Kansas City Chiefs Laddie Morse

AFC Conference Championship: Battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy

LadnerMorse January 19, 2020 No Comments Gallery

 

AFC Conference Championship: Battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy – perhaps we should add a “Take Two” to this title as the Kansas City Chiefs are in the AFC Conference Championship for the second year in a row and this time they look even stronger than the did last year, especially the defense. A much more balanced team could get them the prize they covet, a Lamar Hunt trophy, named after the founder of the Chiefs and hte AFL, Lamar Hunt.

 

Billionaire Lamar Hunt was so accessible and personable that years ago he took time out to write a Chiefs fan:

 

 

This letter from Connie Jo, a Chiefs fan, states up front:

 

“I believe without a doubt, that our beloved KC Chiefs are going to win this year’s AFC Championship Game. I know when they do, that I will become very emotional. I’ve waited for 50 years for that moment. I’ve even dreamed of it over the years.”

 

I know that many of us have waited for a long time, maybe not the same 50 years that Connie Jo has waited, but for some of us, even longer. Now, these Chiefs, led by QB Patrick Mahomes, have grown a national and international fanbase. Mahomes performances have become legendary and his production places him with some of the greatest names in the history of the NFL:

 

 

Ransom Hawthorne adroitly pointed out in his piece on Saturday called, “The World Has Changed: Lady Luck Smiles on Kansas City,” 

 

“Everything has aligned perfectly to put them in a position to do so [win]. From injury struggles, to the defense gelling, and the offense finally showing up, when it’s needed most, Chiefs are finally positioned to change the world.”

 

“Change the world?” Yes, that is an apt description of what it would mean to Kansas City and their fans. It’s been so long since the Chiefs went to the Super Bowl that many fans have developed reasons for that, like, “The Chiefs Playoff Curse.” Now, I should point out that there have been many urban rumors of sports curses before. Most recently, there’s the Madden Cover Curse, which says that if you’re featured on the cover you’ll be jinxed the next season… or the Sports Illustrated Cover Curse which basically says the same thing. While I don’t personally buy into any of that hocus pocus I will say, if there was a Madden Cover Curse, it sure didn’t work on Patrick Mahomes as he was positioned on the 2019 cover in October but he was ranked the best QB in the NFL by SportingNews.com. They said of Mahomes:

 

“The reigning league MVP is seeing some personnel change around him, but his play last season proved how much he can elevate his backs, receivers and tight ends. Mahomes has raised the standard for all young guns coming into the league.”

 

When it comes to this game against the Tennessee Titans, many think it will be a matter of whether or not the Chiefs defense can slow the Titans RB Derrick Henry down enough for the Chiefs to outscore them. However, Brian Baldinger thinks it’s more a matter of whether or not the Titans defensive backs can keep up with the Chiefs speedsters and the arm of Patrick Mahomes:

 

 

Some, including myself, are predicting that Andy Reid will choose to receive the ball if the Chiefs win the toss when they usually choose to defer. That’s because Reid might want to get out in front of the Titans and force them to play from behind asap. Finally, finally, finally… I think we’ll see Andy Reid keep his foot on the accelerator of his offensive juggernaut if he is able to get the lead… and his defense is not too worn out from defending the run. If it comes down to a game of: the Chiefs defending the against the Titans passing game, the Chiefs will have a decided advantage, as long as they are playing from a sizable lead. I have serious doubts that a Ryan Tannehill led offense can come from behind using passing as their primary weapon.

 

One major difference in this game vs the Week 10 contest in Nashville is the defensive line. Here’s the snaps the DL had one week ago vs the Texans:

 

 

It should be pointed out that this information comes from outsiders.com and they missed any of the snaps by Terrell Suggs who should play a major role today. Now, compare these players and snaps to the ones who played in Week 10:

 

 

The loss of Joey Ivie isn’t going to hurt. The loss of Emmanuel Ogbah will. However, Mike Pennel was famously inactive that day and Alex Okafor was already out. The addition of Terrell Suggs, who has played approximately 64% of the defensive snaps so far, should help tremendously when you consider he is the replacement for Ivie and/or Ogbah.

 

On the offensive side of the ball, the Chiefs #5 passing attack will offer so much more than the Titans #24 ranked defensive backfield can handle.

 

[Note: the Chiefs offense has also progressed late in the season and might be considered the best in the NFL at this point, certainly the best in the playoffs right now, considerably the best this Titans defensive DBs have ever faced.]

 

Here’s an insider’s take on one of the Chiefs offensive sets, by Turron Davenport, who is the lead editor and reporter for USA Today’s covering the Eagles:

 

 

Here’s a clearer picture of the Titans defensive setup against this Chiefs offensive setup as taken from Turron Davenport’s example:

 

 

In the event that Patrick Mahomes doesn’t go to his #1 target, Demarcus Robinson (#11) on a Smash route (down and out), all of his WRs have alternate routes they can run depending on the direction the defender turns/takes. As Davenport has stated, the best option is to come back across the field to Kelce, who has certainly given the defender his wiggle move and headed up field away from the LB or Safeties, which Mahomes has looked off by focusing on Robinson. In blue below, are the alternate routes each receiver could take:

 

 

Out of this formation package, the Chiefs WRs run a number of “if then” scenarios:

 

    • If Kelce (87) reads the CB breaking outside, he can turn it up field.
    • If DWill (RB34) sees the S/LB coming free on a blitz, he can block for Mahomes or he can also run a screen-right, then Watkins (14) blocks for him.
    • If RB34 runs his curl just beyond the line of scrimmage he can also turn and stay flat in either direction.
    • If RB34 lines up on the opposite side of Mahomes forcing Titans 54 or 26 to flip sides of the field, it opens up a new set of play possibilities.
    • If Hill (10) is running a post down the middle and reads the S staying too deep he can break it off and come back to Mahomes in the middle deep part of the field. However, in this set the idea is for him to draw the Safeties to him.
    • If Robinson (11) a down and out slant but if he sees the S covering over the top to deep in the zone, he can break it off to the outside which we’ve seen him do well so many times, especially if Mahomes escapes the pocket to his right.
    • If Watkins 14 sees the CB breaking too deep in his zone, he can turn his route out to the sidelines.

There are several receivers that Mahomes can turn to on the right side of the field and by keeping his gaze over there early, can draw a Safety to that side of the field leaving their CB isolated on Kelce, who Mahomes can hit for a large gain off of this Zone Coverage set by the Titans.

 

What sets Mahomes apart from so many other QBs is his instantaneous ability to read a D-back’s moves and tendencies within a fraction of a second then make up his mind and go. That’s why you’ll sometimes see him motion to one of his WRs right after an unsuccessful play is over, as if to say that he thought they would take their route in a different direction, based upon the movement of the D-back covering them.

 

If the Titans begin to pull another DB/LB over to help cover Kelce, Mahomes will have several one-on-one options on the other side of the field, off of this offensive set. If the Chiefs  front five OL can handle a blitzer, it opens up a lot of deep routes resulting in huge gains.

 

We’ve already seen most of these optional routes by the Chiefs receivers and when they execute them well, the production is there. We’ll see this set with three WRs to one side and Kelce positioned wide to the opposite side. Look for it, and the way the Titans decide to cover it. That will tell you a lot about how they’re going to play: straight man, man-free, combo-man, the Nickel, or zone.

 

Game Time Weather

I’ve been keeping track of the projected temperature for Sunday at 2:00 PM for the past few days and it has regressed to lower and lower numbers. It started out in the low 20s and now sits at 18° for the beginning of the game. It should remain there until around 5:00 PM when it begins an even lower trend, dropping to 16° by the end of the game. However, you’ll also notice that the wind chill will make it feel like it’s around 5° at the start of the game. Don’t forget that the organization installed a heating system under the field several years ago to keep the grass from freezing… and it also helps players during the game a little bit. [Note: 64129 is the zip code for Arrowhead Stadium.]

 

 

With Reid and Bieniemy running this offense, and Spagnuolo and his revved up resources on Defense, I’m going with Chiefs 41 – Titans 21. Now, let’s bring home the Lamar Hunt trophy!

 

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

 

 

If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to join the Discussion, [GO HERE.](http://arrowheadone.com/AFC Conference Championship: Battle for the Lamar Hunt Trophy/#disqus_thread)