Another Look At: “Chiefs: 13 Too Bold Predictions”

Another Look At: “Chiefs: 13 Too Bold Predictions”  — Back in August, Price Carter (who now writes for ArrowheadLive – @priceacarter) wrote the following piece for AO called: “Chiefs: 13 Too Bold Predictions” about the Kansas City Chiefs 2020 season. Here’s a look back at that piece with my own take — in Bold and in Red — about each of his projections.

– As of today, there are exactly 13 days until the Chiefs and Texans face one another in the NFL Season opener. In honor of that, I have put together my 13 most spicy and bold Chiefs predictions, but first: The Rules: for a prediction to be bold and spicy it needs to be something that would be considered surprising or unpredictable. It’s not a spicy take to say Clyde Edwards-Helaire will contend for rookie of the year. Literally any fantasy football site can tell you that. Likewise, these predictions need to be something that could feasibly happen this season. No, I don’t think the Chiefs will trade for Lamar Jackson and Aaron Rodgers to run the first ever 3 QB offense. If I get one or maybe two predictions right it will be a real accomplishment. Because football is a game played with an oddly shaped ball. Sometimes, weird things just happen in the game of football that nobody could have seen coming. 

Lastly, If you came to this article hoping to see “13 amazing things the Chiefs will accomplish” you might want to hang up the pom-poms. Not all of these predictions are positives. Last year, if I’d told you that Mahomes, Fischer, Hill, Clark and Chris Jones all missed multiple games you’d probably ask me if we at least got a top 10 draft pick out of the season and instead it ended in Miami.

So without further adieu…

The entire off-season the Texans have heard non-stop about how terrible their coach is for trading DeAndre Hopkins and how embarrassing it is that they blew a 24 point lead. Throw in the fact that Deshaun Watson feels like he has something to prove against Mahomes there’s a real narrative to this game. The Texans have a very deep receiving core now with Will Fuller, Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb and they have two strong receiving running backs with Duke Johnson and David Johnson. Let’s also not forget that the Chiefs will be without Bashaud Breeland and Mike Pennel for this game. If this game was in week 6 I’d probably pick the Chiefs but week 1 means J.J Watt and Will Fuller might actually be healthy too. It doesn’t help that the Chiefs will only have 16,000 fans for their home field advantage as well. On top of all that this the first season without pre-season football for the starters so some weird, sloppy errors could be the difference in this game.

The Chiefs not only didn’t lose on opening night, they made the Texans look bad. I know that’s hard to do these days, perhaps the Chiefs victory on opening night, 34-to-20, was a big part of their downfall.

He’s been the talk of camp, Robinson is the most tenured member of the Chiefs receiving core, he has a wealth of experience within the offense and has great rapport with Mahomes. Last year, Robinson had a career high in yards with 449, and that was in a season that saw both Tyreek Hill and Sammy Watkins miss some games. 750 yards for reference would be more yards than Watkins has posted with the Chiefs or the Rams. Robinson has the tools needed to be a breakout receiver. With the development of Mecole Hardman, Robinson could feast in single coverage all season long. Teams are terrified of the Chiefs vertically with all of their speed Robinson could be the underneath threat that racks up the yards. 

Demarcus Robinson finished with 466 receiving yards in 2020 and depending on whether or not the Chiefs draft a WR in the 2021 draft, it’s hard to say if he’ll get an invitation back to K.C..

Look, nobody wants to play for the Jaguars this year including Fournette. He has wanted out of Jacksonville for the past few years and the Jags have looked to move on from him. Now before “running backs don’t matter” twitter comes breaking down my door just hear me out. The Jags will likely get nothing for Fournette in the way of compensatory picks if they let him walk to free agency. Let’s say Brett Veach can send a future 6th round pick to Jacksonville to save some wear and tear on Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s body you’d have to consider it? Maybe the Jags could never stomach getting a 6th round pick for the guy they drafted ahead of Mahomes, but it’s better than nothing which is what they stand to get presently. With Darwin Thompson a healthy scratch in a game the Chiefs start Edwards-Elarire, Darrell Williams and Fournette causing Ed Orgeron to be invited to bang the celebratory drum for the opening ceremony at Arrowhead.

Not only did K.C. not sign Fournette, he went to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and helped them beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.

 

Of all my spicy predictions this might be the most palatable considering Mahomes has already done absurd things. He broke out a left handed pass down 10 points in the 4th quarter against a division rival and he completed his no look pass against a top rated Ravens’ defense in 2018. So it seems like there is no situation that Mahomes fears. I’m envisioning Tyreek pre-snap motion into a screen that breaks big for a touchdown. Mahomes of course will instantly be ridiculed by Skip Bayless who “likes his quarterbacks to be boring.” 

Unless I missed it, Patrick Mahomes did not throw a behind the back pass and completion this year.

There’s not enough adjectives to describe how awesome Andy Reid has made the Chiefs within the division. Truly the only adjective that matters is dominant. The Chiefs just dominate their division like clock work. The fact that this is considered a spicy prediction is a testament to Andy and his excellence. I like what all 3 AFC West teams did in the draft and in free agency. The Broncos made some savvy trades and bolstered their offense. Chargers instantly upgraded their offense by parting ways with Melvin Gordon and Phillip Rivers. Not to mention signing Chris Harris Jr. and a fully healthy Derwin James. The Raiders offense got more dynamic as well with the addition of Henry Ruggs. Who knows how it will happen, maybe Tyrod won’t give the Chiefs defense 3 picks each game, maybe Drew Lock has the goods and goes blow to blow with Mahomes. Maybe the Raiders will….. who are we kidding they aren’t beating the Chiefs this year. 

The Chiefs did indeed lose to the Las Vegas Raiders in Arrowhead Stadium in Week 5, 40-to-32.

 

Thornhill really started to develop toward the end of the season, he has terrific closing speed and can make some great on-the-ball plays as well. Playing alongside Tyrann Mathieu helps Thornhill develop into a true ballhawk that shuts down the deep part of the field. He gets to prey upon young quarterbacks in the division which leads to 6 interceptions and a few touchdown returns as well.

Juan Thornhill made a big step coming back from an ACL injury and had a great rookie campaign in 2019 collecting 58 tackles, 3 INTs — 1 was a pick-6 — plus five passes defensed (PDs), based upon 28 targets and an opponent’s passer rating of just 43.0. BTW, that’s phenomenal. However, Thornhill did not make the Pro Bowl in the 2020 season.

Steve Spagnuolo has a type, he likes his defensive linemen tall, lean and long. None of these things describe Breeland Speaks. After the first two seasons of his career being more or less a lost cause in Kansas City this is a make it or break it year for him. The Chiefs have a ton of depth along the defensive line and Speaks could be the odd man out. It would make sense for the Chiefs to get some value out of Speaks rather than cutting him. The Giants would be a great team for Speaks with lots of opportunity to play. 

Yikes… Breeland Speaks didn’t even make the team in 2020. He was cut on September 5th and spent time on three other team’s rosters in 2020 including: the Raiders, Cowboys and Giants.

In 2018 Demetrius Harris had 3 touchdowns in Mahomes’ campaign to 50 touchdowns. Any Chiefs fan can tell you that Harris was a less than ideal second tight end, he was very inconsistent especially catching the ball. Seals-Jones might be the best backup tight end the Chiefs have had in Andy Reid’s tenure. The Chiefs utilize a lot of 2 tight end sets which creates a great opportunity for Ricky, especially in the red zone. With the multitude of weapons Kansas City has on offense, Seals- Jones will present a defense with too many options for them to cover. Pencil the Chiefs tight end for 7 touchdowns. 

TE Ricky Seals-Jones was targeted once in the 2020 season with zero catches. It would not be a stretch to say RSJ was a complete waste of time, much less a failure in the Red Zone… or any zone for that matter.

Well I should give credit to Jack Christiansen back in 1953 as well, both he and Hester hold the single season punt return touchdown record. In 2020 Mecole Hardman will return 5 punts for touchdowns, which would be 5 more than he did in 2019. One of the best kept secrets to the Chiefs Super Bowl win was their perfection on special teams: Dave Toub is a gem. He has the ability to turn sub par returners into good special teams weapons. We know Hardman has the skills to be an elite athlete on offense. In 2020 he breaks out as an elite all-pro return man.

For many Chiefs fans, Mecole Hardman’s kick returns were a fantasy land journey video game character who dies… and I’m not talking about Fantasy Football either. Hardman had one Punt Return TD, but usually left most scratching their heads.

Virtually everything went perfect for the Ravens last year: little to no injuries, incredibly weak division, strong defensive performance and Lamar Jackson caught the league sleeping. All of those things are highly unlikely to happen again. The Steelers went 8-8, with a guy named Duck winning prime time games for them. Mike Tomlin truly showed why he is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Pittsburgh had an elite defense last year to carry it to 8-8, Minkah Fitzpatrick and T.J. Watt emerged as a superstars. Here’s to thinking Ben Roethlisberger has one more good season in that arm. If the offense can stay healthy the real threat to the the Chiefs #runitback tour is the Steelers.

Nope, not the Ravnes, or the Steelers… now the Steelers did win the AFC North Division but, it was the Cleveland Browns who came out smelling like a rose in 2020. Plus, when you are beaten 48-to-37 (as Pittsburgh was by the Browns in their Wild Card game), it’s hard to say you are the biggest threat in the AFC North, especially moving forward.

First off, let me say that I truly hope this prediction is incorrect. All Eric Bieniemy has done in his tenure as an offensive coordinator is have the number one offense, league MVP and earn a Super Bowl ring. Yet somehow teams continue to hire wide receivers coaches and people who had a cup of coffee with Sean McVay over him. Not to mention the league had added the “Rooney Rule” to promote even more diversity within the head coaching roles. Spags has been a head coach before, despite it being a colossal failure, but if he has another successful season in Kansas City it’s possible he could be in line for another opportunity as a head coach. It would be very on brand for the NFL owners to add to the “Rooney rule” and still not hire one of the most successful coordinators in the league. 

Now that the Chiefs Defense was handled like a rag doll in the rain, it’s doubtful Steve Spagnuolo will be getting any calls from teams who are looking for a Head Coach in 2022. With Eric Bieniemy being passed over once again, it’s not likely he’s going to get many calls next year either.

I have no idea what cornerback personally hurt Brett Veach, maybe a CB took his girlfriend in college, but make no doubt about it, the Chiefs do not value corners like other teams do. They have continually had opportunities to draft, trade and sign corners and instead they add lower level names on cheap deals, draft them late or let them walk into free agency. The Chiefs have popped lots of champagne this off-season for extensions for their core of talent. Ward is the next in line to receive a deal and there’s been virtually no talk of it. Not too mention the likelihood of the cap being reduced in 2021. Ward could be a candidate to be traded to another team for value. Chiefs could get some draft capital before he becomes a restricted free agent in 2021. That way they could free up some cap space and flexibility moving forward. 

Nope, Wards wasn’t traded and it’s hard to project the Chiefs will want to replace him in 2021 as well.

You didn’t honestly think you were getting out of here without one total Chiefs homer prediction did you? Picking the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl is not a bold prediction, but predicting them to go 16-0 is. Every year it’s a story with the former Super Bowl Champion. Can they go undefeated? This year should be no different. The Chiefs have the best QB in the league who is still getting better, a dominant offense, a defense that’s improving and returning all of it’s coaching staff. What team is better equipped to handle the pandemic? In times of uncertainty consistency is key. The Chiefs have been a model of just that this off-season. Kansas City goes back to back and is the second team ever to have a perfect season and postseason (that is… if they don’t lose to the Texans in game one… 13 days from now… hehe).

The Chiefs didn’t do much in “Dominant Fashion” during the 2020 season… except for Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes of course. In the Chiefs last 7 games of the regular season, their average margin of victory was 3.4 points per game. That’s not what I’d call dominant.

As Price stated above, in “The Rules: for a prediction to be bold and spicy it needs to be something that would be considered surprising or unpredictable.” I like Bold and Spicy predictions… I just wish the Raiders beating the Chiefs was not the only one to come true.

Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

If you are viewing this in Apple News and would like to join the Discussion, [GO HERE.](http://arrowheadone.com/chiefs-13-too-bold-predictions/#disqus_thread)