Chiefs: The Vibes and High Jingo Tell Me the Chiefs are All Going “All-Juice”, “All-Game” Long
David Bell
Finally, the AFC Championship Game has arrived. The Chiefs suffered through an abysmal start going 3-4 before righting their great ship. They lost the game in week 17 to the Bengals and that cost them the AFC Playoff Bye. The team faced down some stiff competition to get to the AFC Title Game and had a miracle finish against the Buffalo Bills. Is it time to say that the Chiefs team, having arrived at their 4th consecutive AFC Championship game in a row, is going to be the “Terez Paylor” All-Juice Chiefs? I have it from good sources that the High Jingo has arrived. The Chiefs will defend their AFC Title and get hitherto the Super Bowl.
Observation One
Although the Steelers were an outgunned team from the beginning and the Chiefs won the Wild Card round handily, they still gave up late points. Of course, the final Roethlisberger TD was garbage time so I am discounting that score. The defense played well the whole game and had tier 2 depth players in and out of the game late. That is good to get those players’ game time snaps and it aids in a learning experience in NFL Live Time Football and in the playoffs to boot. That has got to help the team in the overall scheme of things — the Chiefs Mystique grows due to that participation.
Observation Two
Generally, the defense played the Bengals very well in week 17, especially in the first half. The fact that they gave up big plays and that is how the Bengals won the game has got to be a concern. At the same time, going over the Bengals game film all week should give the Chief’s Defensive Staff a leg up on how to again plan the playsets. The perfection of the plays that Burrows completed in week 17 can be prevented. Will Spags use L’Jarius Sneed on Ja’Marr Chase? Or will he play things straight up and add coverage over the top to prevent those huge plays? I really cannot see Spagnuolo gearing to change up the defense and use only one player to man-up on Chase. Nor do I see perfection from Burrows that wins out so many times. Charvarius Ward was tight upon Chase 3 times and somehow the pass was completed. That won’t happen in front of the Chiefs fans.
Observation Three
No matter what happens, Joe Burrow will be faced with a wall of noise that is much different than he faced last week: louder, constant, and disruptive. He will approach it professionally, but communication on the field is going to be difficult to handle with such volume. Count on it being a factor in the game.
Observation Four
The Bengals are on the road in the biggest game they have ever played. Keeping in mind the above factors, and the Chiefs playmakers holding sway in an All-Juice Championship Game? The Chiefs should have more than a 7 point advantage.
Observation Five
The Defensive Front Four are going to be a big factor. They are going to get into the pocket and disturb the passing lanes with their hands and leaps. I look first for tipped passes, but perhaps most of all… Frank Clark will breakthrough and sack Burrows. This will enthuse the whole front four players.
Observation Six
The Secondary of the Chiefs will have a tough day. This Bengals team is very good. I do not, however, expect the obvious successful assault that worked in week 17. I do expect Tyrann Mathieu to play. It would be a shame if he cannot go. Yes, I know he is “questionable” and there is a reason for that. At the same time, I expect ‘the Juan and Only’ to pick up on the responsibility that Tyrann provides should Mathieu be unable to play. That is not optimal, but if the Chief’s Front Four are “All-Juice” All Game, coverage times will be limited. That aids the defense tremendously.
Observation Seven
The Chiefs Offense will not be stymied as they were in week 17. Count on that. The offense on the ground and in the air will be a powerful force that the Bengals will be unable to overcome. A downturn in offensive firepower, will not happen.
What I expect? “All-Juice” Fans and Players Alike
Many people around the NFL have visited Arrowhead Stadium and come away from a game, impressed–some of them astounded. What happens in Kansas City is not just a game though. Former Chief’s OLB Andy Studebaker observed:
“This is not just about the game; this is about people doing life together.”
That is what will also be a hurdle that the Bengals must counter.
The Chiefs will be an “All-Juice” Team “All-Game-Long”.
Prediction? 35-21.
David Bell — ArrowheadOne
. . . . . . . .
Chiefs: Winning With… Stats, the Win Rate, LBs, and Patrick Mahomes II of Course!
Laddie Morse
Now that Tom Brady has retired, we can once again approach the subject of the “Best quarterback of all time?” Maybe a better question is, who is the best playoff quarterback ever? Nick Wright, of course, has something to say about that:
Wright goes on the say, “This has 42-to-17 written all over it.” My prediction is not far off of that, but let’s first take a look at some other stats.
Hill to the Hilt
NextGen Stats says when Patrick Mahomes hit Tyreek Hill for a 64-yd TD versus the Buffalo Bills, Hill reached 20.90 mph. When he did that, it was for the 14th time this season, which was six (6) more than the next closest player, who happens to be Ja’Marr Chase with eight (8).
Now would be a good time to restate that the Buffalo Bills had the best defense in the NFL, and the Chiefs offense scored 42 points off of them. The Bengals defense ranks 18th in the NFL according to FootballDatabase.com.
We all know how great TE Travis Kelce is and his game winning catch in overtime against the Bills is a living testament to that. While Kelce is already getting his fair share of Hall of Fame chatter, we should never neglect the greatness of WR Tyreek Hill:
SportsNaut.com had this to say about the Bengals secondary (who ranked lowest of the four teams left in the playoffs) and defense:
“We’re not expecting much from either defense in the AFC Championship Game, but this is the worst team [the Bengals] in our NFL defense rankings among the remaining four. Patrick Mahomes won’t make the same number of mistakes as Ryan Tannehill did, leaving the Bengals’ secondary to get cooked.”
The Bengals Path to Victory?
I don’t really believe the Bengals have a path to victory. However, the “Win Rate” of the Chiefs DL is the worst in the league in 2021 vs the run and the Bengals have Joe Mixon, who ranks 3rd in the NFL in rushing with 1,205 yards, 606 yards behind leader Jonathan Taylor.
That’s the only department that the Bengals were better than the Chiefs, but not by much. The Bengals “Stop the Run Win Rate” was 29% (two percentage points better than K.C.) and they ranked #25. Here’s a look at the other Positional Win Rate rankings:
As you can tell, the Bengals look like they don’t belong on the same field with the Chiefs, or any of the other playoffs teams. If K.C. is on their game today — and they should be — they’ll walk all over the Bengals. Here’s some other individual Win Rates that may thrill you. Let’s begin with Joe Thuney:
Then there’s rookie Creed Humphrey:
ESPN only highlights the top player in each group, but you’ll find Trey Smith high (3rd overall) on this list:
I’ve been saying for years now that Chris Jones is the second best interior defensive lineman in the NFL. Here, ESPN ranks him 2nd right behind Aaron Donald:
Linebackers Crowning Point
The addition of Willie Gay a year ago was when the defensive transition began to take place. Gay got fewer snaps than many of us thought he deserved. This year, while appreciating his mental challenges, we see his playmaking ability shining through. The addition of Nick Bolton, although a surprise to me as a draft pick, has excelled beyond expectation. Both David Bell and I have spoken frequently about the idea that Gay and Bolton could make Anthony Hitchens better. While that’s happened to a lesser degree than first hoped for, we’ve learned that Hitch is the QB of the defense and depended upon both in the classroom and on the field for relaying Spags calls and pointing out assignments based on his experience. That “Path to Victory for the Bengals” should be cut short by the Chiefs LBs. Not only will they be able to handle RB Joe Mixon, but take care of any short routes out of the backfield. The Linebacking corp will play a huge role in today’s game and any time the Chiefs get the Bengals into a 3-and-out, it will in large part be because of our LB crew.
Chiefs Secondary Coverage
Many have taken issue with the idea that the Chiefs might be in trouble in the game because of their secondary. However, they get a bit of a “Playoff Pass” because of the referee Crew assigned to the game:
More than anything, it looks like the Chiefs OL will have to keep their gripping of Bengals’ DL down to a minimum. However, the secondary looks like they’ll be getting a chance to play close bump and run, taking the Bengals WRs out of their route path early on, without reprisal.
In case you missed it, there was an eight minute Chiefs Drone Light Show over Kansas City Last night. It will play again this evening if the Chiefs win. Here’s a 24 second snippet of the show (turn volume way down first!). About the event from Union Station where it originated:
“180 drones. 400-feet wide aerial displays over Union Station. One AMAZING show of ChiefsKingdom pride! Check out this short preview of the spectacular drone lightshow launched over Union Station tonight by the @Chiefs in partnership with Image Engineering. Full video to follow!”
All arrows –and drones — are pointing up for ChiefsKingdom in this one.
My final prediction: 42-to-28, Chiefs in a blowout.
.
David Bell and Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne
.
If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to join the Discussion, [GO HERE.](http://arrowheadone.com/afc-championship-chiefs-host-bengals-preview-and-open-thread/#disqus_thread)
.