A “Preparing for Patrick Mahomes Extension” Approach to the 2020 NFL Draft

A “Preparing for Patrick Mahomes Extension” Approach to the 2020 NFL Draft – back on February 4^th, 2 days after the Kansas City Chiefs won Super Bowl LIV and you could still smell the fireworks from that victory, Alex Reimer of Forbes.com wrote a piece called, “Patrick Mahomes’ $200 Million Extension Would Likely Prevent Chiefs From Winning Multiple Super Bowls” in which he projected the impact to the Chiefs if… Mahomes new contract would get done this offseason. Now of course, we all know that the Chiefs GM Brett Veach is taking the #RunItBack approach to winning another title in 2020 by bringing 20 of 22 starters back and putting off the eventual re-structuring of what will likely be the Mt. Everest of all deals in National Football League history.

It most certainly won’t happen now until the offseason of 2021 but Reimer went on to project that a new deal for Mahomes could look like this:

“… a five-year deal with $220 million in new money. A signing bonus of $70 million could be partially deferred, keeping Mahomes’ 2020 cap number down to $15 million.”

That sounds about right. Take a look at the top paid QBs in the NFL right now:

Since we can expect Mahomes deal to go one better than the current top money maker on this list, Russell Wilson, let’s take a closer look at his contract (from OvertheCap.com):

• 2020 Salary Cap Charge: $31,000,000
• % of 2020 Team Cap: 15.53%
• 2020 Cash Payout: $18,000,000
• % of 2020 Team Cash Spending: 10.81%
• 2020 Cash to Cap Ratio: 0.58
• Total Contract Value: $140,000,000
• Annual Contract Value: $35,000,000

How Does Mahomes 2021 Deal Affect the 2020 Draft?

By reviewing all of the other Chiefs player contracts for 2021 — players they have under contract beyond this coming season — you can see that K.C. has:

• one cornerback (Rashad Fenton)
• one running back (Darwin Thompson)
• one tight end (Travis Kelce)
• zero punters and,
• one starting linebacker (Anthony Hitchens)*

* Dorian O’Daniel had 5 defensive snaps, Ben Niemann’s contract ends in 2020, Damien Wilson’s contract ends in 2020, Lee and Rags are gone and Hitchens has been poor.

Obviously, the Chiefs will be making a move to secure other players at all those positions. The question is: when?

Let’s take Punter Tyler Newsome for example. Maybe he wins the job from Colquitt in camp and Veach extends him. He’ll be cheaper than Colquitt and he could be the future at that position. More importantly, the Chiefs find a player who they know they can count on in 2021 and beyond.

The proposition is not so easy with one corner on the 2021 roster. Rashad Fenton may turn out to be the next coming of Darrelle Revis, and even if he is, one solitary CB isn’t enough. Having so many other holes may end up proving Alex Reimer right… that Mahomes extension could prevent K.C. from winning multiple Super Bowls. Unless, they take care of CB business in the 2020 draft.

If the issue was just at CB, it might not matter so much. That’s fixable in one year’s time. However, with only Darwin Thompson locked up for 2021 at RB and only Travis Kelce at tight end? That’s a bigger deal than you know.

On top of all that, they only have 3 WRs on the roster next year: Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman and Fenton Davis (who has yet to catch a pass in an NFL game). Meaning, K.C really only has two proven WRs ready to go in 2021.

Also, both offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz have contracts that end after the 2021 season.

The relevant question all of this raises is: how does this affect the 2020 draft coming up in a few days?

Let’s take the offensive tackle position. If Reid believes he has a replacement for one of his tackles on the roster already, someone like Martinas Rankins, then he still needs to get another one. A good one. Does he gamble and wait until next year to fill that position? It’s possible. However, OT is a position made more important by the presence of Patrick Mahomes? In a draft filled deep in good OTs… as well as WRs, CBs and DBs… if a stellar OT fell to the Chiefs in round one, do the Chiefs take an OT? Sure seems likely to me.

Cornerback is most baffling. Ever since Marcus Peters left town — and I’m not saying they shouldn’t have traded him — but ever since he left, the Chiefs have needed more CB help and while they found a good one in Charvarius Ward sitting in the Cowboys dumpster, even his contract ends in 2020. So, if one of the top CBs falls into their laps at #32 or #63 do they take him? Once again, seems highly likely.

Is Veach Going Days of Future Past?

While the Kingdom has been focused on the team’s so-called, primary needs, based on immediate roster holes, the coming draft approach by Brett Veach may have a lot more to do with preparing for the future… to make next offseason one filled with far fewer monetary demands (which is what rookie deals can provide). Veach is preparing for a future in which one player (Mahomes) will tip the scales and most all others will need to be… ahem, on the cheap… as they say.

Yes, I realize that Frank Clark and Tyrann Mathieu and Anthony Hitchens all come with hefty price tags too, but that’s another reason why a new deal for Patty is not going to be easy peasy.

Question: who could be the cheapest players? Answer: rookies on rookie deals. It’s important to know this, because you can be sure Veach doesn’t want to sacrifice quality on the roster as a whole, just to pay one player. I believe Veach has been preparing for this eventuality for years, so, let’s look at who has been drafted over the past few years.

From the 2019 draft: including Mecole Hardman, Juan Thornhill, Khalen Saunders, Rashad Fenton, Darwin Thompson and Nick Allegretti… we can expect all of these players to play this year and to contribute heavily.

From the 2018 draft: Breeland Speaks, Derrick Nnadi, Dorian O’Daniel, and Armani Watts (Tremon Smith and Kahlil McKenzie have moved on). All these players should play a big role this season.

From the 2017 draft: only Patrick Mahomes and Tanoh Kpassagnon are left. All others are gone including: Kareem Hunt, Jehu Chesson, Ukeme Eligwe, and Leon McQuay III. This draft by John Dorsey, makes it crystal clear that the 2020 draft must produce players who stick.

Six drafted players from 2019 and five players (left) drafted from 2018, are still on the payroll in 2021 and should play a significant role on the field. Caveat: who knows if DoD will be around then and Allegretti is an unknown with upside.

The future — 2021 and 2022 — makeup of the Chiefs roster salaries needs to be players who come from the draft and are on rookie deals. Plus, since K.C. needs so many of these rookies (and their contracts), then it seems more likely than not, that Veach will trade backwards with one of his first two picks… to secure more draft picks. With 9 of the 11 draft picks sticking from the past two drafts (so far), Veach will need that kind of hitting percentage in the 2020 draft as well.

By peering into the 2021 roster crystal ball, we may be able to get a closer picture of who, or what positions, will be targeted in this weeks draft. My bets are on CB, WR, TE, LB, RB, IOL and OTs, in who knows what order? In other words, almost every position is in play and BPA is likely going to be the focus in this process. From there, it’s going to be up to the NFL gods to determine who lands in the Chiefs lap… cross referenced with the list of their favorite prospects. Brett Veach has a mountain to climb for sure.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

P.S. You can be sure that Veach and crew have made the same investigation into 31 other team’s 2021 rosters to see who they “have to take” in this draft. Two truisms for success in the NFL: “Know Thyself” and “Know Thy Enemy.”

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