A Red Friday Outlook For the Game at Mile High

David Bell

Chiefs Injury Outlook

I have a bottom line on injuries. This week, the Chiefs are in good shape. What is needed is to prevent injury to #15. I will cover a bit about that later.

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All 53 participated in practice but Nick Bolton and Kadarius Toney had Limited Practice (LP). That’s a great sign, but Toney and Bolton’s status is questionable for Sunday.

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LP = Limited PracticeFP = Full PracticeDNP = Did Not Practice

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Limited Practice (LP)

LB Nick Bolton (Groin) – Questionable
WR Kadarius Toney (Hamstring) – Questionable

Full Practice (FP)

QB Patrick Mahomes (Foot)
S Deon Bush (Elbow)
RB Jerick McKinnon (Hamstring)
LG Joe Thuney (Ankle)
RG Trey Smith (Knee)
CB L’Jarius Sneed (Calf)
OT Lucas Niang (Knee)
CB Jaylen Watson (Hand)
CB Joshua Williams (Quad)
RB Isiah Pacheco (Shoulder/Quad)
LB Willie Gay Jr.(Groin)

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From the Friday Presser

It appeared that Joe Thuney would play and had a Full Practice Status Thursday and Friday, but Nick Bolton was limited on Thursday. However, Kadarius Toney remains a question. The Chiefs are cautious with Toney – a Hamstring injury can be any of three classifications, but a re-occurrence is to be avoided. I believe Toney tweaked the hammy (low-level Injury) and could play. I suspect the team waits a week since Toney was limited on Thursday and Friday. With Hardman out at least one more week, I’d like to get Toney back active with the WR Group.

Of the 13 players who appeared on Kansas City’s injury report on Monday, 11 of them returned Tuesday to FP status.

Mahomes will start vs. the Broncos. I saw questions arise because he hit the injury report on Monday but was FP status on Tuesday through the rest of the week. Joe Thuney returns to his starting role at lOG. Lucas Niang is ready to rock. Our OL is at least healthy again(more on that below).

The Broncos list is quite extensive. Here is the view of their players. I’d take all the questionable status listings with a grain of salt.

Broncos Injury Report – Thursday

LP = Limited Practice

FP = Full Practice

DNP = Did Not Practice

Dakota Allen LB Hamstring DNP (Questionable)
Andrew Beck TE Hamstring/Illness DNP (Questionable)
Tom Compton G Illness DNP LP (Questionable)
Brandon McManus K Quad (right) LP (Questionable)
Dalton Risner G Shoulder/Back DNP (Questionable)
Courtland Sutton WR Hamstring DNP (Doubtful)
Jacob Bobenmoyer LS Wrist FP – Will play
Baron Browning OLB Elbow FP – Will play
Jonathan Harris DT Knee LP (Questionable)
Kareem Jackson S NIR- resting player FP
Jerry Jeudy WR Ankle LP (Questionable)
K’Waun Williams FS Wrist/Elbow/Knee LP (Questionable)
D.J. Jones NT Shoulder DNP (Questionable)
Jonathon Cooper OLB Ankle LP (Questionable)
Albert Okwuegbunam TE Illness LP (Questionable)
Justin Strnad LB Knee LP (Questionable)
DeShawn Williams DE Illness LP

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This is the basic Update to the Injury list from Friday. Compare to the above list:

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Beat the Broncos – #1

The worst they can do is split for the 2022 season with a win on the road. The Chiefs have already beaten the Chargers twice. They faced the Raiders, 5-8, after Thursday night’s game vs. the Rams. Then, KC plays the dastardly men in black in the last game of the season.

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The Raiders are 5-8.

The Chargers are 6-6.

The Broncos are 3-9.

Texans is 1-10-1.

Seahawks are 7-5 (the only team remaining with a 500+ record)

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In week 17, the Chiefs face the Broncos, Followed by the last game of the season vs. the Raiders in week 18. I went to bed on Thursday night and did not finish the game out in LA. I expected to see the Raiders come away with a win. Unfortunately, Unfortunately, that was not to be. Baker Mayfield engineered a last-possession drive, and the Rams scored the winning TD with 16 seconds remaining in the game.

There is a good possibility that the Bills drop a game between now and the finish line, which would put the Chiefs on top for the AFC WC bye. So take care of biz and hope for the best. The chiefs should finish 14-3 and hope the bills finish… 13-4. I cannot see the Chiefs letting up because the Bye is still within reach.

Defense!

On Defense, with Bolton, Gay, Harris, and Chenal, our LB crew should be in fine fettle. I feel the same way about the Secondary. Our CBs appear to be approaching a group that performs at peak level. Trent McDuffie is fulfilling his draft promise — big time. I like what I see from Joshua Williams and Jaylen Watson. It may not be a shutdown corner group, but it is edging in that direction. Meanwhile, Safeties Justin Reid and Juan Thornhill are playing good football, with Bryan Cook getting meaningful snaps and growing in the role. Deon Bush, who missed last week, rounds things out. I like what our secondary is accomplishing.

The Big question for the defense is pressure on the QB. Chris Jones was largely stymied vs. the Bengals. Carlos Dunlap made major plays. We need to see GK grow and get more sacks. He is tied for the lead in QB pressures. If our front 7 can handle the run-game defense and pressure Russell Wilson, the game should remain solidly in the Chiefs’ hands.

My Bottom line for the defense’s outlook is that they should hold the Broncos to 20 points or under.

Over On Offense

I want to see more of Jody Fortson, Jerick McKinnon, Isiah Pacheco, and Skyy Moore getting opportunities — the latter three targeting the Edge in the ground game. Not everything was bad in the game vs. the Bengals. Fortson continues to be a solid target for PMII. More, please!

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At the same time, both RBs Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco had good games on the ground — both also broke plays around the Edge — as did Skyy Moore on a Jet Sweep. So pay attention, Andy Reid! I also feel that with Hardman and Toney out, the offense has got to exploit the route running of Skyy More and Justin Watson. We have good depth for the passing game — including Fortson and Gray — and need to use it.

The sad thing about the loss was that the Chiefs were driving, twice, in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately, #87 was stripped of the ball, which ended a drive… then, on the last possession, Patrick Mahomes was sacked to end the Chief’s chances, an OBJr fail.

I don’t think it’s hype to see the Chiefs finish the season that way. Even if they lose 1, they still have the second-best record in the AFC. That is not hype. This is a top team in the NFL, one of the best, averaging 29.x PPG. When the season started, a bunch of national NFL Pundits and Analysts thought the Chiefs would be fortunate to finish with a 500 record… and out of the playoffs. Sure, there are things I am disappointed about, but in addition, the reality is that the disappointments are limited–the Chiefs only have three losses, not much. As spoiled fans, we need to see the reality of life in the NFL. We are fortunate to be fans of a top NFL team.

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Remember what things were like a decade ago!

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Big Picture Wise

We fans have become spoiled. We anticipate perfection, and when it doesn’t happen, we hear doom and gloom from around the Kingdom, with the NFL naysayers and pundits leading the chorus. I also think the powers that be, east of the Hudson, do not want the Chiefs to succeed. Hence, the super difficult schedule, and sometimes, I think the conspiracy trickles down to the officials, so I guess that makes me a: Conspiracy Theorist. I do indeed think that the NFL, as a power, demands parity at any cost.

The truth of the matter is that the teams of the NFL can indeed win on any given Sunday (or Thursday). Witness the game on Thursday Night Football this week. I went off to read a book and didn’t finish watching the game. With the well-traveled QB Baker Mayfield, who had three days in LA before the game, the Rams won the game coming from behind. Wow.

All NFL players have excelled at their craft enough to play for a professional football club. They play hard, tough and rough, making for great entertainment for fans of the sport. However, does any team have a perfect roster? Nope! KC’s roster needs a boost for the future from actions this coming off-season.

Last night I ran two Mock Drafts via DrafTek to see if I could set a goal and accomplish my desired result. Well, of course, it’s way too early, but I was curious. I evaluated both mocks and believed they were a success –in both cases; I obtained a top OT and DE in the process… but as noted, it’s far too early to consider it seriously.

Laddie wrote in his Friday article — Chiefs Headlines — that we had problems at both OT positions and echoed a sentiment of mine that Orlando Brown was an $8 Million Dollar Man… certainly not a player worth $16M+. About the OTs, Laddie wrote:

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“As for Right Tackle, I’m hoping we can find out the verdict on Lucas Niang long before this season is over. Andrew Wylie is someone who I have always viewed as a: sometimes very good sub. We need to see Niang in game-day situations asap to see if his recovery is full and complete or if Brett Veach needs to go shopping this offseason for two Tackles instead of one… and I say this because it’s my strong belief that Orlando Brown is not the answer at LT.”

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Protecting Patrick Mahomes is in Jeopardy

Brown Whiff! -This was Orlando’s worst performance thus far!

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Taking Laddie’s view a step further, I quote Seth Keysor from Chief in the North:

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“Look, I’m on vacation, and it’s a beautiful day here. So I’m going to get straight to the point; Orlando Brown Jr. had a bad day against the Bengals. And that’s not the only bad day he’s had this season.”

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Seth provided the insight from a tweet by Zach Eisen after the game vs. the Bengals by posting the same tweet that all of us saw, and it reflects poorly on both Brown and Wiley:

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More to the point about Brown was Seth’s detail in examining every snap for Brown in the game. Brown had a 17.9% loss total for the game. The Cutoff point for Seth is 10%. That was a rotten game for Orlando Brown, and Seth’s research demonstrates it. This fact alone should cause a huge question mark for 2023–even if Veach made Brown an offer of $8M.

Wiley Whiff

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On the Right Side

I am sure that Reid and Bieniemy are chomping at the bit to get Niang back into the starting lineup, but they do not want to “Break” a player who is in the process — at least, that’s what I am thinking.

Even if Brown took an offer far less than next year’s tag, wouldn’t he still be an average LOT? We need more from him. Remember the last sack of PMII in the game, which ended the drive? It was OBJr who gave up the sack. The Chiefs still had a shot at a comeback win until that happened.

Andrew Wiley was porous as well. That’s why I stick with Lucas Niang. It’s time to get him back on the grass, Andy, Eric, and Andy! –> Wiley is a journeyman depth player, if it breaks him, it’s time for him to go anyway.

It might be time to bench Brown as well and start Geron Christian. Brown’s game against the Bengals was horrid. Maybe benching him will instill the right attitude in Orlando Brown’s mind. I did watch game film of Christian playing for the Texans and felt he was a valuable addition.

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While I generally agree with Jason Dunn, who observed it wasn’t time to pull the hair out, get back to the drawing board, talk about all the grand things and the weaknesses we have, and get over it, okay? That’s what we the Chiefs need to do.

Andrew Wiley is a weakness on the OL that can be fixed by working Lucas Niang into the starting front-five group. Andrew has a viable role for the Chiefs: as an offensive line depth player.

Logic exists when trying to understand why Austin Reiter was re-signed to the PS. –> Reiter knows the playbook and plays all three positions on the IOL. That has value should disaster strike as the Chiefs run through the remaining schedule and head into the playoffs. Recall what happened in 2020? The Chiefs were embarrassed by the Bucs in the Super Bowl with a depleted OL.

The only possible move for the OT roles is to install Lucas Niang at ROT. At this point, Geron Christian would probably be a wrong move at LOT, but it would perhaps send Orlando Brown a fervent message that he might take to heart. Maybe send Brown a message and insert Christian on the first possession. See what happens then. Like Laddie and many others, I am slightly sick of the Prima Dona.

This problem educates me on what must happen in the 2023 off-season as the Chiefs examine moves to be made and how they approach next year’s draft (Thursday, April 27 to Saturday, April 29th here in Kansas City at Union Station).

Last season, before Niang was injured, his play improved week by week. Sure. I have his back. For me, he proved he was successful in 2021. What is not proving successful is the Brown-Wiley Combo. At least take a shot at fixing one side of the OL with Niang!

Caleb James looked at the game film and gave Brown a 75%-25% won/loss rate (worse than Seth). He did show one successful protection play:

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Sidenote for the Defense

Taylor Stallworth was released, and then he signed with the Houston Texans. I see from their site that their fans support bringing him aboard. I don’t know if the roughing the QB penalty caused Stallworth’s departure, but it certainly had to be a factor. Brandon Williams is a better-run defender at DT next to CJ. Williams can also be a factor in the pass rush. Whatever must happen there, we need to return to the level of pressure that existed back three weeks ago and get five sacks, not just one.

Beat the Broncos – #2

I indicated that the Injury report for the Broncos should be taken with a grain of salt. Most of the players listed as questionable will play on Sunday, or the Broncos are hiding something. The Chiefs offense will face a tough Bronco Defense. Still, I cannot see the Chiefs losing the game. I cannot see them scoring less than 30 points. I can see the Chiefs defense holding the Bronco Offense to 20 points or less. I hope the Chiefs do not turn the ball over and allow Denver to score a Defensive TD. Turnovers can cause teams to lose games. Okay, Chiefs, play Chiefs football and secure the division and the playoffs in week 14!

Go Chiefs!

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That said: Chiefs 31 – Broncos 20

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David Bell — ArrowheadOne

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