Are The 2022 Bills Beatable? – by Phillip Maxwell

Historic matchups between the Bills and Chiefs abound. 2021’s Division Play-off win was just one of them.

Are The 2022 Bills Beatable? – by Phillip Maxwell

Most of the sports world “talking heads” seem to think not.

The 2021 Buffalo Bills were the LVI Super Bowl Champions. Well, had the Kansas City Chiefs not somehow dug into their bag of tricks and pulled off the impossible, that statement would most likely have been confirmed.

Peeking Backwards

The Bills had that divisional playoff game against the Chiefs in the bag. Buffalo scored what appeared to be the game-winning Touchdown to take a 3-point lead, leaving only mere seconds on the clock.

For the Chiefs to have any shot at all, it would require a 44-yard Hail Mary “of sorts” to get within FG range and pull off a miracle with a measly 13 seconds left on the clock.

If it had been 2015, the Chiefs would have been staring at those 13 seconds with zero timeouts. Fortunately for Chief fans around the globe, Andy Reid had been studying his “Clock Management for Dummies” handbook over the intervening years. So in the 2021 Divisional game, when they needed them the most, the Chiefs found themselves with two timeouts to work with as the results.

A 19-yard pickup by Tyreek Hill and a 25-yard reception by Travis Kelce up the seam and Booya!! The Chiefs were in Field Goal range. Harrison Butker, who, after missing a FG and a PA earlier in the game, composed himself to hit a 49-yard FG to force overtime……..ALL THIS in 13 seconds.

Then, of course, the Chiefs win the coin toss in overtime, and the rest is history. Did the best team win that day? Bills fans would say no way in Hades did the best team win that day. Many non-Bill fans would also agree. Does the best team always win? Nope. Had the Bills won that infamous coin toss, history would have been re-written, as it became clear that the winner of that game was coming down to whoever had the ball last.

Both offenses were ripping through each other’s defenses, but the significant difference, as I saw it, was the Bills were making it look easy against a porous Chiefs secondary. Not just the secondary, the Bills were having their way with the middle…..passing, running, scrambling…..the middle seemed to be theirs all game long. Whereas the Chiefs were fighting tooth and nail for every score, relying on the heroics of the Big 3(Mahomes, Kelce, and Hill).

Had the Bills advanced to the AFC Championship game, it would have been they who would be representing the AFC in the LVI Super Bowl after defeating the Bengals in the AFCCG. I am also confident they would have beaten the Rams in Super Bowl LVI.

Those are my opinions; of course, one will never know.

The Chiefs have enjoyed the luxury of playing Buffalo in the safe confines of Arrowhead Stadium the last two times they have met in the playoffs, something I fear won’t be the case in 2022. It is odd but keep in mind the QBs do not go up against each other. They pit themselves against the opponent’s defense!

Strength of Schedule and Projected SoS

There is Strength of Schedule based on 2021 standings, and then there is Projected Strength of Schedule based on 2022’s projected win-loss totals.

A great example of this is the Denver Broncos. The Chiefs face the Broncos twice each season. The current losing streak of the Broncos stands at 12. In 2021, the Broncos finished 7-12 and were swept by the Chiefs. In 2022, the Broncos are projected to finish with an 11-6 record and will split the two games with the Chiefs.

On your basic Strength of Schedule, the Chiefs are sitting at the 5th most demanding schedule while the Bills are sitting #12. Also, based on the Projected Strength of Schedule, the Chiefs are at #1 with the hardest Projected schedule in the NFL, whereas the Bills are sitting at #15……Yeah, you read that right.

Based on this season’s projected totals, the Bills have much easier odds at obtaining the #1 seeding over the Chiefs, something that can play an enormous role in a team’s ability to reach the Super Bowl.

In the offseason, the Bills have had a few notable key losses over the offseason, such as G Daryl Williams, DE Mario Addison, WR Cole Beasley, and DB Levi Wallace. However, those player departures are nothing like the hit the Chiefs have taken with key losses such as WR Tyreek Hill, S Tyrann Mathieu, DB Charvarius Ward, DE Melvin Ingram, and WR Byron Pringle–I mean, OUCH!

Buffalo didn’t have an all-pro secondary to begin with, so the loss of Wallace could hurt them in 2022. As any Chiefs fan will attest, Cole Beasley always seemed to be at the right place at the right time when Buffalo needed to move the sticks on a third and long, so that could be a concern for Buffalo until they find the right niche. As far as Addison, the Bills brought in Von Miller, who will quickly fill that void.

All in all, the Bills managed to keep their main core intact and even improve in some areas. The Chiefs, on the other hand, did not keep their main core intact, quite the contrary. With the Chiefs’ acquisitions, they did get younger, faster, and more physical. It remains to be seen whether the roster has improved or has taken a step back.

I believe the Chiefs have gotten better at Safety, with Juan Thornhill starting over Sorenson and Justin Reid starting over Mathieu. The Change appears to be a strong move. Adding Bryan Cook to the Safety group enhances the strength of the back-end of the defense. Coincidentally, both Sorenson and Mathieu have moved on to the Saints. I have a gut feeling the hard-hitting and sure-handed tackling duo of Thornhill/ Reid will rock the backfield. The same goes with the maturing of the LB lineup and the addition of this year’s draft selections. Despite drafting DE George Karlaftis in round one of the 2022 Draft, more players, especially in improving the pass rush. The pass rush was abysmal in 2021. Karlaftis cannot possibly be the only answer for the Defensive Line.

On offense, I think this unit is going to be high flying as H-E double toothpicks! The loss of Tyreek’s explosiveness will be missed.

However, the vast array of talented receivers provide options at Patrick’s disposal far more profound than previously existed on the roster. In addition, I think the aerial game is going to be a thing of beauty.

A Nod to the Bills Advantage, 2022

Either way, if Buffalo manages to get a lock on that AFC #1 seed, they will be one heck of a difficult out.

Phillip Maxwell