A First Look at the Chiefs 2020 Draft: The Bump Method

A First Look at the Chiefs 2020 Draft: The Bump Method – Happy New Year’s Day everyone… and what a better time to be forward looking, than right now. So, let’s take a peek ahead to the 2020 NFL Draft in April and see what can be seen… or obscene… as the case may be.

In the years following the time Andy Reid came to town in 2013, the Chiefs have drafted lower in each round… thankfully… but that also means, the Chiefs are drafting lower in each round. Consequently, I have learned to apply something I think of as… “The Bump Method” to help me get a handle on who the Chiefs will, or will not, be drafting, position-wise.

In the Bump Method of predicting what player, or players, will be available, I look at what positions are loaded near the top of the draft, and then use that to bump other position players down to the Chiefs. In this year’s draft, it looks like the Bump Method may come in more handy than ever by helping to predict what players could be available.

The Chiefs Draft Needs in 2020

Let’s begin by sorting out the Chiefs draft needs. In my viewpoint, the 2020 Chiefs are primarily needy at: LB, CB and OL. Mostly in that order. Many will disagree with me but, here’s the basic rationale for each position group:

Linebacker – let’s begin with the one position group that has no star player: Linebacker. The Chiefs don’t have an outstanding one right now. Not even close. Steve Spagnuolo’s defense could be epic… with an exceptional LB. Damien Wilson is average, but Anthony Hitchens has been a bust overall while Reggie Ragland is apparently going to be allowed to walk in Free Agency. Keeping Hitchens will cost $12.7M in 2020 while cutting him would add $4.2M of dead cap. Does anyone think Hitchens is worth $12.7M? No. Dorian O’Daniel had 5 defensive snaps all season and Darron Lee had 160 — or 10 per game — so, neither figures into the Chiefs future, you would assume. K.C. hasn’t had a “special” LB since Derrick Johnson was in his prime. Is there a LB prospect who will be available late in the 1st round? Walter Football says this about LB Kenneth Murray: “Murray is a fast and physical linebacker who flies around the field and is always around the ball. He is put together well and a good tackler.” The Chiefs LB position group is one in which, everyone is mediocre or worse, and that’s why I’m listing them first in terms of team needs.

Cornerback – the Chiefs have so many CBs on the roster… who are not under contract… for 2020 and beyond. With huge holes to fill there and only Rashad Fenton and Alex Brown (besides starter Charvarius Ward), they won’t begin to fill those holes. Neither will Keith Reaser… if, and that’s a big if… he’s able to come back from an Achilles tendon injury (remember, an Achilles injury essentially ended both Eric Berry and Derrick Johnson’s careers). Also, Charvarius Ward’s deal ends after 2020. Bashaud Breeland, Kendall Fuller, and Morris Claiborne are all on contracts that end after this season is over and then, the cupboard will be nearly bare at CB. Is there an excellent CB prospect who will be available late in the 1st round? John Newman of NFLMocks.com says of CJ Henderson: “One thing is clear to me, from watching the film and looking at overall production, C.J. Henderson, from the University of Florida, should be the first Cornerback drafted this year.” I think Henderson will still be on the board for Veach because Jeffrey Okudah and Kristian Fulton, two high profile CBs from Ohio State and LSU respectively, will go earlier in the first round. Critical Note: Chiefs will need more than one CB.

Offensive Line – the Chiefs Franchise player needs to be protected for the next ten years and beyond. Period. Many will list this as a top priority but if Andy Reid is still the HC in 2020 — and we all know he will be — then he’s still going to play puppet-master over the OL and he believes he can transform any PinocchiOL into a real man. So, what are you going to do? When growing up, a friend of mine was told by their mother that, “Hoping and Praying”… that’s how babies are made. Apparently, some Chiefs fans still think doing the same will change Andy Reid. It won’t. Is there an OL prospect who will be available late in the 1st round? TheDraftNetwork says this of OT Trey Adams: “Tough and tenacious player in the trenches. He plays with very good block temperament in the run game. He is a finisher that plays from snap to whistle… He also does a good job getting his body in the position to wall off defenders. In the passing game he is very good.” It has been suggested that if the Chiefs draft an offensive tackle, then they could slip Eric Fisher inside to Offensive Guard… an idea I’m in favor of.

Other Positional Needs

Yes, TE, RB, and DL are other positions of need for K.C. but not in the way LB, CB and OL are. Simply put, all other needs are secondary or even tertiary.

So, will there be a plethora of those high quality players available once April rolls around? According to NFLMock.com:

“This is a great year to need an offensive tackle as there is legitimate talent at the top of the 2020 NFL Draft and great depth throughout.”

That’s good news but, it isn’t exactly the Bump Method I’m talking about. For instance, if there were a greater number of high quality wide receivers in this draft, since the Chiefs don’t have a primary need at WR, that means several teams in front of the Chiefs will likely be picking a WR, which also means a high quality OT will be getting bumped down to them. Thus… the Bump Method.

Although, in this case, the Bump Method isn’t just a theory because in reality, there are, a high number of WRs who will likely go in the first round this year. Walter Football projects that there will be 11 (eleven) possible WRs who could go in the first round in 2020. Of course, there won’t be that many who end up being taken there, but the high number of good WRs is encouraging for the Chiefs because they won’t really need one.

Why? Because the Chiefs will have Marcus Kemp, Felton Davis, Jody Fortson and Gehrig Dieter all ready to step in if they decide to let Sammy Watkins go so they can take advantage of his last year of salary. Plus, Watkins hasn’t been worth the money spent so far so that’s fairly likely. Here’s why I think Sammy Watkins will be replaced by Mecole Hardman:

• • Sammy Watkins has had 52 catches this season for 673 yards on 53 catches, for $19.2M. The Chiefs will save $14M against the cap by cutting him (but will take a $7M dead cap hit). He is owed $21M in 2020.
  • Mecole Hardman has had 26 catches this season for 538 yards on 26 catches for $908,191. He’ll cost $1,135,239 in 2020.

CBS Sports is predicting that there will be at least 4 QBs taken in the first round of the coming NFL draft (and it could be more) and since we can project that the Chiefs won’t be selecting a QB, it means that one of those players of primary need should be getting bumped down to them… even more. The more QBs who are picked before the Chiefs pick, the higher the likelihood they’ll get a higher quality OL, or CB or LB (or, whoever they decide to select).

Time For a Corner?

CBS Sports is also reporting that 7 CBs and 2 Safeties are projected to go in the first round. That means, this is a good year if Brett Veach has targeted a CB/S type of player who could come in and contribute in his first season like Juan Thornhill has in his rookie campaign. Now, I’m not suggesting the Chiefs go after a Safety in the first round at all. However, in Steve Spagnuolo’s system, many Safeties and CBs function interchangeably, so if Veach spots a football smart Safety who is fast, with excellent cover skills, don’t be shocked if a Safety (slash, CB) shows up as the Chiefs 1st rounder.

The top nine CBs listed on DrafTek are in the 6′-0″ to 6′-2″ tall range, the kind of size the Chiefs have been lacking there for several years now. Also, we know that Reid & Co. value CBs enough to take one in the 1st round: they took Marcus Peters with the 18th pick of the 2015 draft. That was 5 years ago now so the time is ripe for another 1st round CB. Also, when the Chiefs traded out of the 27th pick in 2017 to jump up and take Patrick Mahomes, Buffalo then took Tre’Davious White who became a pro Bowl CB. Let’s hope Reid & Veach, can find a CB of Tre’Davious White’s caliber in this draft.

Opting Out of a DL Early?

In the month following the 2019 NFL draft (May of 2019) Matt Miller of Bleacher Report had projected 7 Edge Rushers going in the first round, and while the Chiefs might see an Edge Rusher as a 1st round quality possibility, with Alex Okafor under contract next year as well as Breeland Speaks and Emmanuel Ogbah coming back off of IR, it seems less likely Veach will go that direction. Once again, if a high number of Edge Rushers go high in this draft, it will push players at a position of need down to the Chiefs where they will hopefully be picking at #32.

With a productive Edge Rusher like Nick Bosa, being drafted at #2 in the 2019 draft, the trend should continue to be for teams to go get a guy who can get after the QB as well as he did this season for the 49ers (9 sacks, 47 tackles, 25 QB hits, and 2 passes defensed). So, even though DrafTek only has 3 Edge Rushers going in the top 32, a team in the first round might stretch to get someone like Terrell Lewis, an Edge Rusher out of Alabama who DrafTek has listed as their 41st prospect. If that’s the case… more Bumping for the Chiefs.

Trade Wars and More

As Paul Pulley hinted at in his piece last week called, “Chris Jones: Tag and Trade” the possibility of ending up with more than one first round pick this year is pretty good if the Chiefs can find a trade partner, hopefully in the NFC. With that possibility hangin out there, it’s reasonable to project that the Chiefs could come away with two dynamic contributors next season as well as the next four years and all on a rookie pay scale. Yes, I love Chris Jones and wish there was a way to keep him. The only possibility seems to be as a Franchise Tagged player. Which, also means not trading him next year. Then, the Chiefs will be faced with the same dilemma in the offseason of 2021. So, might as well move on now and strike while the iron is hot… iow, as long as C.J. still has maximum value. That could make the 2020 draft one thrilling ride for Chiefs Kingdom. Here’s an early look at the current NFL Draft order that we know about so far:

We haven’t even started the NFL playoffs, or finished the bowl game, and haven’t crowned a NCAA National Champion yet either… plus we’re still a long ways away from the NFL Combine in Paradise, Nevada — that’s right, it’s not in Indy this year — and the Combine always seems to change everyone’s point of view… so maybe I’ll take a chill pill on projecting who the Chiefs will focus on early in the 2020 draft. Naaah… what’s the fun in that? Besides, I just can’t help myself.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

P.S. Here’s the 6th mock I’ve done this year and although each is only a 4 round mock, at this point, they have all provided players to get excited about. It should be a very good draft this year based upon what little I know so far. I’m especially fond of Jordyn Brooks. He makes a lot of plays behind the los and he had 20.0 tackles for a loss this year. Plus, one draft analyst compared Cam Akers to Mark Ingram. After everything else I found out about him, and witnessed on his tape, that was the tipping point for me (he ran a 4.41 – 40 yard dash coming out of HS).

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