AFC Championship: Chiefs v Bengals, OPEN THREAD

Laddie Morse

Will the Kansas City Chiefs be going back to the Super Bowl for the third time in four years? Or, will it be the Cincinnati Bengals who ride off with their second Lamar Hunt trophy in Arrowhead Stadium in as many years? The team that wins this game, will be thought of in vastly different terms depending on who wins. If it’s the Bengals, they will be the new pride and joy of the AFC and crowned the AFC Kingpins. Until someone comes along and knocks them off their perch.

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If the Chiefs win today, the dynasty conversation starts anew and they will become the Reid-Mahomes dynamos that rule the roost. Also, if K.C. is able to knock the Bengals off their current throne, then the “rivalry” conversations will break out in full force… as pointed out by DT Chris Jones.

In any event… today is the day!

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Bullet Board Politics

I know I said I don’t want to mix football-and-politics… but, when a politician steps over the 50 yard line, what’s a guy to do? So, let’s take a look at the current “Bulletin Board” material being thrown down by bureaucratic entities: the Mayor of Cincinnati. He had this to say about the game recetly:

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Gyphy – Credit

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.The personal response from our Kansas City Mayor, Quinton Lucas?

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Classy. Pretty much describes the difference between the Mayors.

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“Officials want Mahomes to take a paternity test to see if Joe Burrow is his father.” ? ? ? That’s taking the “who’s your daddy” idea a little bit too far isn’t it? On the other side of the fence, there are those who were not happy with Chiefs LB Willie Gay when he responded to a question, “What impresses you about that Bengals offense?” and he said: “Nothing, Nothing.” While you can bet Bengals players are using that quote to decorate their locker room walls, many of their players have already started calling Arrowhead Stadium –> “Burrow-head” Stadium.

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Chiefs Offense vs the Bengals Defense

While the Chiefs offense has evolved this season and uses so may different playmakers — even though they lost Tyreek Hill — they lead the league in many different offensive categories. While K.C. leads the league in points per game at nearly 30, they only scored 24 against the Bengals in their regular season match-up so maintaining their drives and scoring at the end of them will be important. The Bengals used their running game to help milk the clock and won the time of possession by nearly five (5) minutes (4:52). Although the Chiefs lost Tyreek Hill as a long threat, they have speedsters who can go long including: Mecole Hardman, Kadarius Toney, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and even Skyy Moore if need be.

One way we know Patrick Mahomes is the better QB is when you listen to analysts discuss what might happen if these two teams traded QBs? In other words, the Bengals appear to have the better weapons than the Chiefs. However, if the Chiefs are 100% healthy, I might take issue with that. It’s hard to deny that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are both WR#1 quality pass catchers. If you balance that with Travis Kelce, you find the Chiefs have perhaps the best TE the NFL has ever seen. It may sound like I am not a Travis Kelce fan (the opposite is true), but since there is no actual way to determine who is the best TE ever… I added the word, perhaps. The point is, Burrow has a variety of weapons that help to make him very potent. If Mahomes had all the skill players he has, he’d probably throw for 6,000 yards each season.

In this game, it will initially be interesting to see if Patrick Mahomes is at all bothered by the high ankle sprain he got in last week’s game. I don’t think he’ll be hampered much at all by the injury last week, but the other Chiefs players should help to pick up the pace and make the difference needed to win this one. While most Chiefs fans will have an eye out for any change in Mahomes gate, let’s take a look at the rest of the match-up.

In a piece written by Jack Gentry for AtoZ Sports called: “Why the Bengals’ defense has the edge over Patrick Mahomes” he states:

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“Cincinnati’s defense ranks 23rd in the NFL against the pass, allowing opponents to throw for an average of 229.1 yards per game. Many factors contributed to a subpar pass defense in 2022, but the Bengals have hit their stride as of late.”

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It sounds as if Gentry is making my case for Mahomes to have a very good day, which is what I expect to actually happen. However, Gentry goes on to say:

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“In fact, no defense has forced opposing offenses into a higher percentage of difficult throws this season. Per the NFL’s Next Gen Stats, the Bengals have allowed the lowest expected completion percentage in the NFL (60.1%).”

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This is where the game will likely be won, or lost: which is in the Chiefs passing game. I’ve heard Chris Simms say on his podcast, “Unbuttoned” more than once this week, that he believes the Chiefs offensive line will excel and have a good game vs the Bengals… this time around. The Chiefs interior offensive line is perhaps the best int he NFL and LT Orlando Brown Jr. is playing for a contract in this game. It’s kind of a make or break game for him.

The weak link of course, is RT Andrew Wylie. If Wylie has a good game… the offense will succeed and be able to do almost anything they like.

It’s not a real game analysis without addressing the Bengals’ DC: Lou Anarumo. Anarumo is known for making terrific in-game adjustments and throwing everything at an offense — completely out of any kind of logical order — so they can’t tell what’s coming next. Chris Simms on Pro Football Talk says it best:

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Last Year’s AFC Championship

What the Bengals are hoping for is that this game goes the way the past three games have gone. Last year’s AFC Championship game was a mess for Patrick Mahomes. One thing we know about Mahomes is that he learns from his mistakes and he said of the 2021 AFC Championship game:

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“That second half I played, I didn’t play really good football at all. Probably my worst playoff football I’ve played was the second half of the game. So I’m just trying to use that as a learning thing that whenever I’m struggling or a team’s struggling, just find a way to get positive plays, because when you have a lead like that, you don’t want to lose that lead. We played such a great first half, even if we weren’t getting what we wanted in the second half, I have to get better at taking what’s there to try to get some points on the board, come away and get to the Super Bowl.”

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K.C. was leading that game 21-to-10 at the half (and lead 21-to-3 with 5:04 to go in the first half) and they could have gone for a 3-point FG from the Cincinnati 1-yard line with 0:05 seconds remaining, instead of throwing a bad pass to Tyreek Hill in the flat, which allowed the clock to run out and so… zero points were scored. Since the game was won by 3 points — 27-to-24 (in OT) — those three possible FG points would have come in pretty handy. I know Reid and company were trying to go for the jugular and get so far out in front that there would be no way of coming back from that deficit. However, in retrospect, it was a big mistake. Rule of thumb: you always take the points that are right in front of you.

The point is, Patrick Mahomes is not likely to play his worst half of football in today’s game — again — and both he and Reid have learned from their mistake(s). Another way to look at that game is… the Chiefs were driving at the beginning of the 4th quarter and Travis Kelce fumbles? Is that happening again? Ever? All the bad juju in the world isn’t keeping this offense from scoring a win. Not a fourth straight time. Just my two cents.

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In the 2022 season, the Bengals defense has given up 4 and a half yards less (total) than the Chiefs defense. That’s approximately one-yard per quarter. While the national analysts are saying the Bengals defense is superior, it doesn’t sound like it’s a ton better than the K.C. defense, not enough to shake a stick at.

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Bengals Offense Versus the Chiefs Defense

The Chiefs defense is better than it was… even just two months ago (eight weeks ago today) when they last faced the Bengals, and that was in Cincinnati. The Chiefs so-called rookie DBs are not rookies any more and… the Chiefs Linebackers are growing in confidence by the day… as are the Safeties. However, the biggest area of improvement comes from the Chiefs Defensive Linemen.

While the Chiefs defense has been steadily growing this year, the reality is… their pass defense is ranked third overall and only stands behind the Ravens and the Eagles by the time the post-season arrived (among all playoff teams). Perhaps the biggest discrepancy in the two teams stats comes when you are looking at sacks. The K.C. defense ranks second overall with 55 sacks on the season and the Bengals defense ranks 29th overall with 30 sacks.

Advantage Bengals

In an article written by Michael Niziolek for cleveland.com called: “Bengals don’t have very many weaknesses statistically…” he says,

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“Cincinnati can boast about having a top 10

scoring offense and defense, and having one of

the most prolific passing offenses in the NFL….”

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Niziolek points out the strength of the Bengals roster, which is their offensive weapons. With WRs: Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd… with RBs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine and with TE Hayden Hurst… the Bengals offensive weapons appear to be better than the K.C. weapons across the board… except at TE, and… QB of course! While Patrick Mahomes is a one-of-a-kind and a once-in-a-generation QB… Joe Burrow is a top three QB who makes everyone around him better.

Weather

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Thank goodness for heated fields like Arrowhead. Ye-Haw, GEHA!

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Referee Crew

9-year man, referee Ron Torbert, and his crew, have been assigned to do the honors. Charles Goldman of Chiefs Wire says of Torbert:

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“Torbert hasn’t officiated a Chiefs game this season, but fans will remember him from 2021, and not in a good way. He was an unscheduled white-hat substitution for John Hussey against the Bengals during their Week 17 regular-season loss.”

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However, Chiefs Kingdom fanatics will also be glad to know that Torbert and his crew threw the fourth fewest number of flags in 2022 with 172.

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Predictions

If the Bengals get out to an early lead, it will be difficult for K.C. to combat that advantage because Bengals DC, Lou Anarumo, will know that the Chiefs are going to their passing game primarily, and any time he can predict what the Chiefs will be doing, he’ll be able to control the game. K.C. needs to consistently incorporate their running game into the scheme and make it work. If they can do that, and control the clock a bit with their running game, they should come out victors in this battle. They lost the clock battle by 4:52 last time they played so that’s crucial. Whoever makes the least mistakes will very likely win this one. There’s a good reason why the Chiefs are hosting this game each year for five (5) years running: they have the best regular season record. Let’s hope that the Chiefs can easily transition from “hosting” to “hoisting.” After all, the trophy is named after the AFL — and Chiefs — founder, Lamar Hunt.

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I have the Chiefs winning, 35-to-21.

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Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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