capital on drafting a QB with the 10th overall pick in the draft: two 1st round choices and a 3rd rounder. In fact, I was initially surprised they didn’t have to pay more to move up to the 10th spot in the draft. There is a new Revised Draft Trade Chart and whether or not you’re using the old one or the new one it does reflect that the Chiefs paid a little too much for the 10th pick in the draft. Although we’ll never know if there was a bidding war for that pick. If Mahomes turns out to be a conservative Brett Favre, the deal will look like a steal. Of course, Mahomes could fail and become another in a long list of draft bust QBs.
If that happens and the Chiefs fail with Mahomes, they should turn right around and do it again… and then do it again after that until they get it right. The Belichick method is to continue to select QBs to keep on deck, even though he has a good one in the batting cage.
What are their other choices? Do you want the Chiefs to continue to spend their 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th round draft picks on quarterbacks in hopes that they are the next Tom Brady, Dak Prescott, or Russell Wilson? The chances of finding a great one in those rounds is mathematically twice and three times higher than it is of finding a great one in the first round. Or maybe you want the team to continue to trade away second round picks for the Matt Cassel’s of the world? There are a lot of fans who would place Alex Smith in that category but his winning record would not support that claim. However, for every Alex Smith of the chiefs-mo-cosm… there are two (or more) Elvis Grbacs.
To support my work at Patreon –> go here. If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to donate, [GO HERE.](https://www.patreon.com/laddiemorse)
While I am an Alex Smith fan I also recognize that he is not at the level of a Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning (only because he has 2 SB rings), Matt Ryan, or Cam Newton, and that doesn’t count the top two: Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady. In the history of Super Bowl winners, I believe that Steve Young was the only QB ever who was traded to a team and then won a Super Bowl with that team (fact checkers, check to see if I’m wrong).
There are those who believe that college QB prospects are rated way too high. Here’s what a former NFL general manager said recently about ranking college QBs in the draft, “To truly rank a quarterback, you need to place him on your draft board right where you think he deserves to be, based upon his skill level, then move him up one round higher, and that’s where he should be ranked.”
You’ve heard it a thousand times, “The quarterback position is the most important position in all of professional sports” and if you think that’s not true then just look at how much they’re paid. Take the Miami Dolphin’s starting QB Ryan Tannehill who’s average annual salary is $19,250,000. So, Tannehill makes more than a million dollars per game and his offense was 26th in passing in 2016. Maybe they should try to institute “paying-for-performance” like they’ve been trying to force on teachers.
Am I saying that the Miami Dolphins should not have risked an 8th overall pick on Tannehill? Not at all. They really had to do it in my book. The next best QB coming off the board that year was Branden Weeden at #22 to the Browns.
Although I began writing this piece on Thursday, the timing of the following tweet yesterday couldn’t be better for this piece.
@ArrowheadPride You posted this on Facebook 3 years ago today. pic.twitter.com/r2PT8afjle
— The Pit Boss (@ib6ft9) May 7, 2017
You may be a fan of a different QB than the one that Andy and John drafted ten days ago… I understand that completely… but there’s no way to justify saying that the Chiefs should not have “gone for it.” That’s the only way to get that job done. Like I said before, if Mahomes doesn’t work out… I hope they use draft picks to trade up and draft another one in a few years.
If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to join the Discussion, [GO HERE.](http://arrowheadone.com/drafting-a-qbotf-swing-and-swing-again/#disqus_thread)