In 2017, things could go very right for the Kansas City Chiefs… or they could go very wrong. Head coach Andy Reid and general manager John Dorsey have moved all their chips to the middle of the table and are playing the hand they’ve got. One different starter on offense since 2016 — whoever replaces WR#1 Jeremy Maclin — and one different starter on defense — Bennie Logan instead of Dontari Poe — would indicate that JARD are all in with this group. So, let’s take a look at how things could go right… or how things could go wrong, in 2017.
When Things Go Right With the Chiefs Offense
The drafting of RB Kareem Hunt should signal the re-arrival of passes in the flat to running backs (as if they were on vacation). Andy Reid’s eyes were bulging out of their sockets on draft day when the Chiefs were able to attain Hunt for two reasons: 1) Kareem Hunt and the word fumble should never be used in the same sentence. Actually, I lied about that one but, I literally mean “one” because Kareem Hunt fumbled one time in 800 touches while at Toledo, and 2) Hunt can catch the ball like another wide receiver (he caught 41 passes in 2016, to go along with his 262 rushing attempts) so you can bet dollars to donuts that we’re going to see a high number of passes in the flat to get Kareem Hunt out in space… and btw… he’s pretty dang good in space (see Andy’s eye-balls).
Furthermore, that should work well.
Striking a balance between the passing game and the running game should work well… and things should go right for the Chiefs. Over Spencer Ware’s first six games of 2016 he averaged 5.4 yards per carry. 5.4 if excellent when you consider that Jamaal Charles is still number one in average yards per carry (ypc) among all running backs in the history of the league at 5.5 ypc. However, Ware tailed off to average 3.6 ypc in his last six games. Keeping Ware fresh with a balance between running and passing among running backs — ala Kareem Hunt — will not only help the team but keeping a balance between the running game and the passing game overall will be an indication that things are going right in 2016.
When Things Go Wrong With the Chiefs Offense
If Tyreek Hill’s input into the offense disappears for games at a time like it did in 2016 (there were 5 games in which Hill was targeted 3 times or less)… it will be a bad sign. When the front five (or six) offensive linemen are unable to give Alex Smith the time and protection he needs to throw the ball downfield… long… even if that’s only a few times per game… it will be a bad sign. If there is little other production besides TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill on offense… it will be a bad sign.
The first issue deals with Andy Reid getting off base and out of sync with his own game plan… and if for some strange reason Tyreek Hill is not a a part of that game plan, the Chiefs re not very likely to win that game in any event.
As has been the case for ten or more years now, the Chiefs OL has a limited level of play either in the run game or pass protection. We’re hearing that the continuity along the OL should help to make them better in 2017 but if they don’t take a grade level leap up the NFL rankings as an OL group, this team is probably not advancing in the playoffs, if they get there. Parker Ehinger needs to take the biggest step of all and Laurence Duvernay-Tardif needs to take another step as big as the one he took last year for the team’s offensive goal to be realized.
Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are quite capable of putting the team on their backs and winning one game here or their, all on their own. However, for the team to thrive, someone else like Chris Conley, Spencer Ware, or Alex Smith must ball-out for that to happen.
When Things Go Right With the Chiefs Defense
When the defense plays ahead in the count, they usually hit home runs. The K.C. defense finished tied first in the league with 18 INTs so when they’re able to create pressure on opposing QBs and force bad throws they are going to end up with turnovers eventually. “Eventually,” because the Chiefs D had almost as many INTs that got away — passes they had their hands on — so it should not surprise anyone if the back end produces more INTs in 2017 than they did last year.
That of course depends on what might end up being the Chiefs defensive strength in 2017: their pass rush. The Chiefs defense produced 28 sacks in 2016, which got them the honor of a 28th place rank. I like to read the tea leaves and since the Chiefs did not take an OLB like many suspected they would in this OLB heavy draft… to me, it means one thing –> they knew that Justin Houston’s recovery was going well and made the decision to re-invest in Dee Ford: instead of Chancellor Valorum (Ford) getting a vote of NO CONFIDENCE… JARD (the Senate) voted their own guy back into office.
When Things Go Wrong With the Chiefs Defense
There are times when Marcus Peters has taken too many risks and a WR is able to get behind him. In most of those cases. Peters was able to come back and shut that same WR down or make a pick to balance out the risk-taking. Bob Sutton’s defense is based on a lot of man coverage on the outside — ideally — and if the outside coverage breaks down opposing offenses can end up gaining huge chunks of yardage.
In the playoff loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Chiefs defense was unable to stop their running game… until they got close to the end zone. While the Chiefs run defense allows a lot of yardage they don’t allow a lot of teams into the end zone.
While the defense was good that day — not great — but good, after all they held QB Bed Roethlisberger to a 27.7 QBR that day the offense could only muster 16 points in a two-point loss. In other words, both the offense and the defense must come through and play well for the Chiefs to thrive in 2017. Balance should be the keyword this season.
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