ArrowheadOne: Initial Roster Outlook

By David Bell and Laddie Morse

David Bell and I have put together our first roster projection based on what we know has happened in Chiefs Training camp, before the pads come on, which just so happens to be today, Tuesday, August 3. First, there are some dates you need to know that are coming up soon:

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Chiefs 53-man roster projection

Cut dates:

·        85 players on August 17

·        80 players on August 24

·        53 players on August 31

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These projections are based upon things that we agree upon about the talent, and what they bring to the table for 2021. Keep in mind, this is a work in progress and is… about a work in progress.

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Offense (25)

Quarterbacks (2)

Patrick Mahomes, Chad Henne

There are two other QB’s on the roster, Shane Buechele and Anthony Gordon, so one will be selected for the PS.

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Running backs (3)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Darrel Williams, Jerrick McKinnon

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (Breakout year)

Darrel Williams – Earned and proved his value

Jerrick McKinnon – Comes with talent and experience and we’ve seen great stuff from camp. Andy Reid on McKinnon:

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“He’s experienced. He’s been doing this a while and he does it well. I mean, these were passing camps more than running camps, but he sure has a nice feel of the passing game and I look forward to giving him the whole package once we get up there and let’s see what he can do once we get playing real football.”

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I may be even higher on Jerrick McKinnon than David. His upside may gain him an equal number of snaps this year as Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He’s more than a replacement for Damien Williams who ran a 4.45 40 yard dash. McKinnon not only has 4.41 speed but is that one-cut kind of runner Reid cherishes.

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Fullbacks (1): Mike Burton

Replaces Anthony Sherman who will be missed. He is experienced, versatile, a special teams major contributor. Added by Veach as a F/A. However, if Reid is satisfied with Fortson and Gray, and thinks they could cover the H-Back/FB role, then Burton may be expendable which allows K.C. keep perhaps an 11th OL.

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Wide Receivers (6)

#1 Tyreek Hill, #2 Mecole Hardman, Byron Pringle, Antonio Callaway, Cornell Powell, Jody Fortson (Hybrid TE/WR)

Tyreek Hill is a given. Mecole Hardman is having an explosive, more mature camp. If there is a surprise, it will be with Pringle or Robinson and who starts as the third WR. I also think one could be part of a trade. Cornell Powell is going to emerge during the season and Fortson is again making noise in camp for the 3rd season in a row. For today’s effort, a surprise with the group earns a spot.

At the moment that choice is Jody Fortson, in which case a veteran is going to depart and for the first version of a predicted roster, we are going to place Jody Fortson as one of the retained WR’s due to his versatility to play TE as well. Fortson’s wingspan and length, both of which are metrics you cannot coached. The WR group has plenty of speed. Antonio Callaway rounds out the list of 6 players to make the roster.

Keeping Byron Pringle as opposed to Demarcus Robinson provides another type of talent to the mix. We also see the skillset that Cornell Powell brings to the group. It will earn him a role as a rookie contributor as this season ages.

PS Candidates: Gehrig Dieter, Darrius Shepherd, Marcus Kemp, Daurice Fountain, Chad Williams.

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Tight Ends (3)

Travis Kelce, Blake Bell, Noah Gray

Note: Fortson is 6-foot-6, 230 lbs., and is listed as a hybrid TE/WR, listed above

Nick Keizer (PS)

Travis Kelce is the premiere and historic TE, bar none. Blake Bell gives the solid blocking TE with hands. Noah Gray is the TE with the versatility Reid loves, which means he can also play the H-Back role. Nick Keizer is dinged up so that make Fortson more probable. Because Fortson is a designated hybrid, the Chiefs are essentially keeping 4 via that mechanism while Nick Keizer goes on the PS.

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Offensive Linemen (10)

Starters: LT Orlando Brown Jr., LG Joe Thuney, C Creed Humphrey, RG Trey Smith, RT Mike Remmers

Backups: OG/OC Nick Allegretti, SW/T Lucas Niang, OC/OG Austin Blythe, OG/OT Andrew Wylie, OG Laurent Duvernay-Tardif.

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Kyle Long may start the season on the PUP list, but when he comes off, someone will have to move to the PS or get traded. We are somewhat torn about adding LDT to the active roster, but do so here because others could logically be retained on the 16-man PS. This is a view of things with the thought that LDT will not win the starting ROG job. We think LDT could end up being trade bait (if he waives his no-trade clause) or, because he doesn’t win back to a starting role, and then another option is that he could decide to retire (and return to caring for patience).

With 10 OL though, we cover all the bases and keep most of the OL in camp. The way that might work otherwise is that the Chiefs could expose Durant and Allegretti on the PS. The Chiefs have gone into the season with 9 before, but we know where that got them last year and with a 17 game regular season schedule, we’re anticipating more OL will be kept. What we’re seeing in camp, is Humphrey and Smith earning their starting roles. Austin Blythe is not a required component, a great addition, but is relegated here to interior line depth. The point is, he could also be placed on the PS, and/or traded, whichever fits where Veach ends up going with the roster.

PS and/or PUP: Kyle Long (PUP), Darryl Williams (PS), Prince Tega Wanogho (PS), Wyatt Miller (PS), and Yasir Durant (PS).

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Note: There are 16 PS players for each team, and 6 of those can be veterans, regardless of accrued NFL time (6 games on the Active Roster = an accrued NFL year). The thought that the Chiefs won’t again face the loss of solid personnel to field as they did in 2020 is the frame of reference for this outlook. On this 90 man roster are several developmental players who have promise.

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All of the above provides Reid, Bieniemy, and Heck a very deep pool of OL players with significant versatility and retains almost every line member on the current camp roster. Keeping Allegretti — a versatile IOL piece — Yasir Durant and Williams are all also important players to keep.

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Remmers, LDT, and Blythe are all in the 30 plus age range (Kyle Long is in that range too), but keeping as many as possible, one way or another, has got to be part of how the Chiefs protect their OL assets (or they end up using them in trade scenarios). Injury replacement is facilitated without weakening play availability.

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Trade Bait

For trade considerations, we have significant personnel who could help Veach bring talent to the team that strengthens a particular — perhaps weaker — position group. Other teams in the NFL, as camps roll forward and the preseason games commence, will face a need to fill a roster spot as injury claims victims. Dealign with the possibility of injuries to players up front has been something GM Brett Veach has spent all offseason planning against, so, let’s pray that this is not an experience in 2021 for the Chiefs. In the meantime, These players could be considered trade bait:

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LDT – but he’d have to waive his no-trade clause which is part of his contract. However, Ryan Tracy seems to think LDT has no trade value. We disagree.

Austin Blythe – if Blythe came to K.C. with the promise of a starting role (which doesn’t sound like the Chiefs) then he could be happy with a trade that allows him to play a lead role on a team needing. a starting Center.

Nick Allegretti – It’s hard ot see the Chiefs thinking they could do without their 2019 7th rounder because he’s developed nicely and has played well when called into action (barring SB LIV).

The Goal – is likely to add an experienced veteran CB with a trade. The Chiefs are so deep along the OL now, trading one of them may be the best way to keep from losing OL talent off the PS, so, they might as well make a trade, even though that could end up requiring multiple parts (including a low round future draft pick) to stabilize the CB position.

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Needless to say, the OL has 16 players currently in camp and we have to keep in mind that Kyle Long will return at the end of pre-season or early in the season. 

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Honorable Mention: Darryl Williams who is getting snaps at Center early in camp. So what the Chiefs can do is put Long on the PUP, thus protecting him and utilizing more of the OL group.

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Defense (25)

Defensive Tackles (4)

Chris Jones (DE/DT), Jarran Reed, Derrick Nnadi, Tershawn Wharton

PS: Khalen Saunders

This gives the Chiefs four solid options for the IDL. Adding Reed was a top move for Brett Veach this offseason. Saunders was unimpressive in 2020, but is having a good camp. However, he may not make the roster at all. Signing Jarran Reed had to displace someone at DT, it looks like that may be Saunders. If Khalen Saunders is kept on the 53 man squad, then Tim Ward (below) will likely go to the PS.

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Defensive Ends (6)

Frank Clark, Alex Okafor, Taco Charlton, Mike Danna, Joshua Kaindoh, Tim Ward

PS: Wyatt Miller

Clark will play all of 2021 unless suspended by the team or the NFL, which seems highly unlikely this season. Kaindoh is the player we want to really see develop, but that is likely a story that unfolds in 2022. Tim Ward, who really played well in week 17 of 2020, has the opportunity to advance his claim and we anticipate Taco Charlton emerging, finally, and breaking out in 2021.

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Linebackers (5)

Anthony Hitchens, Willie Gay, Nick Bolton, Ben Niemann, Darius Harris

PS: Omari Cobb, Dorian O’Daniel, Riley Cole

The Chiefs have kept 6 LBs before. We have it as 5 currently, which Dorian O’Daniel off, he’s someone who could be the 6th LB due to Toub’s influence and DoD’s Special Teams ability. We feel pretty good that Harris finally breaks through and emerges to the 53 man roster in 2021. Hitch, Gay, and Bolton will become the mainstays for the LB group. Riley Cole might surprise us all, but he is retained to the PS unless he shines so bright he can’t be kept off the roster. 

Nick Bolton will serve Hitchens #2 and the 3rd LB in the base. Both Bolton and Gay had INTs of Mahomes on Monday, which bodes well for the LBs. Niemann will spot in, but Bolton should overtake him during the season. Bolton is the future of that position and that transition will likely take place as the season progresses. Both of us are convinced that 2021 will be a breakout year for Willie Gay Jr..

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Cornerbacks (6)

Charvarius Ward, L’Jarius Sneed, Rashad Fenton, Deandre Baker, Mike Hughes, BoPete Keyes

PS: Chris Lammons

With so much focus on the nickel and dime coverages, many articles at here at ArrowheadOne have tried to solve this issue by keeping, Hughes, and Keyes as part of a 6 CB grouping. Six are kept and Keyes could end up on practice squad if they only keep 5 CBs, but here we go with 6. So far, Mike Hughes and Deandre Baker are having good camps, so it would seem less likely that they are moved and Keyes is kept.

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Note: Laddie is happy with the current state of the CB room, but if a trade is made to keep from losing OL outright and could net a vet CB, he’d be happy with that too.

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Safeties (4)

Tyrann Mathieu, Juan Thornhill, Daniel Sorensen, Will Parks

PS: Armani Watts, Devon Key

The front 3 are set. This projection has Parks on the Active Roster, but it might well be either Watts or even Key. However, Parks ability to play, CB, Slot, and both Safety positions, likely means he’s the keeper.

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Special Teams (3)

Placekicker – Harrison Butker

Punter – Tommy Townsend

Long Snapper – James Winchester

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These three seem to be written in stone.

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Two Additional Players

On the PUP to open the Season: OT/G Kyle Long and on the IR DT Malik Herring (will be out for the whole season)

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That’s 53, unless our counting is off. Let us know where we went wrong, or give us your take.

Go Chiefs!

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David Bell and Laddie Morse — ArrowheadOne

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