To me, Sammy Watkins always made a ton of sense for the Chiefs. Former 4th overall pick, blazing speed, YAC ability, he’s a perfect fit for their offense. That, or of course, was when I was thinking of a one-year deal. Veach had something else in mind. He signed Watkins to a 3-year deal for $16M per year. This is the kind of move that can make or break a team, and will, likely, be the defining moment of GM Brett Veach’s young career.
The Price: Let’s not beat around the bush, $16M is a LOT of cash for a WR. There are only two WRs making more than that: DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown. It is, however, worth noting that the NFL’s WR core is aging. Looking at the top names in WR contracts, a lot of those guys have been employed for a while. NFL contracts go up over time, so while Watkins is among the highest paid now, others will likely pass him up in the near future. Even so, if Watkins doesn’t stay healthy, this is going to be a bad contract.
Contract Length: I believe that Chiefs best chance to win a Super Bowl is before Mahomes 2nd contract. Since the Chiefs have the 5th year option, that would be the next three years. In this context, Watkins contract makes a ton of sense. He offers Chiefs a legit #1 WR during their championship window. Best case scenario, the Chiefs get three productive years of elite WR play, and, when he hits FA, they’ll probably get a comp pick when someone else signs him, because they’ll have to pay Hill and Mahomes. Chiefs have a lot of bad cap coming off the books the next few years, so even if Watkins is a tad overpaid, it shouldn’t hurt the Chiefs too much.
The Problem: Watkins hasn’t started all 16 games since 2014. Veach is taking a heck of a risk to sign Watkins. I’m going to trust, for now, that Chiefs have done their due diligence on the medicals, but if injuries prove to be an issue, during his tenure, this will forever be a move that the Chiefs shouldn’t have made.
The Potential: Lets say Veach is smarter than the rest of us and has figured out that Watkins will stay healthy. His potential, in the Chiefs’ offense is off the charts. Before Watkins got hurt, his productive years were playing for Tyrod Taylor, a QB who has never thrown for much over 3000 yards. In his 2nd year with Taylor, Watkins was on pace for 1288 yards receiving, but missed three games due to injury. Watkins is a big time deep threat, who has never averaged less than 15 YPC. With Mahomes under center, and Hill on the other side, opposing defensive coordinators will have an impossible choice. Choose to single cover AT LEAST Kelce, Hill, or Watkins, and even if you double cover two of them, You’ll have to deal with Kareem Hunt in the backfield. Defenses, at times, will have to play dime or nickel defense, with just two WRs on the field.
The Bottom Line: This signing is 100% boom or bust. If Watkins is back to his old self, Chiefs just built the most dangerous offense in the NFL. If he isn’t, the Chiefs better hope that his injuries come early in the year, not during the playoffs when they need him. Every GM eventually becomes loved or hated, Veach took the kind of risk that will solidify that impression in the minds of most fans and soon. Let’s hope it pays off. Go Chiefs.
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