So, What’s Wrong?
I cannot perfectly understand what is going on with the Kansas City Chiefs, but I can make some judgments based on the 7 games played in 2021. I wrote two weeks ago that there was a disturbance in the force on the Kansas City Chiefs football club. I think it is quite apparent now that such is the case.
The Chiefs, as a team, do not come out and get on the field, buoyed by the championship persona. They are not fired up as a “team.” If I had to source a single component of the team’s lack of a contender’s swagger, I would place that pointer to the source as being Andy Reid. The problem is far deeper than just this, but it starts with ownership on the field of play, and the director, choreographer, and leader for that venue, is the Head Coach.
On Tuesday, Kent Swanson of KCSN captures my thinking of a dark cloud. He wrote:
“Something is fundamentally wrong here. Things we aren’t privy to between Sundays are very clearly different with this team. ‘Championship Swagger’ left with the Buccaneers.”
The deeper part of the problem has a lot of factors that must be addressed, thus, it is difficult to ascertain the genre of how to make observations and who to place in the spotlight.
Story One: Starts with the Offense
Before the season started, Patrick Mahomes indicated that he was working on fundamentals. I believe that I saw it as taking shorter drops. A 7-yard drop is not a short drop. Sticking with the pocket is a shift that PMII has made. He is doing far more to work within the pocket than he has in prior seasons. At the same time, drifting deep, which Patrick is wont to do, puts tremendous pressure on his OT’s especially in a speed rush at the edge. This is proven by the opposing DE’s disturbing the pocket, eventually flushing the QB and disrupting any rhythm Patrick may have had.
To be sure, the Chiefs are still scoring, but not enough. They are averaging 6.6 yards per play. points per possession. Using Expected points per play, his number is 0.23 versus the zone and 0.18 against man-press coverage. What surprises me about this is that the number against man coverage is lower than with a zone. You would think with Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce being the most prominent targets that the number would be considerably better against Man-Coverage. Even so, the Chiefs are ranked 3rd in EPpP. Ty Hill has 52 catches-641 yards. Travis Kelce has 45 receptions and 533 yards. Third on the team is Mecole Hardman, who has 30 catches, 289 yards. At this point, they need to get Gordon on the field and engaged.
The run game is difficult to address. When you are trailing, it is not going to be a focus of play calling. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has 65 carries, for 304 yards and Darrel Williams has 52 attempts and 181 yards. Hardly anything to write home about.
Harrison Butker has a perfect result on XP’s and has only missed one FG attempt — over 50 yards on that miss to boot. Of note, Andy Reid almost called upon Butker to attempt a near 60 yard FG versus the Titans and then called it off. Despite all of the faux pas, rank 3rd in offense behind Dallas and Tampa Bay. From this, you might conclude that the defense is a major problem — except that the Chiefs D has 7 takeaways and it’s the offense that has given it up 17 times so K.C. leads the NFL in Giveaways with -17. Consequently, K.C. is last in the league right now in the difference with -10. Condensed from footballdb.com:
Story Two: Delving Deeper
Perhaps the most important indicator is found in the reduced numbers related to Explosive plays (20 yards or longer). From previous seasons, Mahomes and the Chiefs explosive and dynamic offense has been successful in more than 10% of the plays (numbers from 2019-2020). It is 2 points lower in 2021. That tells me something. Defensive Coordinators have figured a way to defend against the Chiefs’ aerial attack and become successful at a far greater percentage of the time. Sooner or later that pressure has resulted in the Chief’s failure in scoring. If they are forced to punt the ball, they are giving the opposing offense their next shot. Note: I used NFL stats presented by Sheil Kapadia of the Athletic.
Mahomes Proficiency
That is not just a simple story of an opposing defense’s secondary being far more successful. With a seven-yard drop, Patrick Mahomes requires 3.0 seconds or more to find his primary target, and if that receiver is not open, he must progress through his reads and receiver options which requires even more time to release the ball. What we saw happen on Sunday vs the Titans clearly demonstrates that the elongated time needed to find a target and it worked to the detriment of the Chief’s offense.
It also is an advantage to the opposition to have the Chiefs working in the 2.5-3.5 second timeframe. It is somewhere at the end of that time frame, that Patrick Mahomes flushes. Or he gets happy feet. Why? Because they went up by scores of 7-0, 14-0, 17-0, effectively eliminating the concern about run-stopping defense. The defense was focused on pass-rush on every play.
What we commonly presumed would be to our advantage, getting up in the score and forcing a run-oriented offense go aerial, then the Derrick Henry factor could be reduced, bu it was exactly the opposite. The opponent got the lead, held the lead, and played the pass-rush against KC. Even being down 27-3 the Chiefs should not have been out of the game.
Reid em and Weep
This leads me back to the Andy Reid factor: play-calling and making adjustments to the in-flow of the game. Andy Reid, as play-caller did not do this. He stuck, obstinately, to his pre-conceived aerial superiority which has not been greatly successful in 2021. Witness the Chiefs record: 3-4. My point about this may be as simple as other teams have found a way to slow down the Chiefs mighty offense and turn it aside. The failure to adjust to what is happening on the field of play… that responsibility lies at the feet of Andy Reid.
Story Three: More is Less
The Offensive Coordinator is failing to get in Andy’s face about play-calling, and that reflects poorly in Eric Bieniemy. Or, if Eric is doing what he should be doing, Reid is ignoring his First Lieutenant. Either way, it is a failure of communication at the head of what should be a beast. To be sure, Eric Bieniemy should be working to get Andy Reid to change the strategy of attack. I thought we would see a switch by Mahomes, to more quick, Tom Brady-esk, pass plays. They are not in the playbook, or if they are the OC and HC are ignoring the facts as they are presented to them during the game as they fail to make adjustments that would work against the defense opposite the Chiefs. Over the past two post-game pressers, Andy Reid has stated that he saw things he had not seen before. That’s great coach-speak. It means nothing to me except that Andy Reid, game after game is failing to make adjustments to what the opposition is doing.
Story Four: Defensive Woes
The past two games have shown improvement in the play on the defensive side of the ball. In the game against the WFT and the Tennessee Titans, the Chiefs defense held the opponent scoreless in the second half. This does not excuse the play in the first half of both games. In both games, the defense gave up 13 and 27 points respectively in the first half of each game. Versus the Titans, giving up 27 points in one half of a football game is not good defense. Using the magic number of 20(about which I have written several times) the Titan’s 27 points exceeded the number by a TD. That is not good. My judgment has been if the defends holds the opponent to the magic number or lower, the offense should win the game. With how the offense performed, that was not “happenin'”… at the same time, you must give some credit to DC Steve Spagnuolo’s adjustments from the first five outings. There are bright spots and dark holes.
Woe Be Gone
On the Titans way to piling up a 27-to-0 lead, the Chiefs offensive production in the first half included: a Punt, a Punt, an Interception, and a Fumble. For a defense tasked with getting the ball back in the hands of Patrick Mahomes… the Patrick Mahomes offense was giving the ball back to the Titans with way too much frequency.
The Never Ending Story: Concerns About Leadership and the Offense
Much of what I’ve written about above, relates to Andy Reid’s leadership as Head Coach, but relates to his assistants as well, and specifically Eric Bieniemy. I don’t know whether or not Eric is actively trying to shift the offense’s approach to the opponent’s tactics. I would hope that he is doing so. At the same time, some fault must be laid in the pass blocking that we are seeing from the front five. So we must also include Andy Heck in our deliberation.
As far as I am concerned, the Chiefs offense should have won the games with the Chargers and Ravens and if they had won those two games, their record would have been close to ascending to the front end of the AFC West. The Chiefs are in a deep hole and a playoff appearance is in jeopardy. The way the team is playing? I am not convinced that the lowly Giant’s won’t win the game against the Chiefs let alone the Packers, the two teams the club faces next.
Laddie Morse Got Specific on Tuesday
Something that has been a worry shared between Laddie and me, beginning in the off-season, was the effect that Britt Reid’s tragic accident has had on Andy Reid. Laddie went so far as to go back to the tragic death of Andy’s elder son, Garrett. I am not a psychologist, but have been a licensed counselor and have dealt with grief and PTSD in Veteran clients of the Contract Agency’s program for which I worked both as a counselor and the director of the program, so please note: I am not a psychologist. However, I’m acutely aware of the difficulties in processing tragedy that occurs in life, such as the death of children or other events which surround each of our lives. I thought it important that Laddie wrote the article that he did. If you have not read it, please do so, see it here: Open Letter to Clark Hunt: Please Sit Andy Reid
Calm at the Eye: K.C. LB’s Show Up!
Willie Gay collared an INT versus the Titans. Nick Bolton had 15 tackles. Bolton has 40 tackles and leads all NFL rookies. He leads all players on the Chiefs (of course) and has a shot at being named RoY in the NFL.
The secondary coverage in the second half of both games was good. The pass rush has been negligible all season. Frank Clark has now become a liability… at great cost. He has now been charged in court for the second arrest on illegal weapons charges. With Hitchens out, the young LBs played well. Just as Andy Reid has been dealing with real-life trauma and worry, this must be affecting Frank Clark.
The move of Chris Jones to the outside, appears to me to be the wrong move. Not having a defensive counterpart to Frank Clark — who is clearly under-performing — has hurt the Chiefs pass rush. At the same time, the situation outside, has made the move to acquired Jarran Reed who plays on the inside, moot, at least thus far.
I worried about not having a veteran presence in the CB group and that appears to have affected their play in the role. The switch from Sorensen to Thornhill was a huge plus. Getting Rashad Fenton and Charvarius Ward back to the defense was important. There has been far too much influence to get Ben Niemann and Dan Sorensen on the field. As the players shifted, the play improved, but it is still a weak defense.
Bottom Line
Players on both sides of the ball are not playing good football. They are making mistakes left and right and that includes Patrick Mahomes. The key to leadership of the team is in Andy Reid’s hands and that leadership appears to be faulty at this moment. The Chiefs are not playing football as they have since 2013 and certainly not as they did from 2018-to-2020. As it is now? They do not deserve a post-season spot, pure and simply.
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David Bell – ArrowheadOne
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