AFC West: Raiders Go “Leased” Mode

You can always count on the Jokeland Raiders for a good one. You have to admit, they’re half-way entertaining… sometimes. It looks like they’re finally going to get a dealio done with running back Marshawn Lynch — aka Beast Mode — as well as a deal with the Seattle Seahawks, who still own the rights to Lynch. So, it’s time to evaluate what it means to the AFC West and more importantly the Kansas City Chiefs.

Thinking About the Trade

The knee jerk reaction to this trade might be “uh-oh, the Raiders just got a lot better” when the reality is, they may have made a deal with the devil for a player that eventually may be referred to as “Least Mode.” The contract with the Raiders looks to be a one-year deal so Oakland is not planning for the future when you consider their dalliance with this retired-unretired-err-soon-to-be-unretired running back: thus, “Leased-Mode.” I don’t want to typify this trade as being totally insignificant but, it’s likely to be somewhere between that and somewhat helpful.

If you’re talking to a Raiders fan, they may be thinking they just added the last piece they need to make it to the Super Bowl and win it all. Or not. At JustBlogbaby.com Nick Stavrakis says,

“By default, Lynch fits with this roster for no bigger reason than necessity. The current backs on Oakland’s roster are Taiwan Jones, DeAndre Washington, and Jalen Richard. No disrespect to those guys, but that isn’t the cream of the crop when it comes to tailbacks… Lynch would be an exciting addition on paper for an already explosive offense.”

The Raiders are counting on Marshawn Lynch to be the same smash mouth red zone monster he has been in years past… as in three years past. It wasn’t last year… he was “retired.” It wasn’t the year before that… he was not very good. Right, it was the year before that. So, the question will remain, can Lynch still produce like he used to… until he comes back and does it all over again. Stavrakis also said,

“Lynch has the name, but he will be 31 years old in a month. Productive backs over the age of 30 are few and far between. He also just had a year off from football, which means a year off of full, brutal contact. That is a year in which Beast Mode could have been lounging on his couch eating Skittles. Jokes aside, by signing Lynch, you cannot be positive of the playing condition he will be in. Oakland would also have to ask themselves how much can they truly expect from Lynch. Before retiring last year, he finished with just over 400 yards in 2015 with a 3.8 average/carry. Is it realistic to think he can be the 1,000-yard rusher he once was? The odds would certainly be against him, especially due to the fact two of the league’s top defenses play in Oakland’s division with regard to Kansas City and Denver.

To be fair, Oakland has a top ten offensive line and pairing him with QB Derek Carr, WR Michael Crabtree, and WR Amare Cooper might sound like the makings of a superior offense. However, they could only muster total 23 points vs. the Chiefs in two games in 2016 so I’m not sure how much help Lynch would be. You see, the Raiders had a very good back last year named Latavius Murray who recently left for Minnesota and Murray had 2,350 all-purpose yards in the past two years so the Raiders may end up with a “gaping hole” in the backfield instead, as Stavrakis put it.

Lynch does fit the Oakland Raiders mold of mean brute. However, when you consider that Marshawn Lynch left the game with a sports hernia… the best that Oakland can expect is for Lynch to be a presence in the red zone. By presence, I mean, be more of a decoy and an occasional goal line penetrator. The trade is not official yet but a deal may have a big effect on the draft in two weeks.

We know the Raiders aren’t going to be taking an offensive lineman or a quarterback but they may have been in the market for a running back but may suspend the idea of taking a running back in the first round and take a defensive player instead.

Thinking About the Denver Broncos

The Denver Broncos need to upgrade their offensive line to the degree that you could say they are “desperate” to upgrade that position. Christian McCaffrey visited Denver on Friday and if he was available when the Broncos pick at #20, GM John Elway may not be able to resist pulling the trigger on bringing in the all-star running back whose father played for them from 1995 to 2003. You can certainly understand Christian wanting to go there because he has memories of running in his football gear as a child down on the mile-high field. Whether the Broncos go for McCaffrey or take an offensive lineman, they will likely not be swayed by Oakland’s move to sign Lynch. If they are, they may end up drafting defensive line help.

Thinking About the San Diego Chargers

The San Diego Chargers may benefit from needing help on defense because this draft is loaded with defensive playmakers early in the draft. By picking at the 7th spot in this draft, the Chargers will get a top talent who should start on day one and if that’s a defensive player like Safety Jamaal Adams or Milik Hooker, not only will their pass defense get better but they should be able to deal with whatever Marshawn Lynch has left in the tank.

Thinking About the Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs are in a position to take the best player available, or you could say, their-most-needed-player-in-one-year, in the first round so that could be an ILB or a NT or a QB… we don’t know for sure. If you’re considering what the Marshawn Lynch trade really means for Oakland, it might improve their play-action so… another top rated cornerback could be in the cards for K.C..

I’m a firm believer that you plan so that you can win your division first and foremost. Once that’s done, you’re in the playoffs. Now that the Chiefs have climbed that mountain, they need to plan to stay there. I don’t want to beat a dead horse but… at ESPN, 9 of the top 14 prospects play defense…  at CBS Sports, 10 of the top 14 prospects play defense… at DraftTek, 8 of the top 12 play defense. Why is that important? Because if the number of prospects who play offensive or defensive in the first 26 picks is balanced… and most of the top 10-to-14 teams pick defensive players… the Chiefs should have their pick of a good offensive talent… or defensive talent… at pick #27. Now, that’s important because if you take wide receivers out of the equation — because I am assuming the Chiefs are not looking for another WR unless it’s a guy like John Ross or Mike Williams — then the rest of their draft will be dominated by defensive talent. So, they will likely be pinning their hopes on acquiring a good offensive talent in the first three rounds. At best.

So, I think the Oakland Raiders trading for Marshawn Lynch will not affect the way the Chiefs prepare, perform or pick, come draft day. By signing him to a one-year contract they’re essentially leasing a once-effective player who may end up being more of a problem than he’s worth. However, we’ve come to expect as much from that franchise. Lastly, if the Raiders start out the 2017 season by going 5-and-5 or 4-and-6… and if Lynch is not playing well… you can expect them to go shopping for a free agent running back and… leased-mode will become released mode.