It’s the basic premise of any pro team or professional sports participant during the offseason: to improve on your weaknesses. That was assumed to be the idea this year for the Kansas City Chiefs when they set out to turn around their run abysmal defense from 2016. Anytime you’re ranked in the bottom 20% of the teams in your league in a major category like yards allowed, you should make that an offseason priority. Presumably, that’s the reason the Chiefs released Dontari Poe and signed both Bennie Logan and Roy Miller at nose tackle. Now that the transition is in full swing, it begs the question: what will it mean if the Chiefs run defense is markedly improved?
While I can be persuaded to believe the run defense will be better in 2017, I’m not of the mind that the Chiefs will have a top ten run defense… yardage wise. Instead, they will likely move from 26th to the mid teens, but more importantly, become a shut down defense inside the red zone. In 2016, when the Chiefs were #26 against the run, yardage wise, they were #7 against the run in total points allowed… and that’s the top 20% of the NFL.
While we’d like to see the Chiefs move up the list in total yardage allowed, we’d also like them to maintain or move up into the top five in points allowed vs. the run. Since we know an emphasis is being placed on run defense, that’s precisely what I’d expect to happen. Consequently, the biggest outcome will likely be the ability to stop drives short of the red zone, giving the offense more opportunities.
More offensive opportunities, especially early in the game, means more chances to score. Now, if your offense knows you can get them the ball back in decent field position, you may see them taking more chances when they have the ball. What chances? The kind of chances downfield and more importantly, in game planning, so that the long ball game is part of the scheme in each game.
It’s been frustrating to watch other teams pitch the ball long again and again… while the Chiefs play their skinny dink-and-dunk game all the way down the field — when successful, which to tell you the truth, has not been that often — only to be stopped at the 30-yard line and forced to those fiddle-faddle-fugde-nugget kick field goals. If the defense can become consistent enough that the offense knows they can count on the D to stop the other team on a regular basis… head coach Andy Reid may become the kind of coach who makes sure that the bombs away passing game is written into the teams weekly offensive design. On the flip side… when the offense knows it has to play a ball-control-offense, to keep it out of the other team’s hands, it limits the play calling.
Other consequences of an improved (yards allowed) run defense:
- If a run defense is good… it can cause more third-and-long for the other team, the pass rush should improve.
- If a run defense is good… it may force the other team to throw more so, the other team may end up with a few more passing yards.
- If a run defense is good… and the other team throws more, the Chiefs will have more INTs.
- If a run defense is good… and the other team throws more, the Chiefs will have more sacks.
- If a run defense is good… it could allow the Chiefs to play from ahead instead of behind, which happened frequently in 2016.
- If a run defense is good… it could go a long way in helping you win a championship.
Let’s talk about that last one. Does anyone recall watching the most recent Super Bowl when the Falcons had the Patriots down and were leading 28-3? The Falcons gain 104 yards that day but only 9 of those yards came AFTER they were up by what looked like an insurmountable score. The lesson? If you can shut down the opposition’s running game at will, you have a chance… IN EVERY GAME. Even in a championship game.
Yes, five out of the twelve teams that made the playoffs finished outside of the top ten in total yards allowed. However, when considering the two Super Bowl participants, you already know which team was not in the top ten. …
So, do I think it was part of the Chiefs offseason plan to make their run defense more efficient against the run in term of total yards allow? Absolutely. How much do I think it could help this team? It could be their gateway to a championship.
Furthermore, I think they know it too. If you could typify what the Chiefs training camp has been focusing on this year… I’d say the long ball on offense and stopping the run on defense. If the Chiefs can achieve those two goals this year it will make 2017 a very special year.
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